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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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1 hour ago, Snowstorms said:

12z Euro had 1-2" at best at YYZ with the first wave. The second wave drops about 6-8". 

 

 

 

Yikes. With lack of a true arctic high pressure to the north (there's actually an area of lower heights/troughiness around Hudson Bay) I though the 0z GFS/RGEM would be about as far south as the models would go. That thinking might be in trouble. Those ARW runs are hideous.

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11 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said:

Ugh this is gonna be such a nail biter. I'll lose it if we're on the screw side of that insane gradient. Although the current snow seems further south than where the HRRR has it, if that's worth anything,

I’ve been noticing the same thing. It’s not really adjusting run to run either. 

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9 minutes ago, Malacka11 said:

Man, this may sound selfish, but as long as i-88 gets its good snow I'm happy. If it goes farther than that this close action time I am going to die a little inside

 

I-88 corridor looks golden. We're only a few hours out now. Also, I really really hope that's actually your haircut. I laugh every single time I see it.

Based on the new NAM, the upped amounts from LOT seem a bit beefy. They look great on the screen, time will tell if we see them in our yards.

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38 minutes ago, snowstormcanuck said:

Yikes. With lack of a true arctic high pressure to the north (there's actually an area of lower heights/troughiness around Hudson Bay) I though the 0z GFS/RGEM would be about as far south as the models would go. That thinking might be in trouble. Those ARW runs are hideous.

I think wave 1 will be orientated more NNE as opposed to ENE given the strong jet-streak. I mean the 12z Euro as you can see below for Wave 1 has a sharp cut-off. Let's see? 

 

ecmwf.PNG

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11 minutes ago, tuanis said:

I-88 corridor looks golden. We're only a few hours out now. Also, I really really hope that's actually your haircut. I laugh every single time I see it.

Based on the new NAM, the upped amounts from LOT seem a bit beefy. They look great on the screen, time will tell if we see them in our yards.

Perhaps...but as others have pointed out (which I generally agree with), LOT is probably banking on ratios. While it's certainly disappointing that the NAM has reduced its max QPF to about 1.00" for both waves instead of 1.25"+ from prior runs...even a relatively modest 0.80" of liquid would equate to 12" based on 15:1 ratios.

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2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Perhaps...but as others have pointed out (which I generally agree with), LOT is probably banking on ratios. While it's certainly disappointing that the NAM has reduced its max QPF (down to about 1.00" for both waves instead of 1.25"+ from prior runs)...even a relatively modest 0.8" of liquid would equate to 12" based on 15:1 ratios.

The totals LOT is mentioning are thru Friday evening. They don't include the other junk to rotate through on Saturday/Saturday night.

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DTX hoisted WSWs for Detroit on south. Makes sense given recent guidance. However I wouldn’t be shocked if the third tier counties get an upgrade during the night shift. The slightest wobble can bring warning snows further north. 

Anyhow, great hit for here in the city. Should be a fun day and evening. Also have Sat to watch out for. 

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Just a little historical note for Chicago. The 10th place storm on the all-time list is 14.8".  I assume that everything that falls from tonight through the weekend should count as one storm since the breaks in snowfall won't be terribly long. It may be a little tough to get to that number but there's at least some possibility.   Out of the 10 biggest snowstorms on record for Chicago, only 2 of them have occurred in February, and both were recent - 2011 and 2015.

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5 minutes ago, wegoweather said:

There are 2 different LOT maps out.  The one showing 8-14" is through Friday.  The other showing 12-18" is through Saturday 6pm. 

Have not seen the 12-18'er. Seems confusing to have two different maps for two time periods out there, at least confusing to the public.

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12 minutes ago, ajl_from_Valpo said:

This must be a snowfall ratio thing they're looking at then. It would definitely explain the bullish map.

12z NAM on Pivotal is showing Kuchera ratios of 15-1 at onset (16-1 for part of the bullseye) and staying at or above 13-1 in the bullseye for the 1st wave duration.

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For Wave 1, MKE is mentioning 18:1 ratios

 

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
303 PM CST Thu Feb 8 2018

.SHORT TERM...

Tonight and Friday...Forecast Confidence is High...

Light snow is falling across parts of Iowa along a baroclinic zone
and strengthening upper jet. Returns showing up on radar in
southwest WI are not hitting the ground, yet. Snow is expected to
move into southwest WI around 6-7 pm. It will then spread across
southern WI, pushing north of I-94 around 9 pm. Adjusted
snowfall totals down a tad for counties not touching the Illinois
state line, as those areas will be on the northern edge of the
heaviest snowfall (down in Illinois).

The greatest snowfall totals will be in far southern WI and across
northern Illinois. This is where the strongest low level
frontogenesis and warm air advection sets up. Lift is good with
these features and the dendrite growth zone is up to 200mb.
The majority of the snow will fall between midnight and 6 am.
Tonight the low level jet will ramp up across Illinois, tightening
up the baroclinic zone along the Wisconsin/Illinois state line,
and providing strong warm air advection. Upper divergence
increases after midnight as the right entrance region passes
overhead.

Snowfall rates could be around 1 inch per hour after midnight.
The NAM continues to come in with aggressive precip amounts. Other
models are pretty consistent with the axis of greatest precip
across northern Illinois.

Some lake enhancement is possible with northeast winds Friday
morning, but an organized lake effect band is not expected. Delta T
values are 13. Light snow will likely linger in eastern WI through
Friday morning, and maybe into the afternoon along the lake. It
looks like snow to liquid ratios will be around 18:1. This is a
moderate consistency snow and winds may be just enough on Friday to
create a little drifting.
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