Malacka11 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 the 00z NAM is even more intense than the 18z run. 00z: More importantly, it paints the swath of heavier snow farther north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 That razor sharp south cutoff though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, CoalCityWxMan said: That razor sharp south cutoff though The LOT AFD did highlight the sharp southern cut off on this system. You should be co,fortes to know though that the trend has been to actualisé further south with each system, with the exception of the light event unfolding right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: The LOT AFD did highlight the sharp southern cut off on this system. You should be co,fortes to know though that the trend has been to actualisé further south with each system, with the exception of the light event unfolding right now This is true. Latest GFS run is very similar to 18z, perhaps a bit more intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 6 minutes ago, Malacka11 said: This is true. Latest GFS run is very similar to 18z, perhaps a bit more intense. 00z GFS virtually unchanged from 18z with heaviest axis of snow riding right along I-80 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Gfs is really trying to get me excited... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Long duration combined with precipitation totals from the first wave, 00z GFS would argue LOT should be considering rolling out watches after 12z suite tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 That would be exciting. Can't wait to read Romeoville's late-night forecast discussion! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Gfs is really trying to get me excited... Wave 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paulie21 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Exactly, lol Since you mentioned big dog... if you subtract the modest qpf from tonight/tomorrow, the max band for this storm as currently progged is near to perhaps a hair above 1". That is some good precip, but if it doesn't trend wetter, then we will need solid ratios to try to get this into real big dog territory. I guess "big dog" is a subjective term though. At least wind won't really be a factor to hold down ratios... it's gonna come down to microphysics. There's no real research done on whether strong winds impact flake size, Walker Ashley always stressed upon that. Have seen fat dendrites though there were 30+kt gusts and pixie dust when there were calm winds but deep DGZ. The DGZ column itself this event will be in 50-60kts aloft if you want to argue wind impacting flake size. I think UVV's co-located with DGZ and supersaturation plays a far larger role than winds in ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 GFS looks like it got a bit juicier with wave 1, pretty impressive snow output. 7-9" over the bottom 3 tiers of counties in DTX's area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 The cold push behind wave 1 keeps pushing wave 2 further south and east. Please no, I am greedy and I want both of them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 I don't know very much about the details at all; can you explain exactly how reliable the Kuchera method is compared to others? It always seems to be overshooting its counterparts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: The cold push behind wave 1 keeps pushing wave 2 further south and east. Please no, I am greedy and I want both of them. I feel you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: 00z NAM is fairly aggressive with the WAA aloft toward the end of the run. Yep, gets the mix all the way to the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 1 minute ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: The cold push behind wave 1 keeps pushing wave 2 further south and east. Please no, I am greedy and I want both of them. Was just going to post this, completely agree. As a result, Kuchera totals down slightly, though still very impressive, and likely overinflated. Main band barely moved. Subtract 2-3 inches from tonight’s event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, mimillman said: Was just going to post this, completely agree. As a result, Kuchera totals down slightly, though still very impressive, and likely overinflated. Main band barely moved. Subtract 2-3 inches from tonight’s event. Man, that cutoff. 10 miles and you have a 12" difference in totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Credit to Hawkeye for posting this initially, but I am going to say it because I agree. The trough has trended a bit flatter the past run or two and as such it doesnt dig as much. As a result, the flow remains more zonal as opposed to southwesterly. Therefore, not as much WAA takes place aloft and without it, the cold coming in behind it can overpower the substantially weakened WAA and push the baroclinic zone and wave two southward which only clips Iowa. For those of us further north/west, if this happens, our chances for any significant snow from wave 2 are slim as the core of the precip slides SE of here per GFS and ICON. