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The Pope's 'And There You Have It" SWFE Feb 7 2018

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@CoastalWx

@ORH_wxman

@dendrite

Nice jobs guys seeing the fake surface warmth in seascoast of NH. I was wrong about that. I underestimated the quickness of the 850 mb warmth (although it was real, as per the mesos), and slightly overestimated the low level warmth, in ORH to PSM. In terms of sensible weather it was important - ORH had several hours of freezing rain before flipping to plain rain for a few hours, and KPSM never went above freezing - it appears the low level CF made it as far north as seabrook/Hampton beach but never made it passed there before the wind backed again. You guys all pointed that out and it was a great call. We had quite a bit of freezing rain here in NH and you guys saw that potential whereas I did not. Those areas right along the margin of the CF were a tough call, and guidance was clearly not reliable with trying to pin point exactly where the CF would end up and how far northwest it would progress before collapsing back to the SE. For myself, in looking at the scope of the error it looks like I approximated the CF would make it about 20 miles further NW than it did, in actuality...

Experience with local climo clearly helped you guys with this forecast. Cheers to a good forecast, and standing your ground. :clap:

Looking forward to the next one.

 

Well regardless of how it all turned out, and who was more right, etc.  I thought you laid out your thinking clearly and it led to an interesting conversation that I learned from, by causing others to explain more deeply what they thought would happen.  Isn't that when a board like this is operating at its best?

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@CoastalWx

@ORH_wxman

@dendrite

Nice jobs guys seeing the fake surface warmth in seascoast of NH. I was wrong about that. I underestimated the quickness of the 850 mb warmth (although it was real, as per the mesos), and slightly overestimated the low level warmth, in ORH to PSM. In terms of sensible weather it was important - ORH had several hours of freezing rain before flipping to plain rain for a few hours, and KPSM never went above freezing - it appears the low level CF made it as far north as seabrook/Hampton beach but never made it passed there before the wind backed again. You guys all pointed that out and it was a great call. We had quite a bit of freezing rain here in NH and you guys saw that potential whereas I did not. Those areas right along the margin of the CF were a tough call, and guidance was clearly not reliable with trying to pin point exactly where the CF would end up and how far northwest it would progress before collapsing back to the SE. For myself, in looking at the scope of the error it looks like I approximated the CF would make it about 20 miles further NW than it did, in actuality...

Experience with local climo clearly helped you guys with this forecast. Cheers to a good forecast, and standing your ground. :clap:

Looking forward to the next one.

 

You win some; you lose some. You're not afraid to challenge the general consensus here and I like that. You've had some good calls here over the last 2 years too.

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CoastalWx

CoastalWx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@CoastalWx

@ORH_wxman

@dendrite

Nice jobs guys seeing the fake surface warmth in seascoast of NH. I was wrong about that. I underestimated the quickness of the 850 mb warmth (although it was real, as per the mesos), and slightly overestimated the low level warmth, in ORH to PSM. In terms of sensible weather it was important - ORH had several hours of freezing rain before flipping to plain rain for a few hours, and KPSM never went above freezing - it appears the low level CF made it as far north as seabrook/Hampton beach but never made it passed there before the wind backed again. You guys all pointed that out and it was a great call. We had quite a bit of freezing rain here in NH and you guys saw that potential whereas I did not. Those areas right along the margin of the CF were a tough call, and guidance was clearly not reliable with trying to pin point exactly where the CF would end up and how far northwest it would progress before collapsing back to the SE. For myself, in looking at the scope of the error it looks like I approximated the CF would make it about 20 miles further NW than it did, in actuality...

Experience with local climo clearly helped you guys with this forecast. Cheers to a good forecast, and standing your ground. :clap:

Looking forward to the next one.

 

Thanks J, but I think you had very valid points too. You stuck to your guns which is definitely admirable. It's just that for years of looking at these things, you just recognize model biases with certain setups.  Even with high resolution guidance, the biases still show up. It's nice to know that humans still can provide an advantage over ever improving guidance!

Also in the realm of honesty, I probably should not have been so definite on taking the under of 32 at ORH. Although I did explain why it could happen (post front mixing), probably not the best idea to be so definitive about it. Good event from a forecast stabdpoint. I definitely expected more snow north of the pike, but the last minute trend of warmth in the mid levels frequently happens with these.

