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Early February Hyperactivity


Stebo

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44 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z GFS and GDPS still on track for a band of 0.3" qpf across Iowa from the lead wave Monday.  With ratios of 15+ to 1 expected, this wave may be very similar to the one that dropped 5 inches here at the end of December.  I would be thrilled with that.

Feeling pretty good about a nice little 2-3" event here with that.  Won't buy into the higher ratios until the event is ongoing.  With the way things have been going the past 4 months I'm sort of just waiting for subsequent runs to start walking back QPF a little at a time.  Hope that doesn't happen, but won't surprise me.  

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47 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said:

00z GFS and GDPS still on track for a band of 0.3" qpf across Iowa from the lead wave Monday.  With ratios of 15+ to 1 expected, this wave may be very similar to the one that dropped 5 inches here at the end of December.  I would be thrilled with that.

That storm gets a rare A+ from me, and is single handedly keeping this winter out of the "F" range. Daytime, good rates, easy to shovel, over performer--it had everything I want in a snow event.

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And the Euro trends the wrong way with the mid week system, seen this game enough this winter to know where it is going...
Since obviously modeling is non-linear, would like to give it more time, but can't fault the thinking it's gonna end up like the other attempts.

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

Since obviously modeling is non-linear, would like to give it more time, but can't fault the thinking it's gonna end up like the other attempts.

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Oh I agree, that was more of a tongue-in-cheek post, but it is frustrating to have the same let down happen at this range over and over. I mean at this point if we had all the snow the Euro and GFS showed at this range, I'd be pushing 80" easily. We have had 2 or 3 storms modeled over a foot vanish around this time range already this winter.

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17 minutes ago, Stebo said:

And the Euro trends the wrong way with the mid week system, seen this game enough this winter to know where it is going...

That's one of those where the run is not that bad in the area that gets impacted, but it stinks in the context of what previous runs had been showing.

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Oh I agree, that was more of a tongue-in-cheek post, but it is frustrating to have the same let down happen at this range over and over. I mean at this point if we had all the snow the Euro and GFS showed at this range, I'd be pushing 80" easily. We have had 2 or 3 storms modeled over a foot vanish around this time range already this winter.

It's been a frustrating winter for sure trying to get one of these modeled bigger storms to actually work out and failing every time thus far. So much digital snow from every model and seemingly poorer performance relatively close in.

 

I was encouraged when the 12z Euro didn't trend worse after the GFS improved through the 18z suite, but was not under any illusion that this was likely heading toward working out here. At least trends look pretty decent for the Monday clipper. Hoping things come back some with the mid week system on the 06z and 12z runs.

 

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1 minute ago, RCNYILWX said:

It's been a frustrating winter for sure trying to get one of these modeled bigger storms to actually work out and failing every time thus far. So much digital snow from every model and seemingly poorer performance relatively close in.

I was encouraged when the 12z Euro didn't trend worse after the GFS improved through the 18z suite, but was not under any illusion that this was likely heading toward working out here. At least trends look pretty for the Monday clipper. Hoping things come back some with the mid week system on the 06z and 12z runs.

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Yeah the Monday thing is looking interesting, I just hope it doesn't dampen out too quickly as it moves east.

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The problem is, every time we get something to come out in that run, a massive high comes with it and crushes any potential to lift north. The -EPO is screwing things up big time.
Considering that most our biggest storms came during -EPO, not sure if that's the culprit. Seems more tied to the southern wave not fully ejecting out coherently and the sheared wave is allowed to be more easily suppressed southeastward by the northern stream. The northern stream also appeared a hair quicker digging in than previous runs.

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

Considering that most our biggest storms came during -EPO, not sure if that's the culprit. Seems more tied to the southern wave not fully ejecting out coherently and the sheared wave is allowed to be more easily suppressed southeastward by the northern stream. The northern stream also appeared a hair quicker digging in than previous runs.

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True, but I think the magnitude of the -EPO combined with the +PNA just is crushing things, nothing is getting a chance to turn the corner. Basically everything is getting its head chopped off and unphasing so to speak.

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True, but I think the magnitude of the -EPO combined with the +PNA just is crushing things, nothing is getting a chance to turn the corner. Basically everything is getting its head chopped off and unphasing so to speak.
With the ridge axis off the west coast and troughing over the high Plains and Rockies front range, this actually falls out as a -PNA at the time of the system. But clearly the arctic high pressing quicker played a role this run. That's something that can be worked on, but we need that cleaner neutral/negative tilt wave ejection.

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Euro has been trashy this winter with storms...pun intended. Not sure its even worth looking at it outside 2-3 days...which I almost can't believe I'm saying. Nevertheless, looks like two corridors should do well with this series of impulses. MKE-ORD-DTW and north look pretty good for today through Monday...then STL-IND-CMH for the Tuesday-Wednesday piece. Places in-between might be left fighting for scraps when all is said and done. Wouldn't surprise me if MBY sees very little snow with this train, being stuck in the middle. But, good for the folks who do cash. Hopefully there's some overachieving...

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I've been watching the CMC modeling this winter and have been actually happy with the performance. Between this the HRRR and RAP on snow day I have felt very confident on my decisions while keeping my lots serviced. My bet is something is going to phase before spring, Wack-a-mole style... Much like Mondays over performer locally.

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

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12 hours ago, snowstormcanuck said:

In all honesty....I don't have any.

Ok...I'll say this best case scenario is probably still under 6". Fast moving open wave. I wouldn't invest a lot into it.

I'm actually thinking it could be a total miss for us to the southeast. It's funny how The Weather Network got people all hyped up about the potential for the biggest storm of the season - maybe 6-8" - and now it's totally fizzling. They are grasping at straws given they were calling for a snowier than average winter for us and are looking for something to deliver. 

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34 minutes ago, Ottawa Blizzard said:

I'm actually thinking it could be a total miss for us to the southeast. It's funny how The Weather Network got people all hyped up about the potential for the biggest storm of the season - maybe 6-8" - and now it's totally fizzling. They are grasping at straws given they were calling for a snowier than average winter for us and are looking for something to deliver. 

It's more about clicks and hype to create revenue.. So much click bait on that site any longer, sure some is weather relevant although more for entertainment.

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Yeah, I can't help get a bit excited about Monday.  Latest nam has a 0.50" qpf stripe through Cedar Rapids/Iowa City to the QC.  The snow could really pour down from midday to mid afternoon.  If we can just lock this qpf and track in together with perfect middle-of-the-day timing, this could really be a nice little thump.

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