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February Mid/Long Range Discussion 2


WxUSAF

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31 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

It's an interesting period (stating obvious...duh...lol). There's always a chance it's more active than I/we think. That Pac NW trough could "feed the flow" with tighter spacing. The "downhill" look and weird tracks aren't exactly a good thing. It can be a shred factory. OTOH- it also means cold highs anchored so maybe it isn't just a go big pattern. Meaning we could get some light events light overrunning if a shortwave taps the gulf but gets shredded as it approaches. I really don't and won't claim to know how it's going to shake out so laser precision disco provides limited value until we get closer and see things more clearly. 

We can all agree that big storm potential is there. These types of patterns in late winter have a history of doing big things. Take a look at analog #3 on the CPC d11+ plot...heh...

500hgt_comp_sup814.gif

March 1958 as the number one analog is interesting also. There was a decent snow NW of 95 mid month 1958 also before the HECS storm. 

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

March 1958 as the number one analog is interesting also. There was a decent snow NW of 95 mid month 1958 also before the HECS storm. 

D8+ analogs have the March 2009 analog near the top. Plenty of "potential". Dissecting ops in the LR right now is at the bottom of my list of things to do though. haha

500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

D8+ analogs have the March 2009 analog near the top. Plenty of "potential". Dissecting ops in the LR right now is at the bottom of my list of things to do though. haha

500hgt_comp_sup610.gif

Nope with you 100%. The look were seeing across all guidance is money. It's textbook for big storms. But there is no chance the gfs op will get details even close to right at day 11-15 so wasting time worrying about the run to run solutions is silly. We will probably get teased big time over the next week but once this comes into range then I'll start trying to figure out how it might play out. 

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3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Nope with you 100%. The look were seeing across all guidance is money. It's textbook for big storms. But there is no chance the gfs op will get details even close to right at day 11-15 so wasting time worrying about the run to run solutions is silly. We will probably get teased big time over the next week but once this comes into range then I'll start trying to figure out how it might play out. 

It's going to be a waiting game. I'm good with that. I've pretty much just conceded that there's not much chance for anything in these parts through the rest of Feb and probably the first 3-5 days of March. I have plenty of stuff to have fun with other than winter wx until we get inside a reasonable window. I'm enjoying the fact that the first week of March is "just the beginning". Should be pretty fun around here in the not too distant future. I'm pretty confident we see more snow  before the door is closed on the season. I had a blast on Saturday. Doesn't have to be a massive storm or big event to get a fix. The heavy rates on Saturday were memorable and very enjoyable. It was a legit winter scene for the balance of the afternoon even if ratios sucked.

One big event in March would push this winter up to a C- at least. I don't judge winter on snow alone like many and I'm sure tons of people would never give this winter a C- even if we get a big event. This winter has felt like winter plenty of times. There were plenty of things to track even though we didn't get a flush hit. Accum snow has been hard to come by but I still enjoyed the big cold/frozen ponds. Considering we can go wire to wire and never get that cold pretty easily, this winter has performed in other metrics than just snowfall alone. It's fun to dream about getting a couple big hits in March. Before 2013 March was a lamb much more often than a lion. It's been a lion lately. Doesn't matter why and I really don't care. I just like snow. Bring it!

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29 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Sure it is. Someone who refuses to enjoy 70 and sun, preferring to pull their hair and gnash their teeth while watching the models for the faintest glimpse of a pattern change in the nearer term, has issues.

On topic: The block is looking like the real deal now. Good stuff, and it’ll get interesting in these parts the first time an op shows a crawling monster...which turns out to only be a cockroach. :lol:

not here to argue, but thats purley your opinion.  You didnt state the bolded part in your first statement.

I'd venture most of us will just roll with it, but that does not for one second mean we have to enjoy it....in February.  

For winter enthusiasts like myself, 70 degrees sucks in any winter month....thats my opinion, and it wont change....EVER, but i will put my shorts on, and accept what I cant control.

