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moneypitmike

The Pope's 'And There You Have It" SWFE Feb 7 2018

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4 minutes ago, dendrite said:

So you have that for a track and DAW/ORH getting moderate rain?

The sensible weather outcome for this track would be much different if a High was anchored to our North and we didn't have a massive ridge to our east. 

ORH yes. Daw I think stays frozen. Rochester NH right on margin but stays frozen.

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If ORH tickles above freezing it would be when the event is almost over...but they prob won't go above freezing.

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

I'm on board with DAW, not ORH.

Maybe right as it ends with fropa briefly? I feel like almost the whole thing is under 32 there.

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37 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

The 6z had also looked like a slight tic S of 0z.  We trend. 

i thought so too... almost more of a complexion change where it was hard to really see it but it just 'seemed' like it wanted to heh.  I know, ...not very Meteorological, huh - 

Not that you or anyone asked, I have been on the fence with this thing.  I could almost formulate arguments to support warmer or cooler solutions but...ultimately, I edged colder.  

Thing is, ... there's a 22 kt at 850 index finger rule for scouring air mass E of the Berks over interior SNE.  I read this in many AFDs back in the day (like ..yar, 20 years ago... as I date myself).. Well, we see in the NAM's FRH grid on these prior runs, you get one single interval at Logan that apparently busts into a dirt warm sector with winds howling at 30+ kts outta the SW... That's the index finger talking... BUuut, this situation is different in that the tack of the low is more ENE and not NNE...  It seems these non-hydrostatic models might be ever so slightly bumping the track NW around their latent heat exhaust from the convection of this thing.  Just a hunch...but, whatever the cause, that more ENE trajectory versus NE is a key difference maker, because that 22 kt index finger rule then has to be more like a 40 kt rule because the WAA vectors/ assault is skewed. 

man ... complex.  

Yeah, all that ...and,... it's 19/13 here in Ayer ... and like wise around interior sections, we are cold "trapped" ... It's different than CAD ...although the two are subjective of one another. We radiated like mad then the clouds came in at about 1/3 hour prior to dawn and sealed over the cold.  That is a negative feedback circumstantial thing that I am not sure the models really have a lot of processing for. So, that may be a permutation/add-on to llv viscosity and helping to keep things south. Plus, I rather like KTAN's philosophy yesterday... the idea that there is enough density and cold in place to set up the initial thermal packing/gradient along the south coast .. The low should really want to be there where the UVM is maximized along that atmospheric wall -

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1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

How does a low go from LI Sound to Groton to the south shore of Mass ... and some how capture Tolland, CT while taking that path?
Geography Fail?

Go look at the model output of the NAM, EURO, RGEM etc etc. It never goes over SE MA. 

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10 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yes. 

The line drawn in the sand is deep. Good luck. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Once that precip streams in and we wetbulb down everyone on the NW side of that track will feel the drain. Those going over to ZR will probably slowly latently climb to 31-32F. The SN/PL will be relatively nearby in NH so there will be 10s and low 20s to tap into.

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Just now, jbenedet said:

Go look at the model output of the NAM, EURO, RGEM etc etc. It never goes over SE MA. 

Will do.  But I was responding to your response which was a response to Will's Nam comment, and Kevin's subsequent response.

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the moderators here should have a responsibility to keep all religion out of the politic domain space.  

if they want to create a sub-forum/off-Met topic-related place for people to wax philosophies and get offended by differing perspectives and humor or whatever violates sensibilities, they do so under the auspices that if you enter that forum, you know what you are getting into/warning... 

otherwise, neither the humorists nor the receivers/offended should be speaking to just causes and all those heretofore should be moved over to said option.  

 

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9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe right as it ends with fropa briefly? I feel like almost the whole thing is under 32 there.

Yeah I can't see hours and hours of moderate rain at ORH...I can maybe buy a brief 33-34F right at the end when they are starting to mix out at FROPA? Even then though not sure since the backside of this doesn't look to have a big warm sector into E NY state that we often see that gets shoved over the Berkshires and ORH hills during FROPA.

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HRRR looks way too slow with the snow...doesn't start it in E MA until almost noontime...prob gonna be here within 30-45 min...its racing.

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13 minutes ago, dendrite said:

The line drawn in the sand is deep. Good luck. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out. Once that precip streams in and we wetbulb down everyone on the NW side of that track will feel the drain. Those going over to ZR will probably slowly latently climb to 31-32F. The SN/PL will be relatively nearby in NH so there will be 10s and low 20s to tap into.

As precip moves in the winds will flip and the dews will spike in the seacoast area. That's why I think it's misleading to be looking at the current low Td's...

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