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February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2


WxUSAF

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Pretty impressive mean 850's on the EPS d10-15. 0c line all the way down in SC @ d15. With the mean h5/850 panels it looks like we would most likely be snow and not rain with any precip that falls after March 3rd. Mean surface temps are in the mid 40's d11-15. That's an impressive mean for long leads in March. 

Bob, we are going to be reading about crazy stuff in Europe first,  then it will be our turn, J/K about a possible Ash Wednesday 1962 type storm, but you never know what might happen.  

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1 hour ago, poolz1 said:

Didn't 10/11 fail us?  I know NE got hammered but nothing notable sticks out in my mind around here. But, thats not really saying much.

Jan 2011 was the only big storm and  it happened right as the -nao flipped then winter was over. We had some bad luck that year. It could have easily produced 2 good storms. 

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Jan 2011 was the only big storm and  it happened right as the -nao flipped then winter was over. We had some bad luck that year. It could have easily produced 2 good storms. 

Are you talking about the upper level bowling ball that came through at the beginning of rush hour and dumped 6 to 10 inches over a 6 hour period? That storm was some of the heaviest snow rates I've ever seen. Took me 5 hours to get  from Frederick to Hagerstown..

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

Never did any research into this storm in 1962.  Wow.  Must have been the ultimate block with everything lined up with perfection.  Anyone here live through it?  

Was 9 years old and had just moved to Salisbury from OC and it wrecked OC and we could not get to the old house for a month 

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I looked at all March's since 1950 that had significant west based blocking during the first half of march to see what the outcomes were...

These were the months and the snowfall at BWI

1951: T

1952: 7"

1954: 1.5"

1957: 1.4"

1958: 13.7"

1960: 21.6"

1962: 13.6"

1965: 8.4"

1969: 7.8"

1970: 1.9"

1971: 2.0"

1981: .3"

1999: 7.6"

2001: T

2005: .4"

2006: T

2013: 3.2"

A few of the fail years there were huge storms that hit NW of 95 like March 1971 and 1981.  2005 March had no snow but there were 2 snowstorms at the tail end of February that happened as the blocking was getting going.  

But not all of those are great matches to the upcoming pattern... (at least as shown on guidance).  In the next post I am going to post the H5 for all these years and we can see which worked and which didn't.  

 

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These were the big winners with over 12"

1958.gif.08d6ee9859b5f77e7dfba17970a1f425.gif1960.gif.f804af7e7b5953b9ed24f4e8b78a9bcb.gif1962.gif.56cd3bcfefcc3606e6247b09d57fd3e1.gif

These were OK with some snow...between 3.5" and 8.4"

1952.gif.74017b814a0b91515f3bc716f862eacf.gif1965.gif.4ee4e20f7dba2d4c6839e9818db829f4.gif1969.gif.143ab22013e0c2c2ba1976ef7ec0ef57.gif1999.gif.db431470fe89861b7148bda41213b590.gif

2005.gif.2d6ef078e088fcbb85ad9eb8a38d772f.gif

2013.gif.5cccc485ed2b196502d10c4cbb27ef90.gif

These March blocks failed to produce much if any snow... 

1951.gif.c6dd32c0ada1bc13f55e88d8955ce40d.gif1954.gif.ae02048e129d39202e83deaf97f229be.gif1957.gif.0fe527bf89b45e4e5397c554795513b0.gif1970.gif.5e6675c50937b392659dab7146da250b.gif1971.gif.b56d4f2b93ff9f14c9d6339c6adf7c67.gif1981.gif.7773b1193d3b95bda923e5dbed49fc34.gif2001.gif.37b0ed8220dc815ea22db9828aa47c05.gif2006.gif.1f939caac33069fd79f25226c482c715.gif

I included 2005 in the middle group because there were 2 snows right at the tail end of February that were part of the blocking episode.  

I have my own ideas of which look closest to what the EPS and GEFS are spitting out right now but I will let everyone judge for themselves.  I will say a few of the fail blocks look great and just featured bad luck like 2001.  

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Im getting frustrated at the models showing a severe block and cutters...like the 240 ggem

Im pretty sure several people myself included warned against getting too caught up in ops runs verbatim in the LR until we see how this overall pattern actually evolves. Many of the same people also stated that the better shot at cashing in would likely be later on as the massive block weakens or retreats with a possible Archambault event being our Holy Grail in this pattern evolution.

 

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4 hours ago, Maestrobjwa said:

The comment you deleted about the 50/50? (I happened to see it, lol) What did you mean, exactly?

The gefs keeps bombing something off New England and either fujiwara or simply merging and pulling the 50/50 low way too far southwest. If it's too close it suppresses everything. I deleted because it's still too far out to worry about it yet. But that's why the lack of snow on the ensembles long range. A few hits with the day 10 storm but then hit or miss they retrograde the 50/50 and it's suppression city after that. 

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at least one good thing  coming  out of this warm, wet cycle, there is a very big dent being put into our drought. The resevoirs on RT 29 going  toward DC are now  at least partially filled, and we appear to have at least 2 more week of copious amounts  of  rain. Good  for  everyone. Happy wednesday , good  day  to  all

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2 hours ago, Ji said:

Im getting frustrated at the models showing a severe block and cutters...like the 240 ggem

In case you haven't already, you should mentally plan for an unmitigated disaster in spite of the block.  As others have pointed out, we can easily see a shut out pattern in this epic Atlantic block.  Just look at the 6z GFS.  Sure, its an op run and will change but it takes us to 10 March without a fantasy storm or storms being pushed to our south.  You can see that even with the block the crappy Pac is pushing the trough too far west because the ridge is too far off the west coast.  The result is storms cutting west of the block on a conveyor belt and the downstream SE ridge as a result of the Pac.  Yes these storms eventually hit the block and begin to cut east but at about 43N meaning NE can benefit.  I am no expert but this is not what we want to see despite it being an op run.  Until that changes, if it does, the result will be the aforementioned modeled disaster on the op runs. 

