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moneypitmike

The Pope's 'And There You Have It" SWFE Feb 7 2018

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I can't see hours and hours of moderate rain at ORH...I can maybe buy a brief 33-34F right at the end when they are starting to mix out at FROPA? Even then though not sure since the backside of this doesn't look to have a big warm sector into E NY state that we often see that gets shoved over the Berkshires and ORH hills during FROPA.

ORH, you say racing towards you, I understand quick mover, main "bulk" done say by 7pm??? thanks ahead of time

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah I can't see hours and hours of moderate rain at ORH...I can maybe buy a brief 33-34F right at the end when they are starting to mix out at FROPA? Even then though not sure since the backside of this doesn't look to have a big warm sector into E NY state that we often see that gets shoved over the Berkshires and ORH hills during FROPA.

So you're predicting an ice storm for ORH? BOX only has 4" of snow for ORH now -- that leaves a lot of the QPF as something else, and you're saying it's all frozen...

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

 

So you're predicting an ice storm for ORH? BOX only has 4" of snow for ORH now -- that leaves a lot of the QPF as something else, and you're saying it's all frozen...

That is correct...almost all or all their QPF will be frozen/freezing. I wouldn't say I'm predicting an "ice storm" though...that sort of implies they get a half inch of ice....they won't get that much because of residence time. They'll prob get about 4-5 tenths of their QPF as ice or so...and that will only equal about 1-2 tenths of accretion given the efficiency of accretion is lower during heavy precip.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

That’s crazy. All snow here. Big fat boys

Just started snowing but you can tell there's a battle going on. Just in the time I'm typing I had fat to fine flakes with sleet still moving in.

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4 minutes ago, Nikoss427 said:

Just started snowing but you can tell there's a battle going on. Just in the time I'm typing I had fat to fine flakes with sleet still moving in.

Prob some saturation issues above 700 initially...the mid-levels around 700-800 are marginal to support ice crystal formation so we're relying on seed-feeder....when you started initially, you may have had a dry pocket of air above 700 that caused the sleet....but you should be all snow the next 3 hours or so as the whole column saturates rapidly.

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