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weathafella

Bonafide SWFE 2/7-8

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1 hour ago, NorEastermass128 said:

BOX pretty meh for the coast. Dang it 

It's a SWFE, the minute you heard it was that type of system, you know that means, the coastal plain and coast line Boston south is usually just plain rain...or maybe inch of snow before it goes to rain

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NAM def ticked colder...it was on the warmer side of guidance previously. Hopefully that's a good sign. But I obviously wouldn't trust anything it does. RGEM is still out of range too...maybe by tonight's run it will have a better idea.

 

 

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM def ticked colder...it was on the warmer side of guidance previously. Hopefully that's a good sign. But I obviously wouldn't trust anything it does. RGEM is still out of range too...maybe by tonight's run it will have a better idea.

 

 

Geezuz extended RGEM is a total thump MPM Dendrite Jeffaffa  Portland foot plus

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Looks like maybe a low end warning event here. The better amounts will be just to my southeast but still a solid pickup.

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1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Geezuz extended RGEM is a total thump MPM Dendrite Jeffaffa  Portland foot plus

Yeah 06z run, right? Seems like 12z is delayed today.

It's prob too juiced...usually I play it a bit more conservative in SWFEs (max around 10") unless we get some evidence that a CCB is trying to pop before it exits stage right....kind of like 2/2/15

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Aren't these types of systems usually not all snow for areas south and east of I84/I90?  Always seems like a rain component involved at the end, or more much of it. 

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1 minute ago, Cold Miser said:

Aren't these types of systems usually not all snow for areas south and east of I84/I90?  Always seems like a rain component involved at the end, or more much of it. 

Correct.

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3 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Aren't these types of systems usually not all snow for areas south and east of I84/I90?  Always seems like a rain component involved at the end, or more much of it. 

Sleet!

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8 minutes ago, eyewall said:

Looks like maybe a low end warning event here. The better amounts will be just to my southeast but still a solid pickup.

 

Frazier-Crane.jpg

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

 

Frazier-Crane.jpg

You look like you will do well :) You are in a good spot for this one.

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4 minutes ago, eyewall said:

You look like you will do well :) You are in a good spot for this one.

I think so.  We usually do ok with these type of events.  

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Looks like GFS may be a bit more amped.

Not surprising...06z run was pretty cold...almost kept it all snow N of pike.

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Kind of a paradox...the stronger more amped system actually might bring heavier snow with the increased isentropic lift/WAA precip. You obviously don't want it too amped as to shove all the dynamics west...but the GFS shows that you can gain some benefit with an increased LLJ out of the south.

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Would be a nasty freeze up too with a quick flip back to ice and snow verbatim on the GFS. Despite the low near the canal, the cold does not get dislodged IMO just NW of the city.

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3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Would be a nasty freeze up too with a quick flip back to ice and snow verbatim on the GFS. Despite the low near the canal, the cold does not get dislodged IMO just NW of the city.

Sfc low becomes elongated from NE to SW so it's gonna have a big ageostrophic N component...zero chance the interior goes above freezing on that. Could be some nasty glaze for a time just west of the city.

 

Only way that doesn't happen is if this gets amped enough to try and come inland...then you might only see the typical N ORH county to Berks stay below freezing. That's what the 00z Euro tried to do, but I have a feeling it's prob too amped.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

NAM def ticked colder...it was on the warmer side of guidance previously. Hopefully that's a good sign. But I obviously wouldn't trust anything it does. RGEM is still out of range too...maybe by tonight's run it will have a better idea.

 

 

looked to me like the 06z and 12z thermal fielding matched pretty well ... but the progressivity is conserved differently..  That gives the 'appeal' of a cooler profiling -- just using the tid-bits site ... but hour to hour, the 66 hour 06z position had the low over NYC ... this run at that same interval is eastern CT... that 100 miles or so of difference it making it look cooler on the NW side.

Bottom line, these differences may just be noise...  

I think also I am a little leery of tossing the NAM because it may be handling this pattern well - the last system it pretty much nailed.  It stuck with that idea from 78 hour on and well...events matched that general idea well last evening.  When events are transpiring in situ the same pattern, they do tend to behave with similarities.  I dunno - 

I think though that this may be icing and not well modeled for obvious headaches/reasons... "if" one were to go with the NAM.  Obviously, GGEM is more snow.

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