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Bonafide SWFE 2/7-8

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4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m still thinking about these last adjustments NW. 

Models will tickle NW and then everything will go a little colder during nowcast time. I feel like that is a common theme for these SWFEs. 

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9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Models will tickle NW and then everything will go a little colder during nowcast time. I feel like that is a common theme for these SWFEs. 

We can almost take this to the bank. Some of the southern weenies started getting excited yesterday but the guidance from the last 12 hours has been predictable.

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12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Models will tickle NW and then everything will go a little colder during nowcast time. I feel like that is a common theme for these SWFEs. 

 Pretty much.  Hoping for a few inches here but at least it doesn’t look like it will be washed away since any rain that does fall looks to fall with temps in the 30s hopefully 

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

 Pretty much.  Hoping for a few inches here but at least it doesn’t look like it will be washed away since any rain that does fall looks to fall with temps in the 30s hopefully 

You may be good for 3-6.

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 And yeah the so-called one tongue is actually fairly low. Hopefully with the high in a position like Will said it will help fend off any warmth that does come. 

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57 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GC over to N ORH county to S NH might get smoked for a 6-8 hour period. Wouldn't be shocked if they saw 8-10" in 6-7 hours.

Timing and dumpage  12/13/07 ish

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25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

 And yeah the so-called one tongue is actually fairly low. Hopefully with the high in a position like Will said it will help fend off any warmth that does come. 

Yeah - it's a little unusual for a SWFE. Peak "warmth" is right at 850.... normally we get that 700mb garbage. 

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

Yeah - it's a little unusual for a SWFE. Peak "warmth" is right at 850.... normally we get that 700mb garbage. 

It's kind of anecdotal, but I have noticed in previous events where the warm tongue was lower, they tended to go colder as we got in nowcast mode. It makes sense as the models will under estimate the CAD more the lower we get in the atmosphere.

We do have the problem of ironing out the track first though...if we wiggle west, it's gonna be warmer.

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Yeah def a tick colder on this run. That's really cold at the sfc too...BOS even has a hard time going above freezing....forget about the suburbs.

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1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Kuchie struggles in the marginal layers. 

Yes it does...I'd prob bring the whole thing about 20-30 miles south. It's def still got a lot of non-snow frozen precip though on this run...as Ryan mentioned, it's still blowing the mid-level warmth to the NH border. But the algorithm prob flipping precip to IP/ZR a bit too fast during the WAA phase.

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