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The Pope's 'And There You Have It" SWFE Feb 7 2018

moneypitmike

By moneypitmike,
in New England

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

Few more tenths after we changed back over to snow.

Final: 4.5" in Dover.

Season total is now 51.0", which is about double the most snow I ever seen in a season before the move.

Climo for you is prob about another 2 feet from here on out. That would get you to 75" or so....would be a solid winter there. A bit above average.

 

Hopefully we rock in late Feb and March...that can be a really fun period when the pattern is right. Usually you're long done by then down in NC.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Climo for you is prob about another 2 feet from here on out. That would get you to 75" or so....would be a solid winter there. A bit above average.

 

Hopefully we rock in late Feb and March...that can be a really fun period when the pattern is right. Usually you're long done by then down in NC.

I've been guessing the average here is about 60-65" per winter. Sounds about right?

I'm still enjoying these snow events, although the cold is starting to wear me down at this point with two more months left. Typically, I start expecting few days in 70s by mid-February down in NC and any snow after Presidents' Day is shocking.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I've been guessing the average here is about 60-65" per winter. Sounds about right?

I'm still enjoying these snow events, although the cold is starting to wear me down at this point with two more months left. Typically, I start expecting few days in 70s by mid-February down in NC and any snow after Presidents' Day is shocking.

Woah southern boy crying for his Momma?

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, WxBlue said:

I've been guessing the average here is about 60-65" per winter. Sounds about right?

I'm still enjoying these snow events, although the cold is starting to wear me down at this point with two more months left. Typically, I start expecting few days in 70s by mid-February down in NC and any snow after Presidents' Day is shocking.

Yeah prob closer to mid 60s...esp if you are off the water more than a couple miles. Like any place it will vary with the elevation too...if you are north up near/north of the 16/108 interchange there, then you can prob add a few inches. Further off the water, north, and an extra 200 feet elevation.

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SharonA

SharonA

Posted
Posted

About 6" plus crust in Freeport, and it looks like we're done.  No new precip at my location and the Warning's been dropped a few hours ahead of time.

 

Avalanche Watch - Are these typical after this type of event?

  

NHZ002-090100-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH
FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
938 PM EST WED FEB 7 2018

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE FOREST
SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH.

THE US FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER HAS
ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL 8PM THURSDAY FEBRUARY 8, 2018.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE CUTLER RIVER DRAINAGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
MOUNT WASHINGTON INCLUDING FORECAST AREAS IN TUCKERMAN AND
HUNTINGTON RAVINES. WATCH CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN OTHER AREAS
OUTSIDE THOSE FORECAST BY THE AVALANCHE CENTER.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL INCREASE THROUGH
  TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNING CREATING DANGEROUS
  AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD NATURAL AVALANCHE ACTIVITY IS
  POSSIBLE.

* REASON/IMPACTS...A POTENT WINTER STORM ARRIVED ON WEDNESDAY.
  INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS RECENT HEAVY
  SNOWFALL. THIS WIND WILL TRANSPORT SNOW TO BUILD UNSTABLE SLABS
  WHICH ARE LIKELY TO AVALANCHE NATURALLY OR WITH A HUMAN TRIGGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD PLAN ON RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.
EXTRA CAUTION IS REQUIRED IF PLANNING A TRIP INTO AVALANCHE
TERRAIN. BACKCOUNTRY TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS.

SIMILAR AVALANCHE DANGER MAY EXIST AT LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE
COVERAGE AREA OF THIS OR ANY AVALANCHE CENTER.

CONSULT THE CURRENT AVALANCHE ADVISORY AT
WWW.MOUNTWASHINGTONAVALANCHECENTER.ORG FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

 

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HIPPYVALLEY

HIPPYVALLEY

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, SharonA said:

About 6" plus crust in Freeport, and it looks like we're done.  No new precip at my location and the Warning's been dropped a few hours ahead of time.

 

Avalanche Warning - Are these typical after this type of event?

  


NHZ002-090100-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH
FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
938 PM EST WED FEB 7 2018

THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE IS TRANSMITTED AT THE REQUEST OF THE FOREST
SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER, GORHAM NH.

THE US FOREST SERVICE MOUNT WASHINGTON AVALANCHE CENTER HAS
ISSUED A BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WATCH.

* TIMING...IN EFFECT FROM NOW UNTIL 8PM THURSDAY FEBRUARY 8, 2018.

* AFFECTED AREA...THE CUTLER RIVER DRAINAGE ON THE EAST SIDE OF
MOUNT WASHINGTON INCLUDING FORECAST AREAS IN TUCKERMAN AND
HUNTINGTON RAVINES. WATCH CRITERIA MAY BE MET IN OTHER AREAS
OUTSIDE THOSE FORECAST BY THE AVALANCHE CENTER.

