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moneypitmike

The Pope's 'And There You Have It" SWFE Feb 7 2018

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Yup. Shouldn’t be a surprise to anyone not papal related. 

We snow to zr

You have anything other than hope to base this on?

I haven't seen one run --of any model--that keeps you below freezing at the surface throughout. It's not even close in terms of guidance consensus which flips you to rain midway through...

Take the advice you gave me yesterday "it's time to bail".

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2 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

You have anything other than hope to base this on?

I haven't seen one run --of any model--that keeps you below freezing at the surface throughout. It's not even close in terms of guidance consensus which flips you to rain midway through...

Take the advice you gave me yesterday "it's time to bail".

If you knew Climo you’d know you are in big trouble with your above freezing interior. In all seriousness, you should heed the advice of the other longtime mets here instead of trying to “one up” everyone. Interior SNE is locked below 32 friend 

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you knew Climo you’d know you are in big trouble with your above freezing interior. I’m all seriousness, you should heed the advice of the other longtime mets here instead of trying to “one up” everyone. Interior SNE is locked below 32 friend 

The NWS doesn't agree with you --not even close--that's why you're under a WWA. Nor does the well respected met you follow @CT Rain

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3 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

Oy Vey to all of the religious posts lol!  12K and 3K NAM still bring the evil 0C 850's pretty far north.....we pray...we wear our snowflake embroidered yarmulkes.   Dumping here. Came in like a wall as advertised (SWFE real news).

Some models have HRV tainting much further N than the CTRV.  You should be good for a prolonged thump there before you ping. 

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3km nam tracks the low from LI sound to GON to south shore of MA...guess it's not going over hubbdave's fanny like the 00z run.

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Actually he does. This will be a good learning storm for you 

Really.

How much ice does he have forecasted for your area?

 

The north wind you're banking on is out the second the precip moves in, and the ascent in T and Td will be fast. Enjoy the thump.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

3km nam tracks the low from LI sound to GON to south shore of MA...guess it's not going over hubbdave's fanny like the 00z run.

What a shocker LOL. Love playing with the model biases.

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

3km nam tracks the low from LI sound to GON to south shore of MA...guess it's not going over hubbdave's fanny like the 00z run.

Pretty clear to me this goes to near/over BOS to just east of Portsmouth NH. That's the current guidance consensus...

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8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

If you knew Climo you’d know you are in big trouble with your above freezing interior. In all seriousness, you should heed the advice of the other longtime mets here instead of trying to “one up” everyone. Interior SNE is locked below 32 friend 

You take a lot of heat on this forum but when you fight back you've got an impressive fastball.

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3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Really.

How much ice does he have forecasted for your area?

 

The north wind you're banking on is out the second the precip moves in, and the ascent in T and Td will be fast. Enjoy the thump.

.25 or less

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Pretty clear to me this goes to near/over BOS to just east of Portsmouth NH. That's the current guidance consensus...

So you have that for a track and DAW/ORH getting moderate rain?

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