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Wave 2 has more of an SW to NE look to it now vs. the east /west look it had earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 8 minutes ago, NWLinnCountyIA said: Credit to Hawkeye for posting this initially, but I am going to say it because I agree. The trough has trended a bit flatter the past run or two and as such it doesnt dig as much. As a result, the flow remains more zonal as opposed to southwesterly. Therefore, not as much WAA takes place aloft and without it, the cold coming in behind it can overpower the substantially weakened WAA and push the baroclinic zone and wave two southward which only clips Iowa. For those of us further north/west, if this happens, our chances for any significant snow from wave 2 are slim as the core of the precip slides SE of here per GFS and ICON. That's some significant change over four runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 25 minutes ago, Paulie21 said: There's no real research done on whether strong winds impact flake size, Walker Ashley always stressed upon that. Have seen fat dendrites though there were 30+kt gusts and pixie dust when there were calm winds but deep DGZ. The DGZ column itself this event will be in 50-60kts aloft if you want to argue wind impacting flake size. I think UVV's co-located with DGZ and supersaturation plays a far larger role than winds in ratios. I think the wind can be a factor when it's over 40 mph at the surface, but especially if you get into the 50-60+ mph range. You can certainly get better than 10:1 ratios with such winds but I can't remember seeing 20:1 or better type stuff in that situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 In all honesty, its been years since I've been able to track a *potentially* major storm for my area this close to the event, feels great to be back in the game lol But lets hope we can get a nice one-two punch with the first and second wave that can spread the wealth. Lots of fun to come in the days ahead (I hope) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 CMC wave 1 assuming 10:1, narrow band but very solid totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoalCityWxMan Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Friend at LOT says winter storm watches could come out as early as tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RJSnowLover Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 9 minutes ago, CoalCityWxMan said: Friend at LOT says winter storm watches could come out as early as tonight. I thought RC was everybody's friend... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Yeah I could see watches going up this morning, especially IL west, Detroit/Grand Rapids will more than likely wait until afternoon, though it could be one of those super long duration WWA events as well too. Personally I would go WSWatch to Warning based upon current consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Euro sort of a wet blanket for areas west of Chicago. Chicago and of course southern/southeast MI still do pretty well with the Euro, but areas further west are pretty lame compared to the other guidance. The Euro has had a rough go of late, but it looks pretty realistic to me in how it depicts the evolution of things. I can't ever recall seeing such a heavy WAA wing type event for this area like the GFS/GEM/NAM shows. Seems a bit unrealistic based on the fact I've never seen an event evolve like that ever here. Quality WAA wing type events pretty much always stay north of here, more up towards far northern IL/southern WI. Think the GFS and others will trend towards the Euro on this. Expecting a meager advisory event here at best despite the asinine outputs by the GFS/GEM/NAM. Early call for the whole period for here/QC is 3-6", but wouldn't be surprised if it's more of a 2-4" type of deal. Would still be a pretty nice little seasonal event, but will probably end up being a meager/forgettable event. Heavy snows of 6-10" will align from far southern WI through southern-lower MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HillsdaleMIWeather Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 Watches issued Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 2 minutes ago, HillsdaleMIWeather said: Watches issued IWX for 5-9. DTX/GRR are holding off due to ongoing event, but sounds like they are leaning in that direction as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted February 7, 2018 Share Posted February 7, 2018 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: Euro sort of a wet blanket for areas west of Chicago. Chicago and of course southern/southeast MI still do pretty well with the Euro, but areas further west are pretty lame compared to the other guidance. The Euro has had a rough go of late, but it looks pretty realistic to me in how it depicts the evolution of things. I can't ever recall seeing such a heavy WAA wing type event for this area like the GFS/GEM/NAM shows. Seems a bit unrealistic based on the fact I've never seen an event evolve like that ever here. Quality WAA wing type events pretty much always stay north of here, more up towards far northern IL/southern WI. Think the GFS and others will trend towards the Euro on this. Expecting a meager advisory event here at best despite the asinine outputs by the GFS/GEM/NAM. Early call for the whole period for here/QC is 3-6", but wouldn't be surprised if it's more of a 2-4" type of deal. Would still be a pretty nice little seasonal event, but will probably end up being a meager/forgettable event. Heavy snows of 6-10" will align from far southern WI through southern-lower MI. 100% agree. This looks like an almost non-event for MBY...thinking 1-3" total by the time it's all done, hoping the last push drops a little something. Riding the Euro which has been north of here all along. Looks like the 6z NAM has moved to it's camp as well. Good luck to those up north. Should be a really solid event for you ORD, MKE, DTW, etc folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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