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Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5

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The 6Z RGEM backed off to some degree, limiting the amount of freezing rain east of the Triad. Otherwise, it was close to previous runs. Just to add to the previous discussion, all three winter events in this area this season have been under forecast/poorly modeled outside of 12-24 hours. Take it for what it's worth. 

By the way, winter weather advisories have been hoisted. 

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WWA up
Total snow up to 1” an. Ice tenth

Advisory
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
328 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018

...Wintry Weather Expected Across Northeast Georgia and the
Western Carolinas Tonight...

.A moist low pressure system moving out of the gulf coastal region
will sweep northeast across the southern Appalachians tonight into
mid morning Sunday. Temperatures across the region will be
supportive of wintry precipitation, likely starting as a
rain/snow and sleet mix. Precipitation is expected to transition
to freezing rain as the morning evolves for locales along and
north of Interstate 85. Precipitation will then transition to all
rain by late morning as temperatures warm above critical levels.

GAZ010-017-018-NCZ068-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ001>008-010-031630-
/O.NEW.KGSP.WW.Y.0010.180204T0600Z-180204T1500Z/
Rabun-Habersham-Stephens-Cleveland-Greater Caldwell-Greater Burke-
Eastern McDowell-Greater Rutherford-Eastern Polk-Oconee Mountains-
Pickens Mountains-Greenville Mountains-Greater Oconee-
Greater Pickens-Greater Greenville-Spartanburg-Cherokee-Anderson-
Including the cities of Clayton, Pine Mountain, Mountain City,
Cornelia, Demorest, Clarkesville, Hollywood, Boydville, Toccoa,
Shelby, Kings Mountain, Kings Creek, Lenoir, Sawmills,
Granite Falls, Morganton, Pleasant Grove, Valdese, Marion, Nebo,
Dysartsville, Fero, Glenwood, Forest City, Rutherfordton,
Spindale, Tryon, Columbus, Mill Spring, Mountain Rest, Walhalla,
Westminster, Pumpkintown, Tigerville, Gowensville, Cleveland,
Seneca, Oakway, Easley, Dacusville, Clemson, Greenville, Taylors,
Greer, Mauldin, Fork Shoals, Simpsonville, Berea, Spartanburg,
Gaffney, and Anderson
328 AM EST Sat Feb 3 2018

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 10 AM EST
SUNDAY...

* WHAT...Mixed precipitation expected. Total snow accumulations
of up to one inch and ice accumulations of around one tenth
are expected.

* WHERE...Portions of upstate South Carolina, northeast Georgia,
and the northwest piedmont and foothills of western North
Carolina.

* WHEN...From 1 AM to 10 AM EST Sunday.



.

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Just glancing over model runs from last night and disco before i head to lake hartwell for fishing tournament. These event has had wheels for days in cad areas and has gotten a few more involved now. Thats awesome imo..i love sleet/pingers...WWA up. Rgem/Nam have held pretty steady for a significant little ice event...maybe a few fatties mixing in. 

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Hrrr looks like it's going to get precip here much quicker than the other short range modeling at 18hrs. It is also colder at the surface, has me at 32/23 at 1am.

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12 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

Hrrr looks like it's going to get precip here much quicker than the other short range modeling at 18hrs. It is also colder at the surface, has me at 32/23 at 1am.

Honestly, considering this is basically a sw flow event, models always have a hard time with predicting onset of precip. It always seems to come in much quicker than modeled so I would def not be shocked. Good for everyone though, as naturally earlier it comes in colder it will be at onset. We got down to 14 up here last night and temp has only gone up 3 degrees. Curious to see how warm it gets today.

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Talk about flirting with disaster. Meso models have us at 31-32 at the onset..

bust one or two degrees above freezing and it's a big nothing burger

bust 2 degrees and get to 29 and no one's watching the super bowl tomorrow

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Just now, WarmNose said:

Talk about flirting with disaster. Meso models have us at 31-32 at the onset..

bust one or two degrees above freezing and it's a big nothing burger

bust 2 degrees and get to 29 and no one's watching the super bowl tomorrow

MMMMM ... Nothing burgers! Have them all the time! ;)

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5 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

Talk about flirting with disaster. Meso models have us at 31-32 at the onset..

bust one or two degrees above freezing and it's a big nothing burger

bust 2 degrees and get to 29 and no one's watching the super bowl tomorrow

You will have to sit at 29 for a while to lose power.  

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I gotta tell you. Looking at the 12z Nam for the guys along the spine of the Appalachian of NC and into northwestern SC the Nam looks ominous. It looks even colder at 2m then it did at 6z. Moisture also looks a little more abundant. 

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I'm not predicting a bust this big or anything. But just showing the unpredictable nature of these events sometimes. North Georgia was forecasted to not get below 33/34 hours before this event started. It was only during nowcasting time watching dewpoints and temps did we start to realize things could get ugly. Notice how weak the wedging was with this event, (however there was a small meso-high. This weekend's event will be missing that feature).

 

https://www.weather.gov/ffc/20150216_winterstorm

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Here a post from that 2015 storm for reference....

 

  On 2/16/2015 at 12:18 PM, Lookout said:

what a huge bust by the nam on temps. gainesville is 31 over 22 with mixed precip when the nam got them to 40 this afternoon. It got me to damn near 50 and it's 37 over 14 with light sleet.

 

 

Yea, I'm thinking we might finally have a storm busting on the cold side.  I think I'm about to wetbulb down to at least 28 or 29 and no short range model had me going below 31... and actually no shortrange model had me going below freezing until around 6 oclock.

 

Also, No model had precip starting before about 3pm here and it has already started.  The radar looks absolutely awesome for my area right now....

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Not feeling this one now. Went to bed and it was 26 at around midnight, we should have went pretty low from there , but woke up to 27 degrees!? WTH? Not very cloudy out, wouldn't be suprise dot see 50 degrees today and that's no bueno

Just up the road from you and went to bed with 26 and woke up to 17.


.

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Not feeling this one now. Went to bed and it was 26 at around midnight, we should have went pretty low from there , but woke up to 27 degrees!? WTH? Not very cloudy out, wouldn't be suprise dot see 50 degrees today and that's no bueno

Sounds like you may need a new thermometer!!


.

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2 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Can somebody please post the nam snowfall map. 

So.... yea I am on my phone currently but reviewing the Nam and it’s hi-res models, doesn’t look like much of any snow, even up my way. Pingers or frz rain to start. Once again 3k Nam looks ominous.

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Just now, drfranklin said:

I have a Honda eu2000i generator - I think this will be a nuisance event - but, I am out of gas - should I make time to get gas today? (needs non-ethanol gas; I will be at a swim meet all day)

The spinx on pleasantburg has non ethanol. 

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