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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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1 minute ago, Stebo said:

Agree, the energy moving in from the west is slower stronger and less flat this run.

I don't think the NAM is properly handling the energies. We should have partial sampling tonight and full sampling by tomorrow night which includes the piece of the PV lobe that drops down into Manitoba on Sunday. Maybe that'll clear things up?

 

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I'm definitely still all in on 10"+ tonight/early tomorrow in that area where the main band sets up.  0.50"-0.70" of precip with great ratios of well over 15:1 should get the job done.  Heck we saw less amounts of precip on Monday produce nearly 10" south of the QC.  This setup has more moisture, and stronger forcing, and even has some convective potential.  Someone's gonna get a foot by mid morning tomorrow. 

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6 minutes ago, ConvectiveIA said:

Early, and I mean very early, evidence of southward sag of the main band to our west. It, and the NWS forecasts are all the hope I have. And I'm normally not one to severely question their forecasts except this time where those model runs are so out of agreement with the forecast.

It's not just one office either, DVN is also thinking the main band sags south of 20, but there's no model support for that, so I am very skeptical.

I'm also at 3" on the event now as the southest sagging end of the main heavy band has been parked over me for the past few hours. I don't think this continues the rest of the night though.

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Snow has shut off here, with 1.2" so far.  There's some freezing drizzle falling.  

Original call for here/QC was 2-4", but I expected the late night/Friday morning to add a few inches.  That has trended downward to very little now, so I think I'm gonna go with 2-3" here, and 1-2" for the QC.  

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Very light snow started. Looks like we have a 10 hr window -  Really need 4" and closer to 6" to have enough for the snowmobile trails to hold up some over the weekend.   2nd time in 3 yrs they'll open up.  Worst Climo.    Good luck all.  Wish the timing was better to keep the thread active..  Can't wait to see the totals MI. can pull of when its all said  and done over the weekend.

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3 minutes ago, Natester said:

Wave number two looks promising for here, although it'll be very late tomorrow.  Got around 2 to 2.5 inches of snow.  Might pick up an additional inch of two before wave one ends.

Yeah I'm hopeful our areas can get a nice 2-3" out of that wave.  Been spending so much time on looking at tonight's wave I keep forgetting about that one lol.  Almost seems like two separate systems.

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Izzi’s A man of his words. Updated warning text below:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
832 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018

ILZ013-014-019>022-INZ001-002-091045-
/O.EXT.KLOT.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/
DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Wheaton, Chicago, Ottawa, Oswego, Morris,
Joliet, Gary, and Valparaiso
832 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, heave at times occurring. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Friday.
  Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 12 inches, with localized
  amounts up to 14 inches expected.

* WHERE...Portions of northwest Indiana and north central and
  northeast Illinois.

* WHEN...Until noon CST Friday.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Be prepared for significant reductions in
  visibility at times.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Winter Storm Warning for snow means severe winter weather
conditions are occurring. If you must travel, keep an extra
flashlight, food and water in your vehicle in case of an
emergency.

$$
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5 minutes ago, mimillman said:

Izzi’s A man of his words. Updated warning text below:


URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Chicago IL
832 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018

ILZ013-014-019>022-INZ001-002-091045-
/O.EXT.KLOT.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-180209T1800Z/
DuPage-Cook-La Salle-Kendall-Grundy-Will-Lake IN-Porter-
Including the cities of Wheaton, Chicago, Ottawa, Oswego, Morris,
Joliet, Gary, and Valparaiso
832 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON CST FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Snow, heave at times occurring. Plan on difficult travel
  conditions, including during the morning commute on Friday.
  Additional snow accumulations of 7 to 12 

$$

Forecast amounts remain the same. He just made sure to put his stamp on it in the AFD...per usual.

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The 0z GFS albeit weaker than the NAM has a similar outcome for wave 2 and 3 for YYZ. Differences in the H5 are still very evident among both the runs which I hope will get resolved by tomorrow night. I believe once the issues are resolved, we'll probably get solutions that have better instability, but let's see! 

 

 

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4 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I am thinking this might overperform on ratios for a while here, it is only 12 right now... A lot colder than I expected at this point.

Oh Stebo, you are not setting a good example with that post.  You know that what's going on aloft is very important with ratios.  

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Just now, Hoosier said:

Oh Stebo, you are not setting a good example with that post.  You know that what's going on aloft is very important with ratios.  

Yes, which hasn't changed any and was highly favorable, which is why I said what I said, knowing the surface is adding a bonus.

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10 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

The 0z GFS albeit weaker than the NAM has a similar outcome for wave 2 and 3 for YYZ. Differences in the H5 are still very evident among both the runs which I hope will get resolved by tomorrow night. I believe once the issues are resolved, we'll probably get solutions that have better instability, but let's see! 

 

 

That third wave has a real nice tap of guif moisture. But as per the seasonal trends, everything simply shears to the east. No amplification allowed.

I'm going to lower my call with wave 1 to 2-4". Then ~2" for each of the next two waves. Nothing memorable. Snow pack thickening and stat padding is all she wrote.

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