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Baroclinic Zone

Super Soaker Sunday (& Monday)

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16 hours ago, frostman said:

WRF from PSU shows the cold coming back on Sunday .. 

rt_d3_sfc_Large_71.png

GFS is precarious too if you tack off a couple of degrees from 2m. Just keep that QPF down there...I don’t need anymore liquid on top of frozen ground.

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 You must be getting close to some type of QPF record since the end of summer.  

 

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I’ll have to take a look

Since Sept 1st, 22.17" of precip.  Quite a lot.

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8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Um, for  tomorrow and Monday.  2"+ coming

? Tomorrows not my birthday and meh on the rain, it's winter no one is flooding other than typical poor road drainage

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

? Tomorrows not my birthday and meh on the rain, it's winter no one is flooding other than typical poor road drainage

ummm....?

Flood Watch
National Weather Service Taunton MA
215 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

MAZ017>022-RIZ001>007-110315-
/O.NEW.KBOX.FA.A.0003.180211T0300Z-180212T0300Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
Northern Bristol MA-Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-
Southern Bristol MA-Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-
Northwest Providence RI-Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-
Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-Washington RI-Newport RI-
Including the cities of Taunton, Brockton, Plymouth, Fall River,
New Bedford, Mattapoisett, Chatham, Falmouth, Provincetown,
Foster, Smithfield, Providence, Coventry, West Greenwich,
East Greenwich, Warwick, West Warwick, Bristol, Narragansett,
Westerly, and Newport
215 PM EST Sat Feb 10 2018

...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 10 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH
SUNDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Taunton has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of southeastern Massachusetts and
  Rhode Island, including the following areas, in southeastern
  Massachusetts, Barnstable, Bristol, and Plymouth. In Rhode
  Island, Bristol, Kent, Newport, Providence, and Washington.

* From 10 PM EST this evening through Sunday evening

* Periods of rain will be heavy at times tonight into Sunday
  evening. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches are anticipated but
  localized 2.50 to 3 inch amounts are possible. The greatest risk
  for these higher amounts will be near the south coast. This will
  bring the potential for pockets of urban and poor drainage
  street flooding.

* In addition...if the higher rainfall amounts materialize minor
  flooding would be possible at the Pawtuxet River at Cranston,
  the Pawcatuck River at Westerly, as well as the Wood River at
  Hope Valley. Some small streams and creeks may also experience
  minor flooding.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Flood Watch means there is a potential for flooding based on
current forecasts.

You should monitor later forecasts and be alert for possible
Flood Warnings. Those living in areas prone to flooding should be
prepared to take action should flooding develop.

&&

$$

Frank

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Lol minor flooding, means some parking lots along the river.  You pinned your rain event in Feb, can't remember anyone pinning a marginal flood event but hey stay safe

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Lol minor flooding, means some parking lots along the river.  You pinned your rain event in Feb, can't remember anyone pinning a marginal flood event but hey stay safe

Pinning a thread has zero to do with the severity/impact.  It's what ever is the most current event.  Someone piss on your b-day cheerios?  What else is there to discuss other than this rain event?

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10 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Pinning a thread has zero to do with the severity/impact.  It's what ever is the most current event.  Someone piss on your b-day cheerios?  What else is there to discuss other than this rain event?

Stay safe

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.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
* Periods of heavy rain tonight/Sunday near and south of MA Pike
* Flood Watch into Sunday evening for RI and SE MA

Tonight and Sunday...

Periods of rain are on tap for the region tonight through
Sunday. The heaviest rain is anticipated south of the MA
Turnpike and a Flood Watch has been posted across RI and SE MA.
We will break it down a bit more below.

1) Heavy Rainfall/Flooding Concerns:

The main idea is that several waves of low pressure will be
moving along a cold front as it sags south into southern New
England into Sunday. Guidance is showing rounds of strong
forcing/frontogenesis across the region. This will be coupled
with Pwats 3-4+ standard deviations above normal setting the
stage for heavy rainfall. The biggest uncertainty will be where
the boundary sets up and interacts with the low level jet. A
solid 1 to 2 inches of rain appears to be a good bet for most
locations, but our far northern zones may receive a bit less.
There is the potential for localized 2.50 to 3 inch amounts near
the south coast where forcing/Pwats will be highest. Again, it
all depends on where the boundary sets up which will come down
to the mesoscale. There is even a low risk for an embedded
thunderstorm or two given some marginal elevated instability
near the south coast.

We opted to issue a Flood Watch for RI and SE based on a few
factors. The MMEFS guidance was indicating at least the
possibility for some minor flooding at the Pawtuxet River at
Cranston, the Pawcatuck River at Westerly, as well as the Wood
River at Hope Valley. Some small streams and creeks may also
experience minor flooding if higher rainfall amounts are
realized. In addition, at least a partially frozen ground may
result in an increased risk for some urban and poor drainage
street flooding.

2) Temperatures:

We derived the temperature forecast from the high resolution
model data, which often performs well in these events. It
appears that the surface cold front will drop to near the south
coast by daybreak Sunday. This will result shallow cool air
working south and temperatures falling into the middle 30s to
lower 40s away from the south coast and holding relatively
steady for most of Sunday. Fortunately, it looks like
temperatures will probably remain just above freezing to prevent
any icing even in the high terrain. Nonetheless, it will be a
raw and rainy Sunday for much of the region.

3) Fog:

Areas of fog will impact the region tonight and Sunday. It may
become dense at times in any lulls in the rainfall to the north
of the boundary. There may also be some dense fog on the
Cape/Islands south of the boundary given high dewpoint air
moving over the relatively cold ocean. Later shifts may need to
consider a dense fog advisory, but periods of heavy rain will
likely cause improvement in visibility at times so confidence
was not high enough to hoist at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Sunday night...

Rain may persist for at least part of Sunday evening especially
southeast of the Boston to Providence corridor. The activity
should come to an end in most areas after midnight, except it
may linger a bit longer across the far southeast New England
coast.

Milder air will likely briefly mix down at least along
the coast plain during the evening, sending temperatures well
up into the 40s to near 50 for a time before chillier air works
back into the region. There is a low risk for a period of
southwest wind gusts of 40 to 50 mph across the southeast New
England coast if temperatures get milder than expected given
strong LLJ, but soundings indicate a pretty good inversion so
played it conservative for now.

Lastly, temps should be near or below freezing across the
interior by daybreak Monday. This may result in some patchy
black ice if we do not dry out in time, something to keep in
mind for the Monday morning commute.

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I would start filling the bags now Steve. 

Stay safe, hopefully being stuck inside with the kids doesn't bother you as much as you said.

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Stay safe, hopefully being stuck inside with the kids doesn't bother you as much as you said.

We enjoy Spring today. Deep winter rolls on.

  • Like 1

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3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Enjoy the rain, it's the only type of precipitation you'll be experiencing in Moosup for the next 10 days.

Thankfully I will force myself to take some time off and be on snow while you concentrate on watching your grass green up. Enjoy the mud it's the only mud you got

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets do this!

Poor kids Dad screaming at them all weekend because he couldn't look out the window at snow.

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