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weathafella

Bonafide SWFE 2/7-8

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1 hour ago, powderfreak said:

Doesn't seem too unreasonable I guess... hard to say though as at that temp sometimes you're getting big aggregates that stack up.  I  mean 34F needles yeah, you're getting sometime a bit better than sleet.

Well that may have been a bad example. A MaxT of 32F yields you only 8:1...30F would be 10:1.

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6 minutes ago, 25thamendmentfan said:

Fall river is usually good for 4 inches in these events, especially a mile north of the old harbor mall in the south end and more than that up toward Freetown.

Yeah. A few inches is doable in quite a few of these. The problem is that there is a quick change to rain and temps up around 40. So whatever falls gets washed away. Interior fares a lot better because they get more snow and maybe end as some freezing drizzle. No. Attleboro should do somewhat better but you and I both do better with coastals with a cold supply moving over the b/m.

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15 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Wowwww 6"....cool.....I just got that in this last little pooper.  Wake me up when we get 12 to 18 

You have been spoiled.  6” in this pattern is decent.  We might do a bit better than that if the cards lay right

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Hopefully we (NYC, costal SNE) can catch a break with this one, haven't seen a plowable snow in a month now.

I remember we had two of these in 14-15. Feb 21st and Mar 1st that both trended significantly colder run after run. 

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You can pretty much lock this forecast in SNE .. barring some massive colder trend.

1-3 to ice to rain S CT

3-5” N CT to ice ending as 33 dz

6” + Pike north .. sleet washing out juuuuuust shy of ORH and Will posting radar images and commenting on it .

MPM N and W 8-10”

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7 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Hopefully we (NYC, costal SNE) can catch a break with this one, haven't seen a plowable snow in a month now.

I remember we had two of these in 14-15. Feb 21st and Mar 1st that both trended significantly colder run after run. 

Maybe coastal SNE.  NYC ceiling on this is likely 3/4 inches and that’s stretching now.  The only way we exceed that in these events is if it comes in way early or has banding 

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

You can pretty much lock this forecast in SNE .. barring some massive colder trend.

1-3 to ice to rain S CT

3-5” N CT to ice ending as 33 dz

6” + Pike north .. sleet washing out juuuuuust shy of ORH and Will posting radar images and commenting on it .

MPM N and W 8-10”

Please let ALL models continue to trend colder,

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23 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Yeah.  They are def more of an interior bonus.   What are you at for the season?

I'd say we're at about 25-28 for the season. I did really well on the 1/4 event b/c I was just on the right side of the cf. Did well last Tuesday too. But hey. As has been said before SE Mass has done well in recent years so no complaints from me.

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1 minute ago, Bostonseminole said:

gfs a little colder again, the surface low is over NYC instead of N PA on this run

It looked basically the same in the midlevels. Maybe even the slightest tick warmer though that might be also due to it being a little faster than 12z. Pretty close to as "no change" as you can get though at 3 days out. 

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8 minutes ago, weathafella said:

SWFE is not part of the GFS wheelhouse.

The NAM isnt exactly great either beyond 36 with them.  I find it usually has a cold bias or sometimes is too far south beyond that 

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10 minutes ago, weathafella said:

SWFE is not part of the GFS wheelhouse.

What is?  lol.  It should be better than the NAM past 48 hours though.

Honestly though it's solution looks pretty similar to the EURO.

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Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM isnt exactly great either beyond 36 with them.  I find it usually has a cold bias or sometimes is too far south beyond that 

That's why it seems like SWFE tick warmer in the final 24 hours, at least with mid-level warmth.  How many times have we seen the sleet line get further north than progged, but SFC temps stay colder than progged.

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6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

That's why it seems like SWFE tick warmer in the final 24 hours, at least with mid-level warmth.  How many times have we seen the sleet line get further north than progged, but SFC temps stay colder than progged.

Some do, some don't.  All depends upon how strong the primary is that cuts west.  I haven't peeked much at this but it does not appear as though models are too far off with the basic track.  Will boil down to the MLs and strength.  We do know the GFS has had a warm bias at the surface but that does not mean it's correct.  We have also seen the Euro not be the stellar model that it has historically been around here.  Right now I'd say a compromise is in order.

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17 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Some do, some don't.  All depends upon how strong the primary is that cuts west.  I haven't peeked much at this but it does not appear as though models are too far off with the basic track.  Will boil down to the MLs and strength.  We do know the GFS has had a warm bias at the surface but that does not mean it's correct.  We have also seen the Euro not be the stellar model that it has historically been around here.  Right now I'd say a compromise is in order.

Yeah, those are prime events around here and sometimes it flips and sponges the pack and other times it is a light freezing mist to end on top of 8" of dense.  Hoping for that on Wed.

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