* AVALANCHE DANGER...THE AVALANCHE DANGER WILL INCREASE THROUGH
  TONIGHT AND POSSIBLY THURSDAY MORNING CREATING DANGEROUS
  AVALANCHE CONDITIONS. WIDESPREAD NATURAL AVALANCHE ACTIVITY IS
  POSSIBLE.

* REASON/IMPACTS...A POTENT WINTER STORM ARRIVED ON WEDNESDAY.
  INCREASING WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THIS RECENT HEAVY
  SNOWFALL. THIS WIND WILL TRANSPORT SNOW TO BUILD UNSTABLE SLABS
  WHICH ARE LIKELY TO AVALANCHE NATURALLY OR WITH A HUMAN TRIGGER.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
BACKCOUNTRY TRAVELERS SHOULD PLAN ON RAPIDLY CHANGING CONDITIONS.
EXTRA CAUTION IS REQUIRED IF PLANNING A TRIP INTO AVALANCHE
TERRAIN. BACKCOUNTRY TRAVEL WILL BECOME VERY DANGEROUS.

SIMILAR AVALANCHE DANGER MAY EXIST AT LOCATIONS OUTSIDE THE
COVERAGE AREA OF THIS OR ANY AVALANCHE CENTER.

CONSULT THE CURRENT AVALANCHE ADVISORY AT
WWW.MOUNTWASHINGTONAVALANCHECENTER.ORG FOR MORE DETAILED
INFORMATION.

 

Obviously dependent on what type of snow they got in the bowls.   Avalanche warnings can be pretty common in the ravines though.  Less so in places like the Gulf of Slides.

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WxBlue

WxBlue

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah prob closer to mid 60s...esp if you are off the water more than a couple miles. Like any place it will vary with the elevation too...if you are north up near/north of the 16/108 interchange there, then you can prob add a few inches. Further off the water, north, and an extra 200 feet elevation.

Not bad. I'm right downtown and think my elevation is about 50-75 feet so I'd consider 65" to be about average.

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kdxken

kdxken

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

the ice situation is horrific...so burnt out dealing with it

i am really hating this winter, this is the above normal precip below normal temp stuff i was afraid of

more rain this weekend and nowhere for the water to go

I hear ya, Marchand just came down my driveway on the left wing. Rink - Skate.

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, WxBlue said:

Not bad. I'm right downtown and think my elevation is about 50-75 feet so I'd consider 65" to be about average.

The thing about living up here, which I learned quickly when I moved to Webster NH on March 31 2008, is that just when you think spring is taking hold, we sometimes go back into deep winter later in Feb and March.  This happened last year.  It might happen this year.  It can be fun, but it can also get old when you start to yearn for the sun on your nape and you want to plant your spring garden.

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

The thing about living up here, which I learned quickly when I moved to Webster NH on March 31 2008, is that just when you think spring is taking hold, we sometimes go back into deep winter later in Feb and March.  This happened last year.  It might happen this year.  It can be fun, but it can also get old when you start to yearn for the sun on your nape and you want to plant your spring garden.

Early Feb and he's getting sick of the cold. He's going to love the rest of Feb, Mar, and Apr.

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

@CoastalWx

@ORH_wxman

@dendrite

Nice jobs guys seeing the fake surface warmth in seascoast of NH. I was wrong about that. I underestimated the quickness of the 850 mb warmth (although it was real, as per the mesos), and slightly overestimated the low level warmth, in ORH to PSM. In terms of sensible weather it was important - ORH had several hours of freezing rain before flipping to plain rain for a few hours, and KPSM never went above freezing - it appears the low level CF made it as far north as seabrook/Hampton beach but never made it passed there before the wind backed again. You guys all pointed that out and it was a great call. We had quite a bit of freezing rain here in NH and you guys saw that potential whereas I did not. Those areas right along the margin of the CF were a tough call, and guidance was clearly not reliable with trying to pin point exactly where the CF would end up and how far northwest it would progress before collapsing back to the SE. For myself, in looking at the scope of the error it looks like I approximated the CF would make it about 20 miles further NW than it did, in actuality...

Experience with local climo clearly helped you guys with this forecast. Cheers to a good forecast, and standing your ground. :clap:

Looking forward to the next one.

 

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mahk_webstah

mahk_webstah

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Early Feb and he's getting sick of the cold. He's going to love the rest of Feb, Mar, and Apr.

2 ft on the ground March 31 2008 and piles the size of mountains.  But the ground was clear before the end of April lol.  And then a couple years later I think, 80s and 90s in March.  Quite a place we live in

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