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Bonafide SWFE 2/7-8


weathafella

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They have the upper and midlevels down pretty well, but these sfc low tracks over the interior won't happen...bring down the surface temps too to the north of that front...you'll be wedged frozen still at 00z tomorrow. You prob flip to IP/ZR at some point but it's not warming above freezing.

Quick question about this...I know we talked about this a few weeks ago how lows will either go NW of the mountains or SE to the coast, but we've had a few events lately where they have gone right through SNE/CNE.  Highly anomalous tracks but isn't that what the one two nights ago did?

Are those riding a boundary and that's why?  Or is this more of a function of the high pressure squeezing it south?

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1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

This looks like a completely different event. I'm lost looking at this...

well... for the general reader, be leery of this situation as it is being portrayed subtly better or worse for particular user. 

It's probably a testament to the system being right down our throats that we can cherry pick a model that fits therein

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4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

well... for the general reader, be leery of this situation as it is being portrayed subtly better or worse for particular user. 

It's probably a testament to the system being right down our throats that we can cherry pick a model that fits therein

valid point. But to counter that, I've also learned that when making a decision, its best to weigh based on "believability" and remove opinions (models) that have none. Less is sometimes more...

 

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3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

Quick question about this...I know we talked about this a few weeks ago how lows will either go NW of the mountains or SE to the coast, but we've had a few events lately where they have gone right through SNE/CNE.  Highly anomalous tracks but isn't that what the one two nights ago did?

Are those riding a boundary and that's why?  Or is this more of a function of the high pressure squeezing it south?

The one a couple nights ago had zero CAD...the high was like over the flemish cap...so there was almost no thermal gradient whatsoever to stop a low from coming inland. This case (as in most cases) is not like that...we have a clear CAD drain that makes it extremely difficult to penetrate lower pressures inland when there's a much easier path of less resistance to the south and southeast.

 

When you have any semblance of CAD, the way to get a low over like ORH is to have crazy upper air dynamics just to the west...like a huge neg tilt strong vortmax riding through ALB or something. We clearly don't have that here, so we're prob going to see one low try and go up toward BGM and another cut acorss the south coast of CT into RI/SE MA.

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1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

In the pope's defense, there has been nothing in the 12z suite that should bolster enthusiasm.  It's very possible a hot mess for much of the area with snow to slop.  Obviously there will be a gradient to who has more snow vs. slop.  Climo argues wintery, fortunately.

 

 

STFU snowman

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

The one a couple nights ago had zero CAD...the high was like over the flemish cap...so there was almost no thermal gradient whatsoever to stop a low from coming inland. This case (as in most cases) is not like that...we have a clear CAD drain that makes it extremely difficult to penetrate lower pressures inland when there's a much easier path of less resistance to the south and southeast.

 

When you have any semblance of CAD, the way to get a low over like ORH is to have crazy upper air dynamics just to the west...like a huge neg tilt strong vortmax riding through ALB or something. We clearly don't have that here, so we're prob going to see one low try and go up toward BGM and another cut acorss the south coast of CT into RI/SE MA.

swiss cheese shows exactly that

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5 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Crusty 4-8'' Rt. 2 area and north, west of 495 with 8-10'' in dendriteland. In the 10 years I've been reading the evolution of boards that became American Weather I don't think it has ever rained in my hood during a SWFE. Doesn't happen. 

I like Nashua better than my location for this. You stay frozen.

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