STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 We tobin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Tossed....it's not tracking over BDL. Prob partied a bit too hard down in the southeast after 18 hours. Yea not happening Picklett Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Siker Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 About half an inch here, did a great job of concealing the icy patches on the walk to class. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Tossed....it's not tracking over BDL. Prob partied a bit too hard down in the southeast after 18 hours. Yeah, None of the other models has this tracking over that area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 That's a nice hit on the NAM...juicy juicy J. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: You are always surprised, lol nice but it was shown After a while you stop paying attention to all the 0.01" type QPF panels that are always rotting around the mountains lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Yeah, None of the other models has this tracking over that area. You can actually follow the exact piece of vorticity that the low tracks along starting around 21 hours near Memphis, TN. The thing just goes right along that vorticity all the way into interior SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Yea not happening Picklett I’ve never seen anyone lose it like him. It’s like he actually believes the NAM can happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: That's a nice hit on the NAM...juicy juicy J. enjoy your afternoon ski in the Sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Tossed....it's not tracking over BDL. Prob partied a bit too hard down in the southeast after 18 hours. ORH isnt getting into the mid 40s. Curious to see the 3km, it was colder than the 12km at 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: You can actually follow the exact piece of vorticity that the low tracks along starting around 21 hours near Memphis, TN. The thing just goes right along that vorticity all the way into interior SNE. It seems that every time i have seen models do this with convection it actually ends up east of where it has it, Already seen it a happen a couple times this year, Tossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, wx2fish said: ORH isnt getting into the mid 40s. Curious to see the 3km, it was colder than the 12km at 6z No way they are going to be that warm, The 3km has been colder then the 12km the last few runs, 2.6" snow on the 06z on the 12km, And 9.7" snow on the the 06z 3km here............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, dryslot said: No way they are going to be that warm, The 3km has been colder then the 12km the last few runs, 2.6" snow on the 06z 12km and 9.7" snow on the the 06z 3km here............. Is that really all the NAM is giving you? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, wx2fish said: ORH isnt getting into the mid 40s. Curious to see the 3km, it was colder than the 12km at 6z The whole run after that "convection gone wild" part in the southeast after about 18 hours is suspect. We obviously know sometimes convection can be real, but this was a bit extreme IMHO...it took the convection and used the ball of vorticity it created to run the low all the way into interior SNE...it followed it perfectly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Killington will have like 30" this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: Is that really all the NAM is giving you? 06z it was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnno Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 About 1/2” new fluffies here still showery type activity this am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: 06z it was I thought it looked like 7-8" haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 I don't think the NAM run is off, and I'm certainly not tossing it. I don't see any reason to toss it. The mid level and low level flow is out of the south and east, for hours leading up to go time, and during the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: I thought it looked like 7-8" haha. It was a little more generous this run, It gives me 4" while 2 miles north its 9" lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, jbenedet said: I don't think the NAM run is off, and I'm certainly not tossing it. I don't see any reason to toss it. The mid level and low level flow is out of the south and east, for hours leading up to go time, and during the storm. Highly doubtful the sfc low tracks that far inland. More likely over SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Highly doubtful the sfc low tracks that far inland. More likely over SE MA. Hopefully that's the case. Meanwhile, huge Currier and Ives goose feathers dumping down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Highly doubtful the sfc low tracks that far inland. More likely over SE MA. But it can't go much further east - look at all the HP out in the West Atlantic.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 All other guidance takes the low over SE Mass, I don't know how you don't discount the Nam, Its on its own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Highly doubtful the sfc low tracks that far inland. More likely over SE MA. Would be suspect given my anecdotal experiences living here. Not a track you see too often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 If someone thinks the NAM is right .. or is using it, I’d ask if they’ve been drinking this morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 1 minute ago, dryslot said: All other guidance takes the low over SE Mass, I don't know how you don't discount the Nam, Its on its own. That was the first 12z run of the suite. I don't have any reason to discount it (yet). I've been leaning warmer for days with this for reasons I've previously described... Also given the convective nature of this event, I think the mesos will have more use here. The nam performed well with the previous event which was similar to this. In addition, the mesos - particularly the high res - are usually superior at picking up BL temps at this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: If someone thinks the NAM is right .. or is using it, I’d ask if they’ve been drinking this morning That's not very nice...it is a possible solution (although I doubt it happens) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 6, 2018 Author Share Posted February 6, 2018 Pope, after you’re here for awhile longer you’ll realize these events are often very nice events for many pike north. I’ll be surprised if you don’t get 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted February 6, 2018 Share Posted February 6, 2018 13 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Killington will have like 30" this week. thats a great hit! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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