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UlsterCountySnowZ

Feb 7th snow threat

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As of this morning most guidance drops appreciable snow 4-8/6-10+ across the interior, with 1-3" close the coast, recent runs have suggested a colder solution, while the Nam/euro remain on the warmer end of guidance...can the Cold injection outrun the southern vort? And will our SLP form over nyc? Or south like the ukie? 

 

 

F9B15E78-66CA-4AAE-AE13-FCB0E05C09DD.png

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11 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

As of this morning most guidance drops appreciable snow 4-8/6-10+ across the interior, with 1-3" close the coast, recent runs have suggested a colder solution, while the Nam/euro remain on the warmer end of guidance...can the Cold injection outrun the southern vort? And will our SLP form over nyc? Or south like the ukie? 

 

 

F9B15E78-66CA-4AAE-AE13-FCB0E05C09DD.png

For the coast it’s all about getting this to speed up. 1-3” can be fairly impactful if it happens right before and during rush hour

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3 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

For the coast it’s all about getting this to speed up. 1-3” can be fairly impactful if it happens right before and during rush hour

Would need a bid speed up as of now, models bring this in around 18z (1pm)

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I wonder if the precip will come in faster than modeled. That will help the whole area, especially the coast. I do think that this will be a mostly rain event for the coast but a mix inland and mostly snow for the far interior areas near Albany.

It all depends on where the low ends up tracking.

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45 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

I wonder if the precip will come in faster than modeled. That will help the whole area, especially the coast. I do think that this will be a mostly rain event for the coast but a mix inland and mostly snow for the far interior areas near Albany.

It all depends on where the low ends up tracking.

Agreed, but i dont think you need to go all the way to albany to see all snow from this

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GFS looks great for a thump before it switches to rain for areas just to the north and west of NYC.

Far interior areas stay all snow on the GFS

If only we had a high up north. This would have been a good storm for everyone.

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5 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

GFS looks great for a thump before it switches to rain for areas just to the north and west of NYC.

Far interior areas stay all snow on the GFS

If only we had a high up north. This would have been a good storm for everyone.

you city guys lol... :)

 

 

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10 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

GFS fairly unchanged, north of 84 is all snow

The marker for this event will be I-84.. North of there looking good, south of there a mix is inevitable. 

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6 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Since I've moved here the traditional line for a mix runs from the Western Orange County/Sussex County border. North of there primarily stays all snow, south of there mixes. Hopefully we get one more cool down.

Expecting 6-8" here with some ip/zr. Areas of Sullivan/W Ulster should be in the 8-12" jackpot.

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10 minutes ago, nesussxwx said:

Since I've moved here the traditional line for a mix runs from the Western Orange County/Sussex County border. North of there primarily stays all snow, south of there mixes. Hopefully we get one more cool down.

The ole' 287 cut-off used to be the mix line.  I remember driving anywhere from 5-10 minutes down the road (big change in elevation) and there would be very little accumulation/wet snow.  By me, it was all snow.

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4 minutes ago, snywx said:

Expecting 6-8" here with some ip/zr. Areas of Sullivan/W Ulster should be in the 8-12" jackpot.

I really think, (if the gfs were right) this line pushes a little further south, its not an impressive warm nose, were talking 1 Degree C just above the surface giving us the freezing rain signal, as was the last storm our cold is usually undersold

sasasas.png

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3 minutes ago, UlsterCountySnowZ said:

I really think, (if the gfs were right) this line pushes a little further south, its not an impressive warm nose, were talking 1 Degree C just above the surface giving us the freezing rain signal, as was the last storm our cold is usually undersold

sasasas.png

Agreed. Cold def over performed with yesterdays event. Never got above 32°. 

Upton going with 8-12" IMBY

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