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2018 Temperatures


chubbs
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21 hours ago, etudiant said:

Thank you for the explanation.

So it means the oceans are absorbing the heat and getting warmer?  Separately, what is 'negative SAL forcing' and what drives that?

Sahara Air Layer

Also, I hadn't heard the phrase "atmosphere depletion" either, but enhanced ocean heat uptake at the expense of less atmospheric heat uptake is the way I understood Vice-Regent's definition. Obviously the harder your compress the spring the more it fights back. In other words, the atmosphere will eventually respond to the ocean heat uptake. It always does.

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July 2018 Global Temperature Update

To sign up for our monthly update of global temperature (Maps and Graphs), click here.

Additional figures are on our global temperature web page.

8f1b6da1-4930-4ec8-94e4-e5655deedbfc.png
Heat waves seemed unusually widespread in July, as the media reported extreme heat in Europe, the Middle East, northern Africa, Japan and western United States.  Extreme heat contributed to extensive wildfires in the western United States, Greece and Sweden, with fire extending into the Arctic Circle.

The left map is the global distribution of temperature anomalies with our usual 1200 km smoothing; the right map has 250 km smoothing and uses only meteorological stations (no sea surface temperatures).   Area-weighted warming over land (1.14°C) is 1.5 times larger than global warming (0.78°C), consistent with data for the past century (see graphs at http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/T_moreFigs/).

Globally July 2018 was the third warmest July since reliable measurements began in 1880, 0.78°C warmer than the 1951-1980 mean.  The warmest Julys, in 2016 and 2017, were 0.82°C and 0.81°C, respectively.  July 2018 temperature was +1.06°C relative to the 1880-1920 base period, where the latter provides our best estimate of pre-industrial global temperature.

Continue reading:
http://www.columbia.edu/~mhs119/Temperature/Emails/July2018.pdf
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Our quarterly @CarbonBrief State of the Climate report is now out! So far 2018 has featured record-high ocean heat content, sea level, and greenhouse gas concentrations. Surface temperatures are on track to be the 4th warmest after 2016, 2017 and 2015. carbonbrief.org/state-of-the-c…pic.twitter.com/vLzGeBH5bl
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On 10/26/2018 at 10:59 PM, bdgwx said:

That's a great writeup bluewave. It's interesting how the variability in OHC declines through the years. By the 2000's the upward trend is very steady with little variation. Is there an explanation for this effect?

Could be an artifact of a growing network of observations. Before 2000 ocean heat content was very poorly measured especially at depth.

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The 4 warmest January to October periods have occurred in the last 4 years. Data using @NASAGISS GISTEMP since 1880. [Graphic fromcolumbia.edu/~mhs119/Temper…pic.twitter.com/g7WqwuVR0d
 
Similarly, preliminarily analysis from @NASAGISS shows October 2018 as the 2nd warmest on record (in at least 138 years) [GISTEMP method/data available at data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/pic.twitter.com/kpGygYCV5g
 
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Berkeley Earth came in at +0.88 for October. GISTEMP came in at +0.96.

As a point of reference at the peak in Feb. 2016 these values were +1.25 and +1.34 respectively.

Last October was +0.77 and +0.88. So it has warmed about +0.10 since this time last year. 

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From Nov. 2017 to Nov. 2018...

GISS +0.86 to +0.77 for ΔT = -0.09C

UAH +0.36 to +0.28 for ΔT = -0.08C

NCAR +0.42 to +0.32 for ΔT = -0.04C

CFSR +0.30 to +0.24 for ΔT = -0.06C

And here are the plots from GISS. Notice the disproportionate distribution of the anomalies over the northern polar region.

Ai7NT2H.png

 

18Qm7Je.png

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So as of 2018 the Earth is about 1.1C above the preindustrial average. Berkeley Earth says the warming rate is 0.19C/decade. Assuming that rate holds firm the Earth will achieve 3C of warming (the center of the IPCC's 1.5-4.5C envelope) by (3 - 1.1) / (0.19 * 10) + 2018 = 2118. And if CO2 concentration growth holds firm at about 2.3 ppm/yr we will reach a doubling at (280*2 - 410) / 2.3 + 2018 = 2083. The difference being 35 years which is in the ballpark of what you expect the lag of the transient climate response (TCR) and equilibrium climate response (ECR) to be. And analyzed in another way the TCR at 2083 using the 0.19C/decade rate is (2083 - 2018) * (0.19 / 10) + 1.1 = 2.3C. Thus the ratio of TCR=2.3C to ECR=3.0C is 0.75. Again this is in the ballpark of estimates derived from multiple lines of evidence. And one last point...if we assume TCR-to-ECR is 0.75 that means the 1.1C of warming of transient warming will produce 1.1 / 0.75 = 1.45C of equilibrium warming. In other words 1.5C of warming may already be baked in.

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https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/news/global-climate-201812

December’s combined global land and ocean average surface temperature departure from average was the second warmest December in the 139-year record. With 11 of 12 monthly global land and ocean temperature departures from average ranking among the five warmest for their respective months, 2018 became the fourth warmest year in NOAA's 139-year record.

 

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