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Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5


WiseWeather

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FYI, the Rgem has 1 inch totals b/c it keeps those area's at 32 for longer. That doesn't mean 1 inch of freezing rain acrues. In fact, there could be 0 accural at 32. So take the accumulation maps with a grain of salt.

It appears the Rgem has absolutely nailed the 32 degree line across the area this morning, the ridiculous freezing rain totals on those outputs won't verify though b/c most of isnt freezing with temps in the 31/32 range. 

I still think GSP up to Hickory will get .25 of acrual though, if not more up towards hickory 

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11 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

FYI, the Rgem has 1 inch totals b/c it keeps those area's at 32 for longer. That doesn't mean 1 inch of freezing rain acrues. In fact, there could be 0 accural at 32. So take the accumulation maps with a grain of salt.

It appears the Rgem has absolutely nailed the 32 degree line across the area this morning, the ridiculous freezing rain totals on those outputs won't verify though b/c most of isnt freezing with temps in the 31/32 range. 

I still think GSP up to Hickory will get .25 of acrual though, if not more up towards hickory 

the RGEM had me forecasted at lower temp overnight than I what I recorded - GSP has me changing to all rain at 9am

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5 minutes ago, drfranklin said:

the RGEM had me forecasted at lower temp overnight than I what I recorded - GSP has me changing to all rain at 9am

9 or 10am temps rising to 32/33 is what the rgem has been showing as well.  Precip should be moving out around that time too.  

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3 hours ago, Buddy1987 said:

image.png.78bf8ab30e3ce2f5389b2ee503f25d75.png6Z RGEM map I forgot to post before. Still bringing the goods. Mack is still at 1''

2 more degrees and this would have verified. I thought the temps initialized wrong on the RGEM. The last run of the night had MBY at 31 while I sat at a balmy 37

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3 hours ago, GunBlade said:

Never bet on one model when every other one doesn’t agree with it.  RGEM was always alone.  The HRRR eroded the CAD way too quick but the RGEM was way too cold. 

And where is the freezing line setup?  Just north of 85.....not surprising in this setup. 

I would argue that the RGEM was right on the money, if you interpret the freezing rain map correctly.  I got close to three quarters of an inch of rain while the temperature was below freezing.  So, it correctly forecast rain during freeing temperatures for MBY.  However, a lot of that became runoff, so only about 25% of it accrued.  As grit's been arguing lately, those ZR accumulation maps need to be tempered with a proper ratio of accrual.

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5 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I would argue that the RGEM was right on the money, if you interpret the freezing rain map correctly.  I got close to three quarters of an inch of rain while the temperature was below freezing.  So, it correctly forecast rain during freeing temperatures for MBY.  However, a lot of that became runoff, so only about 25% of it accrued.  As grit's been arguing lately, those ZR accumulation maps need to be tempered with a proper ratio of accrual.

Agree I thought even yesterday RGEM was on top of it better.

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Well got up and looked outside at 6 this morning and the ground and driveway were covered with snow then sleet started and then around 8 freezing rain was coming down hard, then it all came to an end with just plain rain, then it ended around 10, kinda what they predicted, a little disappointed that it didn't over perform, I guess that dreaded warm nose got us again, maybe the next storm will have some cold air to work with but next weekend looks like all rain for four days, where is the cold air when we need it, this was a dud for sure.

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6 hours ago, Wow said:

Yep.  Still under 32 here (31.7) with the heaviest precip of the day rolling through.  Pines are drooping on the ends of the branches but nothing serious.

I was thinking it’s been a long time since we’ve had a significant just ZR event. Today had to have been the first in at least 6 years or even more.

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