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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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37 minutes ago, GreenBo said:

DTX hoisted WSWs for Detroit on south. Makes sense given recent guidance. However I wouldn’t be shocked if the third tier counties get an upgrade during the night shift. The slightest wobble can bring warning snows further north. 

Anyhow, great hit for here in the city. Should be a fun day and evening. Also have Sat to watch out for. 

I would have included Oakland and Macomb in the warning personally, I think those areas get 6-9", especially south of M-59.

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Sunshine peeking thru here.   I think this area around Prairie Du Chien is looking at three to four inches unless a surprise happens.   Atmosphere is in process of saturating even with good returns showing up on radar.   

Area between highway 20 and 30 looks great to me for some big totals.   

Post pics everyone!!!!

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The ECMWF being drier than all other guidance gives be pause in going fully on-board, but it's hard not to with almost everything else showing 8-14" across the area, with locally higher amounts.

Will we finally brush off seasonal trends of last minute shifts, weakening and bad flake size?

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8 minutes ago, Chicago Storm said:

The ECMWF being drier than all other guidance gives be pause in going fully on-board, but it's hard not to with almost everything else showing 8-14" across the area, with locally higher amounts.

Will we finally brush off seasonal trends of last minute shifts, weakening and bad flake size?

I'd say that's been the trend since 2/1-2/2/15. We shall see......

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24 minutes ago, Stebo said:

I would have included Oakland and Macomb in the warning personally, I think those areas get 6-9", especially south of M-59.

Unless they are seeing something we’re not. But, even the low range of guidance brings Warning criteria snows to a good chunk of the third tier counties. Strange.

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In IL, I think it is safe to say those south of I-80 shouldn't have their hopes up for a huge storm but from there on north to the IL/WI border, the real unknown is this a 6 inch storm or 15 inch storm. All depends on your expectations if this "busts". At this rate, it's a snow-blowable school closing storm, just depends on how much disruption that extra 6-9 inches could bring. 

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In IL, I think it is safe to say those south of I-80 shouldn't have their hopes up for a huge storm but from there on north to the IL/WI border, the real unknown is this a 6 inch storm or 15 inch storm. All depends on your expectations if this "busts". At this rate, it's a snow-blowable school closing storm, just depends on how much disruption that extra 6-9 inches could bring. 
Northern Illinois University already announced closed tomorrow

Sent from my Nexus 5X using Tapatalk

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14 minutes ago, ILSNOW said:

Difference in the NAM vs GFS with the storm on our door step is unbelievable 

The I-88 corridor has been bullseyed for awhile now. Most other storms, we are talking about the great model agreement. Problem with this specific scenario is the extreme cutoff on the north and south end. 

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I'd be shocked if the band ends up this far south, especially when looking at current radar upstream.


I’d be a fan though lol. Just so dicey for metro Toledo which is literally split in half by this, one of my best friends who lives in Lambertville should see 8-12” while me here in Perrysburg could only be around 5-8”. Lol it’s a 22 minute drive and that probably will mean a 4-6” gap of snow
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Not NWS bashing here, but LOT has the IKK zone with 3-7" total thru tomorrow...and with no advisory. Don't think I've seen that before. Granted there's uncertainty, and the county *could* have a big gradient from north to south if the snow makes it this far south, but still. Regardless, I don't think we'll even get to the low end of that range, so the point is probably moot. :D 

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2 hours ago, tuanis said:

I-88 corridor looks golden. We're only a few hours out now. Also, I really really hope that's actually your haircut. I laugh every single time I see it.

Based on the new NAM, the upped amounts from LOT seem a bit beefy. They look great on the screen, time will tell if we see them in our yards.

Trust me when I say that seeing ^ that after worrying for two hours made my heart jump. And Unfortunately, it's not my haircut, but I'm glad you approve :)

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11 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said:

The hrrr is bumping the southern cutoff a little southward each run. Wouldn’t affect placement of the heavy band much, but it could atleast make us southern cutoff riders feel better lol

The ese curve of the .5 area wasn't there on the last run.  

HRRRCHI_prec_precacc_018.png.128c51adf628c4d18b9e831303efee3d.png

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