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The Pope's 'And There You Have It" SWFE Feb 7 2018


moneypitmike

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obviously no one in here is really qualified to judge these modeling performances ... me being no different. Ooccasionally memes come into fad to impugn one over the other.  Next event, we tend as humans to adhere to whatever version aligns with our personal biases.. .  

Truth be told, some models do far better given some circumstances .. Like, little known secret: the NAM is phenomenal at convective initialization ..perhaps even extending into day 2. Something we just don't focus on around here for obvious practical prioritization.  blah blah... We only see it blasting through a CAD dome and well...

Whatever it is about this situation, the GFS appears poised to do better compared to the other guidance...  The Euro is probably include-able in that, but even it is slightly tinted warm comparatively( going by the granular freebie charts I've seen). Anyway, this 12z run is clearly yet ticked S-SE with the track of the low and the ptype transition axis'. We're not talking huge adjustments? No, but, given to conventional wisdom with cold air banked/CADed in like this, it is really easy to visualize the other warm-ish model cluster members as busting too far NW, so seeing the GFS do what it is doing ... it fits intuitively. It's also a better climo fit, by the way. 

24/20 hear with pin head snow flakes falling close to fog density -

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Yeah, I'm not exactly sure why you and I are getting marginal snow growth.  It's probably +SN  here it just doesn't look as impressive with the small flakes.  Probably 1.5" on cars, I'll measure soon. 

Well, I almost never do great with any type of SE wind because of the SVT plateau peaks to my E/SE, so I always expect it. Not sure about your location though.

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