Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 17 minutes ago, rcflyermd68 said: does the pattern mr. homenuk show produce the claasic east coast storm it seems everyone is suggesting possible --good day to all It opens the door for a slow moving coastal track and the block works better for the mid atlantic than places further north. Just like with any long range pattern recognition...better chance at a good storm /= a good storm. We'll know a lot more in a week. Just a bunch of educated guessing for the time being. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcflyermd68 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 thank you for your enlightened response mr chill.appreciate it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 1 hour ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: NAM has a low of 60 Wednesday in DC. I think we'll hit 80 Record high and record min in one day. It's safe to say winter is over for most people outsiide of the higher elevations. If not, that'd be pretty extreme although it wouldn't surprise me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 27 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: Record high and record min in one day. It's safe to say winter is over for most people outsiide of the higher elevations. If not, that'd be pretty extreme although it wouldn't surprise me. Really? Because of one record high in Feb? Cmon even you don’t believe that. Wall to wall snow no...over? No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Really? Because of one record high in Feb? Cmon even you don’t believe that. Wall to wall snow no...over? No There are actually a few days in succession that are near record highs. However the 500mb heights are what gets me the most. There will be cloud-cover and highs will not reach their maximum. By and large it was already warm before this pattern shift. I am skeptical of any sustained cold which is needed for big late season snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Usually storms occur at the end of -NAO events not in the middle. HM seems confident there will be a big east coast storm. Hopefully it is a 2016 storm and not a 2013 or 2015 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 What a sweet look. Could be some exciting times the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 34 minutes ago, Amped said: Usually storms occur at the end of -NAO events not in the middle. HM seems confident there will be a big east coast storm. Hopefully it is a 2016 storm and not a 2013 or 2015 storm. Plenty of moderate or significant storms do take place in the middle. Mecs and Hecs are more likely at the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 2 hours ago, Vice-Regent said: Record high and record min in one day. It's safe to say winter is over for most people outsiide of the higher elevations. If not, that'd be pretty extreme although it wouldn't surprise me. In march 1976 it was in the 70s a couple days before and after a 6-12" snowstorm across our area. That's not the only example but it might be the best since that was a crappy Niña year too. Your post has no factual support to back it up. Just your typical nonsense. I find it hard to believe your as ignorant as you pretend to be you're probably just trolling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 If you relish and are seeking warm weather then don't post in a winter weather discussion thread. There is Banter for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Seeing a handful of GEFS members with decent snow in the Carolinas days 11-15 over the last couple runs. Something else we will probably see showing up on the op runs in the coming days- suppressed events. More and more it looks like this block will be the real deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 3 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: Seeing a handful of GEFS members with decent snow in the Carolinas days 11-15 over the last couple runs. Something else we will probably see showing up on the op runs in the coming days- suppressed events. More and more it looks like this block will be the real deal. Right where we want it lol. If the block is legit I think we may be in a prime location. Seeing esembles hit the Carolinas and southern VA 10+ days out is probably what we need. I' m pretty stoked for the first half of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 That is one impressive block. And it will likely have to be that strong and in that ideal position to force ridging westward with a generally hostile pacific. Not as nice as the GEFS out west quite yet, which is more amped with the ridge and the axis is in a more favorable position over the Rockies at day 15, but the EPS seems to be moving in that direction. EPS looking colder at 850 and surface in the east with each run as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 31 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That is one impressive block. And it will likely have to be that strong and in that ideal position to force ridging westward with a generally hostile pacific. Not as nice as the GEFS out west quite yet, which is more amped with the ridge and the axis is in a more favorable position over the Rockies at day 15, but the EPS seems to be moving in that direction. EPS looking colder at 850 and surface in the east with each run as well. Yep, not there yet to the extent of the GEFS, but hopefully it will continue to improve. There are even slight signals that beyond March 5 th the Pac improves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 I wonder how much snowfall DC has ever received after 580 heights have happened, it's more variation this year but I imagine it's a pretty good slice at Winter -NAO or not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 16 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said: I wonder how much snowfall DC has ever received after 580 heights have happened, it's more variation this year but I imagine it's a pretty good slice at Winter -NAO or not You should research that...dig deep and get back to us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 27 minutes ago, frd said: Yep, not there yet to the extent of the GEFS, but hopefully it will continue to improve. There are even slight signals that beyond March 5 th the Pac improves. We will see on the PAC side. I am not expecting much more than it becomes/stays serviceable for a time, as opposed to hostile. Even the CFS has recently moved away from the idea of a nice PAC look, after many runs where it looked pretty favorable for early March. The upcoming pattern all hinges on a legit -NAO...a big time mega block that retrogrades into the Davis Strait and Canada. If the models are overdoing that look, and the PAC is typical Nina crap, we may very well end up with another super awesome looking modeled NA pattern that doesn't actually materialize and produce. