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February 8th-11th Overrunning Event


Snowstorms

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Most of the models tonight remained the same or trended a bit south/better over here.  Then the euro comes in and shifts even farther north, into northern Iowa, than it already was.  The euro has the heavy snow in the north and south, while the GFS/GDPS have it in the middle.  I don't know how much we'll get.

ecmwf_acc_precip_greatlakes_96.thumb.png.8f47a7e736259bb0b5551abedac0c088.png

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Adjusted the omega so it's not off the screen. Here's 00Z NAMnest for KDPA at noon on Friday with an excess of 20 microbars of lift nicely aligned with the DGZ here too. Using 'max temp in profile' which is using ~15:1 ratios there a couple hours 10am into noon where NAMnest gives us 1.5"/hr rates with EPV essentially zero. 

cobb method wants to throw in almost 3"/hr rates at this time lol.

 

5a7bfa4141c69_namnest.thumb.jpeg.79cbf852ea27c652f907392a8484189a.jpeg

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Looking at the models and MOS outputs it’s quite an interesting storm on deck. The GFS verbatim is going 5-9” in Adrian MI while KTOL is at 3-5” and Findlay (KFDY) is at 1-2”. Just amazing to see such a sharp gradient within our viewing area, making every little wobble and bit of dry air from the south that much more important

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28 minutes ago, RobertSul said:

Starting to think this upcoming week will be a memorable one for snow enthusiasts (and snow haters) in SE Michigan. 

20"+ on the ground for some locales? 

We already have more snow on the ground in the southern burbs than north. I have 8 on the ground in Wyandotte. Work in Farmington Hills where it's like 4-5 otg

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56 minutes ago, michsnowfreak said:

We already have more snow on the ground in the southern burbs than north. I have 8 on the ground in Wyandotte. Work in Farmington Hills where it's like 4-5 otg

Never considered Farmington Hills as the ‘northern burbs’. Western yes, but not northern. You have to get into Lk Orion through Clarkston for that in my book. 

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Whole shebang total snow through late Saturday/early Sunday final call. Riding the northern camp (NAM/Euro) to the end...tossing the southern outliers.

DTW, Ghost of Goes-land, ORD, & SBN: 10-14" (isolated higher)

Cycloneville, JOT, & MKE: 4-8" (isolated higher for the first two)

IKK: DAB+ (1-2")

Enjoy this one folks up north, should be a good one. :D

 

 

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38 minutes ago, GreenBo said:

Never considered Farmington Hills as the ‘northern burbs’. Western yes, but not northern. You have to get into Lk Orion through Clarkston for that in my book. 

Agree, I feel you have to get north of M59 to be considered the northern burbs of metro Detroit. Most of the "northern burbs" like northern Oakland, Genesee, Lapeer and St Clair countys have a pretty deep snow pack right now. Flint to Port Huron has had a big snow season so far. Now if I could just borrow Snowfreaks magnet and take it up to northern lower for a while..........

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7 minutes ago, slow poke said:

Agree, I feel you have to get north of M59 to be considered the northern burbs of metro Detroit. Most of the "northern burbs" like northern Oakland, Genesee, Lapeer and St Clair countys have a pretty deep snow pack right now. Flint to Port Huron has had a big snow season so far. Now if I could just borrow Snowfreaks magnet and take it up to northern lower for a while..........

Here in northern Lapeer (Columbiaville), I have about an 8" snowpack.

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Model runs that were once painting 5-8 inches for us have concentrated the band more narrow placing us at the southern edge with 2-4 inches. This puts into question the risk of receiving nearly nothing at all, or will things trend southward a tick and keep us secure in the action? A nail biting model day at work is in store. But I shall keep my expectations tempered.

ATTM 12z RAP to 21 hours has ticked southward. but we're super on the edge in it .

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1 hour ago, snowstormcanuck said:

I'll bump my call locally to 3-6" for wave one. I like the long-duration nature of this storm. Also, could be a bit of help from Lake Ontario early in the event before it warms too much aloft.

Can't disagree. 2-4" imo for now looks like a solid call for wave one. We'll have to see how wave 1 orients the heaviest bands for the entire duration. We'll likely have some decent ratios to work with in the beginning and we'll see how much confluence we can get for some deformation bands. Jet dynamics are fairly strong over our region so 6.0" is definitely possible. 

Edit: 12z Nam backs off quite a bit, now only has 1-3" with wave 1. 

Wave 2 is more key for our area which has the potential to drop 4.0-8.0" under the right circumstances. 

 

 

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