The GEFS does NOT look like this at least to my untrained eye and looks better at h5. 

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44 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

In case you haven't already, you should mentally plan for an unmitigated disaster in spite of the block.  As others have pointed out, we can easily see a shut out pattern in this epic Atlantic block.  Just look at the 6z GFS.  Sure, its an op run and will change but it takes us to 10 March without a fantasy storm or storms being pushed to our south.  You can see that even with the block the crappy Pac is pushing the trough too far west because the ridge is too far off the west coast.  The result is storms cutting west of the block on a conveyor belt and the downstream SE ridge as a result of the Pac.  Yes these storms eventually hit the block and begin to cut east but at about 43N meaning NE can benefit.  I am no expert but this is not what we want to see despite it being an op run.  Until that changes, if it does, the result will be the aforementioned modeled disaster on the op runs. 

The GEFS does NOT look like this at least to my untrained eye and looks better at h5. 

I would not put any stock in what an op run depicts 7+ days out, especially with the pattern undergoing a major change. In recent runs, the GEFS and EPS have been consistently showing the western trough retrograding off the west coast, placing the downstream ridge in a much more favorable position for our region. We continue to see great h5 looks for the first week of March on ensemble guidance. Patience though- it will likely be at least 5-7 days at before we are tracking a discrete threat.

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1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said:

I think PSU was referring to DT being behind on his recognition of the potential for the east coast. The modeled pattern did not just suddenly become more favorable overnight, as he seemed to suggest in his tweet.

thank goodness i have you to keep me straight. 

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49 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

In case you haven't already, you should mentally plan for an unmitigated disaster in spite of the block.  As others have pointed out, we can easily see a shut out pattern in this epic Atlantic block.  Just look at the 6z GFS.  Sure, its an op run and will change but it takes us to 10 March without a fantasy storm or storms being pushed to our south.  You can see that even with the block the crappy Pac is pushing the trough too far west because the ridge is too far off the west coast.  The result is storms cutting west of the block on a conveyor belt and the downstream SE ridge as a result of the Pac.  Yes these storms eventually hit the block and begin to cut east but at about 43N meaning NE can benefit.  I am no expert but this is not what we want to see despite it being an op run.  Until that changes, if it does, the result will be the aforementioned modeled disaster on the op runs. 

The GEFS does NOT look like this at least to my untrained eye and looks better at h5. 

The gfs op is showing a radically different progression. It retrogrades the block southwest so much that it links up with the eastern ridge and then gets partially absorbed and weakens. That's a disaster. But it's also not like anything else or it's own ensembles which retro the block west which encourages a trough under it and then eventually link it up with a pna ridge. That progression will give us some shots. 

We probably lose an early threat as the block crosses Greenland because there is an uber ridge over the east. The first few days of the blocking regime are wasted just getting that worked out. But as the block retrogrades across Baffin and into Canada that would be our window for something to cut under and amplify on the coast. Then if the block links with a pna ridge we could see a full latitude trough dig in the east and a storm could try to run the coast. Depending on how quickly things start to progress after maybe more then one shot but the clock will be running out by then. 

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1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

In case you haven't already, you should mentally plan for an unmitigated disaster in spite of the block.  As others have pointed out, we can easily see a shut out pattern in this epic Atlantic block.  Just look at the 6z GFS.  Sure, its an op run and will change but it takes us to 10 March without a fantasy storm or storms being pushed to our south.  You can see that even with the block the crappy Pac is pushing the trough too far west because the ridge is too far off the west coast.  The result is storms cutting west of the block on a conveyor belt and the downstream SE ridge as a result of the Pac.  Yes these storms eventually hit the block and begin to cut east but at about 43N meaning NE can benefit.  I am no expert but this is not what we want to see despite it being an op run.  Until that changes, if it does, the result will be the aforementioned modeled disaster on the op runs. 

The GEFS does NOT look like this at least to my untrained eye and looks better at h5. 

Just looked a bit ago and thought the same thing.  Wonky evolution, and while the block is trying, its not working.  That to me is why i wanted better ridging in the pac nw.  I know some suggested we dont want that, but from what I'm seeing...we dont want what its currently spitting out either.  Its one run and things are realigning, so I'm not too worried. yet.

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4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My dig was at DT not you. 

Ninjad by Cape 

LOL yeah I know. WxUSAF mentioned something about it yesterday. I really haven't been following a lot, Ian tweeted me yesterday about getting 30" in March or some non-sense. That's my extent of knowledge. 

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

LOL yeah I know. WxUSAF mentioned something about it yesterday. I really haven't been following a lot, Ian tweeted me yesterday about getting 30" in March or some non-sense. That's my extent of knowledge. 

Short version the euro has been way late to the party. So DT was late then acted like it's a new development even though we've been talking about it for over a week. 

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Just now, pasnownut said:

Just looked a bit ago and thought the same thing.  Wonky evolution, and while the block is trying, its not working.  That to me is why i wanted better ridging in the pac nw.  I know some suggested we dont want that, but from what I'm seeing...we dont want what its currently spitting out either.  Its one run and things are realigining, so I'm not too worried. yet.

I agree. Not worried really as I don't have much expectation either way.  But as you mention even the most stout block in the perfect location wont do anything for us if the Pac looks like that. This is fun to track and learn however what a block can or cannot do for our situation.  The statement "if we could only get some help in the Atlantic with just some blocking" is always talked about.  

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