Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 all this consternation ? it's needle threading hand-wringing incarnate. This is what it means to be an Olympic Archery hopeful - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I doubt nw of 84 flips to rain in this setup. If we do, it’s not for long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 MAV with a 6 for BOS fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Big snow numbers! boston-Norwood 6 worcestor-bdl and north including Bedford 8+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 13 minutes ago, weathafella said: MAV with a 6 for BOS fwiw. What about other locations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 15 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: looked to me like the 06z and 12z thermal fielding matched pretty well ... but the progressivity is conserved differently.. That gives the 'appeal' of a cooler profiling -- just using the tid-bits site ... but hour to hour, the 66 hour 06z position had the low over NYC ... this run at that same interval is eastern CT... that 100 miles or so of difference it making it look cooler on the NW side. Bottom line, these differences may just be noise... I think also I am a little leery of tossing the NAM because it may be handling this pattern well - the last system it pretty much nailed. It stuck with that idea from 78 hour on and well...events matched that general idea well last evening. When events are transpiring in situ the same pattern, they do tend to behave with similarities. I dunno - I think though that this may be icing and not well modeled for obvious headaches/reasons... "if" one were to go with the NAM. Obviously, GGEM is more snow. Yea, I agree with all points. Storm is more convective in nature - doesn't follow classic syntopic wave development--so should theoretically be more useful here... I think many are also looking at the Canadian HP, expecting this to just force our storm to the SE of SNE. Problem with that is there is strong surface HP all across the West Atlantic - and unlike the fleeting Canadian HP, it has UL support to remain there. That means the path of least resistance - if you will - isn't due east - it's to follow the fleeting Canadian HP.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 hour ago, #NoPoles said: It's a SWFE, the minute you heard it was that type of system, you know that means, the coastal plain and coast line Boston south is usually just plain rain...or maybe inch of snow before it goes to rain This isn't accurate. The coast near Boston usually does well given a well placed high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: What about other locations? Look at the post above yours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 GGEM finally rolling in...more amped than 00z...but similar to the GFS, it has some really impressive front end stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12z CMC is out and its amped and warmer for areas south of the pike, CT actually on the front end but looks to flip to snow on the back end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: Look at the post above yours. I knew you could it do it, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: I doubt nw of 84 flips to rain in this setup. If we do, it’s not for long. We’ll have some sleet , but with everything thumping and leaning colder it will be 90% snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll have some sleet , but with everything thumping and leaning colder it will be 90% snow I'd bet you get a lot of non-snow...might have to be careful of icing for a long while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Man that is sweet towards SNH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: We’ll have some sleet , but with everything thumping and leaning colder it will be 90% snow I’m leaning 3-5” across 84 with 5-8” in the hills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Man that is sweet towards SNH. GC over to N ORH county to S NH might get smoked for a 6-8 hour period. Wouldn't be shocked if they saw 8-10" in 6-7 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'd bet you get a lot of non-snow...might have to be careful of icing for a long while. I’m thinking 3-5” to sleet to zr . Maybe if Gfs is right back to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: GC over to N ORH county to S NH might get smoked for a 6-8 hour period. Wouldn't be shocked if they saw 8-10" in 6-7 hours. I think I have a 50/50 shot of 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: I’m thinking 3-5” to sleet to zr . Maybe if Gfs is right back to snow I think that is realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I have a 50/50 shot of 6". I think if the euro at least holds ground and does not come in warmer, high chance. You also may get some CF action. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think I have a 50/50 shot of 6". Yeah I'd agree...high is in a good spot for you. The models are trying to punch the warmth tongue pretty low down...like 900-850mb...that sort of "bothers" me a bit for predicting a warmer system...usually they punch the warmth up higher in the 800-750 range. The lower warm tongue has a better chance to be blunted by high pressure N of Maine....so we will see what happens over the next 24 hours on these model runs. The 12z runs are trying to tick warmer overall (also heavier precip), but I won't be surprised if we see them go back colder a little tonight or tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I think that is realistic. Statements never made about a DIT snow forecast ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah I'd agree...high is in a good spot for you. The models are trying to punch the warmth tongue pretty low down...like 900-850mb...that sort of "bothers" me a bit for predicting a warmer system...usually they punch the warmth up higher in the 800-750 range. The lower warm tongue has a better chance to be blunted by high pressure N of Maine....so we will see what happens over the next 24 hours on these model runs. The 12z runs are trying to tick warmer overall (also heavier precip), but I won't be surprised if we see them go back colder a little tonight or tomorrow. Yea, my area could actually avail of a lower warm punch by way of increased low level convergence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigfoot Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 NWS going KALB,8”/12” ,Shades Back Open _/\(* *)/\_ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think if the euro at least holds ground and does not come in warmer, high chance. You also may get some CF action. I'm half-expecting the Euro to track this over ORH. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 That’s a major front ended on CMC for Boston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm half-expecting the Euro to track this over ORH. And your other half expectations are? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm half-expecting the Euro to track this over ORH. I’m still thinking about these last adjustments NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 12z Reggie still hitting the sauce Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 I'm good for a 4" snowfall at worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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