HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 From the Google... Determine maximum temperature between the surface and 500 mb = Tmax, and then If Tmax > 271.16K, then snow ratio = 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-Tmax) If Tmax ≤ 271.16K, then snow ratio = 12.0+ 1.0*(271.16-Tmax) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: From the Google... Determine maximum temperature between the surface and 500 mb = Tmax, and then If Tmax > 271.16K, then snow ratio = 12.0 + 2.0*(271.16-Tmax) If Tmax ≤ 271.16K, then snow ratio = 12.0+ 1.0*(271.16-Tmax) For the Kelvin challenged... Determine maximum temperature between the surface and 500 mb = Tmax, and then If Tmax > -2C, then snow ratio = 12.0 + 2.0*[(-2)-Tmax] If Tmax ≤ -2C, then snow ratio = 12.0+ 1.0*[(-2)-Tmax] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, dendrite said: For the Kelvin challenged... Determine maximum temperature between the surface and 500 mb = Tmax, and then If Tmax > -2C, then snow ratio = 12.0 + 2.0*[(-2)-Tmax] If Tmax ≤ -2C, then snow ratio = 12.0+ 1.0*[(-2)-Tmax] That also shows how weenieish Kuchara can be if you have a frigid event. It will give like 20 to 1 ratios just because its cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said: Correct. What are the chances of this thing moving further south/east off the coast, giving prolonged snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Wow, thanks guys. So much great info! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said: Wow, thanks guys. So much great info! Lots of info in this thread from a few years ago: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 EPS deets? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: EPS deets? Typical....they look almost exactly like the OP like they usually do this close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 39 minutes ago, snowgeek said: Thanks, but I only see maps through 48 hours. How do ya get the 84 hour extended? I'm confused lol. 34 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You have to manually change the hour number in the address bar, but you first need copy the location of the actual image which is different than what is in the address bar....so for example, the snow precip is located here:http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_12/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif Change that 48 near the end to an 84 and you'll get the extended map. You can change it to anything else too like 60 hours or 54 hours. this, You can go in 12 hr increments starting at 48hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2018 Author Share Posted February 5, 2018 The fascination with snow maps is understandable but my understanding is they are not produced by the model-they are vendor products. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 4 minutes ago, weathafella said: The fascination with snow maps is understandable but my understanding is they are not produced by the model-they are vendor products. I birthday snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: The fascination with snow maps is understandable but my understanding is they are not produced by the model-they are vendor products. who produces Mexican dinners? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, weathafella said: The fascination with snow maps is understandable but my understanding is they are not produced by the model-they are vendor products. Nothing replicates good ole fashioned soundings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 10 minutes ago, weathafella said: The fascination with snow maps is understandable but my understanding is they are not produced by the model-they are vendor products. Correct. The model produces QPF and the model produces the temp soundings...the vendors try to put those two together to produce the snowfall map, but as we know, they can be wildly inaccurate. Anyways, lets see where this heads. I'd prob keep is semi-conservative for the pike region right now...3-6" would be my call with plenty of IP/ZR in there. I think Rt 2 and northward is golden for >6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowgeek Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 You have to manually change the hour number in the address bar, but you first need copy the location of the actual image which is different than what is in the address bar....so for example, the snow precip is located here:http://img.meteocentre.com/models/gemreg_amer_qc_12/accum/SN_000-048_0000.gif Change that 48 near the end to an 84 and you'll get the extended map. You can change it to anything else too like 60 hours or 54 hours.Tricky Lol. Thanks. I’m in on the secret. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 And southern CT, south coast of NE, LI, NYC gets screwed once again, 1-2" of slop then washed away by rain. oh joy. this winter is really starting to piss me off. Nothing plowable in 1 month+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Typical....they look almost exactly like the OP like they usually do this close in. Was curious how many colder se solutions were there. thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Correct. The model produces QPF and the model produces the temp soundings...the vendors try to put those two together to produce the snowfall map, but as we know, they can be wildly inaccurate. Anyways, lets see where this heads. I'd prob keep is semi-conservative for the pike region right now...3-6" would be my call with plenty of IP/ZR in there. I think Rt 2 and northward is golden for >6" Ryan’s thinking 3-6” N CT and 1-3” s CT. Plenty of ice on top to lock in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 NAM looks a bit snowier. Also, 512high will not like the GYX update. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: NAM looks a bit snowier. Also, 512high will not like the GYX update. LOL. 2 to 4 coast on NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: Ryan’s thinking 3-6” N CT and 1-3” s CT. Plenty of ice on top to lock in what does he say about the inch the NAM brings tomorrow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 14 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said: And southern CT, south coast of NE, LI, NYC gets screwed once again, 1-2" of slop then washed away by rain. oh joy. this winter is really starting to piss me off. Nothing plowable in 1 month+ If it helps you, we didn't have much plowable up here in January either. Yesterday was the first good plowable event in quite a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM looks a bit snowier. Also, 512high will not like the GYX update. LOL. 12z was arguable similar in the thermal fielding compared to priors.. This one is a bit more obviously colder. I don't think 'icing' is a huge concern where it does due to speed of this thing. In and out in 9 hours. If come to work earliy, and leave late, you may just not have to deal with... Or, work from home - actually, mm, upon closer inspection it's not hugely colder either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: what does he say about the inch the NAM brings tomorrow? We didn’t talk about. What is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: NAM looks a bit snowier. Also, 512high will not like the GYX update. LOL. See this is why we love SWFE. Look how uniform that is...and the spots to the south get sleet/zr to lock it in. Just a widespread 4-9" or 5-10" type event. None of that 18" vs. cirrus stuff, haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Sharp cutoff down that way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Right on the snow gradient per latest GYX snow map. Lol that's always fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: See this is why we love SWFE. Look how uniform that is...and the spots to the south get sleet/zr to lock it in. Just a widespread 4-9" or 5-10" type event. None of that 18" vs. cirrus stuff, haha. They are uniform on distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 NAM is still trying to track the sfc low pretty far west...like over interior eastern SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2018 Share Posted February 5, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: NAM is still trying to track the sfc low pretty far west...like over interior eastern SNE. 3K is near PYM which makes more sense. Quite a little snow event too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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