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: We will see on the PAC side. I am not expecting much more than it becomes/stays serviceable for a time, as opposed to hostile. Even the CFS has recently moved away from the idea of a nice PAC look, after many runs where it looked pretty favorable for early March. The upcoming pattern all hinges on a legit -NAO...a big time mega block that retrogrades into the Davis Strait and Canada. If the models are overdoing that look, and the PAC is typical Nina crap, we may very well end up with another super awesome looking modeled pattern that doesn't actually materialize and produce. I am not sure where the CFS got that look from though, still improvements in the Pac would be great. And the MJO does look to pass into phases 8 and 1, although according to Isotherm it basically is in phase one now using his assessments and looking at other data. Its posted on the NY thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 1 minute ago, frd said: I am not sure where the CFS got that look from though, still improvements in the Pac would be great. And the MJO does look to pass into phases 8 and 1, although according to Isotherm it basically is in phase one now using his assessments and looking at other data. Its posted on the NY thread. The thing that will aid in producing a decent PAC is the modeled big-time NA block can retrograde things to the point where even though there is a big Aleutian ridge, the western trough is pushed off the west coast far enough that the ridging out in front ends up in a pretty good spot- like the GEFS is suggesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Cosgrove does not believe in the big cold coming and seriously it's been since 1/8 that the return of cold is "7 to 10 days away" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Just now, Tenman Johnson said: Cosgrove does not believe in the big cold coming and seriously it's been since 1/8 that the return of cold is "7 to 10 days away" Good for him. Who does think BIG COLD is coming, other than maybe Bastardi? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: Cosgrove does not believe in the big cold coming and seriously it's been since 1/8 that the return of cold is "7 to 10 days away" A block doesn’t necessarily mean “big cold”...’09-‘10 wasn’t especially cold... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: A block doesn’t necessarily mean “big cold”...’09-‘10 wasn’t especially cold... Exactly. And we dont need big time cold. We need a mechanism to keep storms from tracking NW, which is the tendency in a Nina..as we have all seen in recent weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 16 minutes ago, Tenman Johnson said: Cosgrove does not believe in the big cold coming and seriously it's been since 1/8 that the return of cold is "7 to 10 days away" I believe the general idea is, and has been, cold enough for what most of us desire, but not big cold. No huge - EPO flow, but cold enough from the source regions that we could cash in on snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 21 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: The thing that will aid in producing a decent PAC is the modeled big-time NA block can retrograde things to the point where even though there is a big Aleutian ridge, the western trough is pushed off the west coast far enough that the ridging out in front ends up in a pretty good spot- like the GEFS is suggesting. Exactly, and there is a Pac retraction going on as well, so we may be able to bend the flow enough to accomplish that more ideal, if temporary, ridging out West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 Now that is what a good block can do. Takes 3 days to make it up the east coast. Stall off coast of NC for 36 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 1 hour ago, frd said: I believe the general idea is, and has been, cold enough for what most of us desire, but not big cold. No huge - EPO flow, but cold enough from the source regions that we could cash in on snow. Well DC's average high at the beginning of March is in the low 50's. So if we are managing below 32 degrees for a high, that kind of is, big cold. A bit of cold won't really get us there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 7 hours ago, frd said: This is getting serious :-) But first going to the beach on this Wednesday .... tan my ghostly complexion a bit Thank goodness. South Carolina needs to replenish their snow-pack from January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 29 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Thank goodness. South Carolina needs to replenish their snow-pack from January. I take it as a - 5 with our bad luck eventually comes out to a - 2.5 and a snow for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 18, 2018 Share Posted February 18, 2018 39 minutes ago, Mdecoy said: Well DC's average high at the beginning of March is in the low 50's. So if we are managing below 32 degrees for a high, that kind of is, big cold. A bit of cold won't really get us there. Well..not really. Sure, if you are comparing cloudless days then acquiring a -20f departure is difficult feat. Give me a dew of 26 and a hight of 47, 12 hours before a deepening low off the coast and it's game on. After the mauling, departures will read -8 for the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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