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks J, but I think you had very valid points too. You stuck to your guns which is definitely admirable. It's just that for years of looking at these things, you just recognize model biases with certain setups.  Even with high resolution guidance, the biases still show up. It's nice to know that humans still can provide an advantage over ever improving guidance!

Also in the realm of honesty, I probably should not have been so definite on taking the under of 32 at ORH. Although I did explain why it could happen (post front mixing), probably not the best idea to be so definitive about it. Good event from a forecast stabdpoint. I definitely expected more snow north of the pike, but the last minute trend of warmth in the mid levels frequently happens with these.

Didn’t ORH have 1 hour of above 32 like here? 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Thanks J, but I think you had very valid points too. You stuck to your guns which is definitely admirable. It's just that for years of looking at these things, you just recognize model biases with certain setups.  Even with high resolution guidance, the biases still show up. It's nice to know that humans still can provide an advantage over ever improving guidance!

Also in the realm of honesty, I probably should not have been so definite on taking the under of 32 at ORH. Although I did explain why it could happen (post front mixing), probably not the best idea to be so definitive about it. Good event from a forecast stabdpoint. I definitely expected more snow north of the pike, but the last minute trend of warmth in the mid levels frequently happens with these.

Agree on all points.

Yes, the speed of the mid level warmth is definitely something I've made a mental note for going forward. The mesos were also much more reliable in this regard, particularly relative to the surface temps, and the progression of the surface CF.

I think you're also right about my LI climo PTSD :lol: - although being in here for a few years definitely has me on the path to a cure :thumbsup: ! In retrospect, looking at this event, expecting the quick flip to rain from the coast to the the far interior really was my own mental trap. LI rarely --if ever--sees freezing rain, and mid level warmth is usually the immediate death knell to any frozen precipitation absent a better than marginal CAD setup while precipitation is falling. This logic and experience worked well for areas south of I90--but it's far from a slam dunk for areas north/west of there. Now don't get me wrong - I know enough not to project LI climo anywhere in New England (save maybe the Cape) but I still sometimes find myself surprised (as in this case) by the tendency of low level cold to so efficiently drain into the far interior and remain there. The northern Apps and how this relates to the over-performance of WAA (in warmer months) and CAD (in colder months) is yet another critical factor that makes weather prediction so challenging around here....

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

@Damage In Tolland

 

Seriously, is this where you live? That's a max of 41F.

http://w1.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KIJD.html

IJD and Tolland are 2 completely separate climates. Like not even close. They are a valley pit that downslopes from 3 directions. My climate is akin to ORH but to a lesser degree. Elevated interior. 

At any rate, the entire CT valley in CT stayed at or below freezing the entire event. The warmerst I got at 1k was 34.9 for 1 hour. At 6:00 it went above freezing and by 7:15 it was back below with zr at 31.1. It had nothing to do with the surface warm front which only made into SE Mass. The low tracked over LI to GON to south of Boston. Will and Brian both pointed out it was from mixing ahead of the cold front. 

Its great to challenge ideas and try to out think models, but it’s another thing to accuse people of making things up . Especially when you are completely unfamiliar with CT Climo and climates. It’s good that you were able to learn from this, but you were incorrect in several of your post Mortem points. 

Hopefully we have more events left in what’s turned out to be a mediocre winter 

 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
49 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IJD and Tolland are 2 completely separate climates. Like not even close. They are a valley pit that downslopes from 3 directions. My climate is akin to ORH but to a lesser degree. Elevated interior. 

At any rate, the entire CT valley in CT stayed at or below freezing the entire event. The warmerst I got at 1k was 34.9 for 1 hour. At 6:00 it went above freezing and by 7:15 it was back below with zr at 31.1. It had nothing to do with the surface warm front which only made into SE Mass. The low tracked over LI to GON to south of Boston. Will and Brian both pointed out it was from mixing ahead of the cold front. 

Its great to challenge ideas and try to out think models, but it’s another thing to accuse people of making things up . Especially when you are completely unfamiliar with CT Climo and climates. It’s good that you were able to learn from this, but you were incorrect in several of your post Mortem points. 