It would be nice to see something come of this pending -NAO.  Give me a decent march and then spring can come.  

 

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@Bob Chill yeah I guess I've been focusing on the shortening of wavelenghts, an the buckling and how things wouldnt necessarily be zooming across the conus.  Hence my big storm idea.  if PNA stays neg (ish), then in my mind, you may be right as the flow could be a little flatter and more progressive....but hopefully underneath us in the east. 

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For giggles...the GEFS has one member with a blocked/stalled monster d13-16. Snows for 2+ days with the low wobbling just off the coast. 1-2'+ for the whole region. There's another one in there that destroys PA/northward with a similar stalled progression. Would be nice to see 10+ members showing something like those. Maybe in a week...

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1 minute ago, Thanatos_I_Am said:

I am not sure if this question was already answered, but can we expect models to perform better at a longer range with the upcoming pattern? The flow should slow down, no?

Sort of... but not until we are inside of 7-10 days. The pattern is similar to others where a discrete event starts showing repeatedly on ops from d7ish. We're quite a ways from that lead time and that's assuming that the blocking sets up on schedule. I don't expect much accuracy or a legitimate threat to start showing up for a week at least. Definitely in a waiting period and nothing specific can be expected to carry any type of accuracy for the time being. 

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Flat can work. 1962 and 2013 were flat. I know D.C. Proper got screwed in 2013 but much of the forum had a good month. One system hit west and south and the other just north. But the flow was flat under blocking. You don't need super amped h5 to get good precip in march. Baroclinicity alone gets it done often. 

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22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Flat can work. 1962 and 2013 were flat. I know D.C. Proper got screwed in 2013 but much of the forum had a good month. One system hit west and south and the other just north. But the flow was flat under blocking. You don't need super amped h5 to get good precip in march. Baroclinicity alone gets it done often. 

fair point but if we dont get a stall in the flow, we dont get a monster, we get stuff like we just had over the weekend with a little less worry.  Im sure 99% of us would be fine with what you state, but I'm just thinking seasonal progression and wavelengths and what a-NAO can add to that equation.   

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1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

For giggles...the GEFS has one member with a blocked/stalled monster d13-16. Snows for 2+ days with the low wobbling just off the coast. 1-2'+ for the whole region. There's another one in there that destroys PA/northward with a similar stalled progression. Would be nice to see 10+ members showing something like those. Maybe in a week...

the best part about this is that with blocking and slow progress...once a storm is modeled 9 days out...it will never dissappear LOL

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20 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

LoL. I can't remember a single time I've seen this type of north american pattern in the past. 5 closed upper level lows co-existing. Blocking is neat. 

ecmwf_z500a_nhem_11.png

the day 10 storm on euro is interesting...wish it wasnt at such a north latitude starting off 

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4 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Tool? Lol let's not throw insults around on the forum. It's a fact sun angle is rising, and that's not a benefit to snow stickage. 

We just had street accumulation with 34 degree temps...it’s the dumbest argument

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17 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Problem with March is the sun angle. Even a strong storm is going to have issues sticking on the streets during the day time, especially with the upcoming torch.

Every year its the same comment.  Yes, 0.1" QPF on March 13th falling over 10 hours between 8a and 6p is not going to accumulate on the roads.  But a 'strong' storm will have no issues accumulating on the roads during the day in March as we've seen countless times over the past few years in our lucky March events.  

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8 minutes ago, Subtropics said:

Tool? Lol let's not throw insults around on the forum. It's a fact sun angle is rising, and that's not a benefit to snow stickage. 

We all know this, but there are so many ways for that to be overcome. We just had the roads cave when it was 34 degrees! Just 2 days before, temps were in the 60s/70s. During the early December storm, there was absolutely no road stickage, and we got twice the snowfall. Rates > sun angle or temperatures in any given scenario. That was the reason areas from DC to Baltimore busted in the March 6th 2013 storm, while Richmond got near half a foot. A strong storm can easily overcome this. 

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