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Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5


WiseWeather

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What are the odds precip moves in and locks that cold air in place for a longer time period than is being modeled (even by meso models) ? There's no doubt in my mind this thing goes over to rain at some point here in the CAD favored upstate, but when? Timing and how amp'd the low is are big time factors with this one IMO. I feel like we've seen this movie before

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1 hour ago, NEGa said:

while It’s not really a “big” storm it looks like a lot of places will see some frozen precip Saturday night into Sunday morning. I am but t surprised that there isn’t a bit more chatter about this.  Depending on temps and dew points into Saturday night we could see a mix to freezing rain - and it’s not that far out. If the hires models start picking up on this we could have an interesting Saturday night 

You can definitely tell when rdu and charlotte area arent in the mix for an event!

I think it could be a nice event at the onset for our areas.

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Just now, oconeexman said:

You can definitely tell when rdu and charlotte area arent in the mix for an event!

I think it could be a nice event at the onset for our areas.

Yep you’re right. If the 12Z 3k NAM is right, some folks in the foothills may not be watching the super bowl. 

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20 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

What are the odds precip moves in and locks that cold air in place for a longer time period than is being modeled (even by meso models) ? There's no doubt in my mind this thing goes over to rain at some point here in the CAD favored upstate, but when? Timing and how amp'd the low is are big time factors with this one IMO. I feel like we've seen this movie before

I think the 3km NAM has a good handle on it.  Snow>Sleet>Rain changeover in the mtns with light frz rain glazing SE of the mtns.

ckzRIWt.gif

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1 minute ago, oconeexman said:

You can definitely tell when rdu and charlotte area arent in the mix for an event!

I think it could be a nice event at the onset for our areas.

I know right lol. It looks decent for some wintry wx for some of us. We haven’t had a cad event to track for a while it seems.  Plus it’s on the weekend which is even better lol. Some of the models are showing .2” or so it looks like hopefully the trends will be our friend 

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15 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

^Trending colder and colder, grit.  The 12Z 3K NAM showed a couple of rounds of frozen precipitation for areas in NW NC.  An initial IP/ZR hit, a brief break, and then redevelopment of ZR over the same area.  This shows the CAD really locking in for Sunday morning.

Hickory soundings on 3km NAM for 6AM and 11AM...it shows the temp profile evolution and good rising motion for precip generation (omega values on the left hand side)

XhXmQOJ.png

jxIe0Cb.png

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This all looks kind of dicey, but I'll bet 50:1, temps won't get below freezing imby Sat night before precip gets here. This airnass isn't exceedingly cold and thick cloud cover the whole night screams temps locking at about 34/35 and ZR won't be a concern in my area! I'm just hoping to see a burst of sleet, maybe a flake!?

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23 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

This all looks kind of dicey, but I'll bet 50:1, temps won't get below freezing imby Sat night before precip gets here. This airnass isn't exceedingly cold and thick cloud cover the whole night screams temps locking at about 34/35 and ZR won't be a concern in my area! I'm just hoping to see a burst of sleet, maybe a flake!?

Precip begins in GSP 4AM to 7AM.  Your temp/dewpoints...

RGEM: 4AM 31/19, 7AM 30/27

3km NAM: 4AM 34/23, 7AM 32/30, 10AM 33/32

Reg NAM: 4AM 32/25, 7AM 32/29, 10AM 34/33

Bottom line: a light glazing is possible

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Just now, Poimen said:

The GGEM is a serious ice storm for many, but its pretty much on an island: 

zr_acc.us_ma.png

IMO it's also too far east with the significant icing in this situation. I think any significant icing would be confined to the foothills, especially the northern foothills like Wilkes and Surry and into southern VA. 

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