Hopefully we have more events left in what’s turned out to be a mediocre winter 

 

I'm not going to debate any of these details with you. It's simply not worth it. We don't see eye to eye on a lot of this stuff, and I don't expect that to change now.

Whether you agree or not, the key point i made regarding the surface CF is relevant as ever, and my 20 mile NW error makes perfect sense given the difference of temperatures in IJD 41F versus your backyard 35F and the duration of temps above freezing (7 hours versus 2 hrs, respectively). The furthest northwest the surface cold front made it was over your head, to ORH up to Seabrook NH. I had it going about 20 miles further NW before crashing back southeast. 

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DomNH

DomNH

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

IJD and Tolland are 2 completely separate climates. Like not even close. They are a valley pit that downslopes from 3 directions. My climate is akin to ORH but to a lesser degree. Elevated interior. 

At any rate, the entire CT valley in CT stayed at or below freezing the entire event. The warmerst I got at 1k was 34.9 for 1 hour. At 6:00 it went above freezing and by 7:15 it was back below with zr at 31.1. It had nothing to do with the surface warm front which only made into SE Mass. The low tracked over LI to GON to south of Boston. Will and Brian both pointed out it was from mixing ahead of the cold front. 

Its great to challenge ideas and try to out think models, but it’s another thing to accuse people of making things up . Especially when you are completely unfamiliar with CT Climo and climates. It’s good that you were able to learn from this, but you were incorrect in several of your post Mortem points. 

Hopefully we have more events left in what’s turned out to be a mediocre winter 

 

Mediocre winter? We've had a white Christmas, 12''+ blizzard, nickels and dimes all over the place, multiple legitimate ZR events, and days and days of severe cold. It's not mediocre it needs to freaking end. 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted

Always interesting comparing to the local cocorahs guys. Multiple buns to the Northfield guy with over an inch more of snow and much less liquid. 

Northfield 2.8E 9.5”/0.70”

Tilton-Northfield 3.3NE 8.5”/1.04”

Belmont 1.7SW 8.8”/1.09”

Northfield 1W (me) 8.1”/0.95”

Looks like we had a good 1”/0.10” less than those sites a handful of miles west near Franklin. 

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WeatherFeen2000

WeatherFeen2000

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Mediocre winter? We've had a white Christmas, 12''+ blizzard, nickels and dimes all over the place, multiple legitimate ZR events, and days and days of severe cold. It's not mediocre it needs to freaking end. 

This...and for anyone that's mad at me I was kidding yesterday I love this site I guess my sense of humor is bad no hard feelings 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Lets do this!

 

All across New England, there is the sound of scraping, shoveling, gear being loaded and vehicles being started. It's officially a powder day.

Overnight we picked up four inches of fluffy stuff on top of the six we saw during the day yesterday for a storm total of 10-12 inches and a one-week total of nearly two feet. The skies are clearing this morning and we are looking at a perfect day of skiing and riding. There's not much more to be said about it. If you're the kind of person who reads this report, then it's going to be the kind of day you dream about. This is the report you've been waiting for. Call in sick, get a note, "work from home", do whatever you have to, but get here now

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Mediocre winter? We've had a white Christmas, 12''+ blizzard, nickels and dimes all over the place, multiple legitimate ZR events, and days and days of severe cold. It's not mediocre it needs to freaking end. 

He predicted a ratter before the season so there may be some spinning starting to initiate...a little bit of helicity over KTOL. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Mediocre winter? We've had a white Christmas, 12''+ blizzard, nickels and dimes all over the place, multiple legitimate ZR events, and days and days of severe cold. It's not mediocre it needs to freaking end. 

It’s been better in NNE. I don’t think anyone in SNE thinks it’s been a great winter. There’s been plenty of events , so it’s been fun .. but if it continues the rest of the way as it has,, and we come in BN on snowfall, it will be remembered as mediocre 

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s been better in NNE. I don’t think anyone in SNE thinks it’s been a great winter. There’s been plenty of events , so it’s been fun .. but if it continues the rest of the way as it has,, and we come in BN on snowfall, it will be remembered as mediocre 

What are you at compared to normal right now? You can’t be too far off. Heck you’re probably above normal season-to-date so far. 

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