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Super Bowl Sunday Storm 2/4-5


WiseWeather

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2 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Seen some good wet snows at 34. Heck even 36. West of 77 and north of 40 looks good on this storm. 

Yeah your 850's are good enough barely to keep it snow so if rates are good enough you can get snow....still you guys need a east shift to get anything decent out of it and the trend has been west if anything on all the models except the CMC.....so hope for a sharper deeper trough so this thing trends SE a bit 

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1 minute ago, downeastnc said:

Yeah your 850's are good enough barely to keep it snow so if rates are good enough you can get snow....still you guys need a east shift to get anything decent out of it and the trend has been west if anything on all the models except the CMC.....so hope for a sharper deeper trough so this thing trends SE a bit 

Just cheating off Mid Atlantic forum, Euro looks better already for the snowier camps. Looks like a solid 2-5 or 3-6 front end thump for western VA. Farther up 81 is a warning event taken verbatim.

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2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

Just cheating off Mid Atlantic forum, Euro looks better already for the snowier camps. Looks like a solid 2-5 or 3-6 front end thump for western VA. Farther up 81 is a warning event taken verbatim.

But it quickly transitions to rain and washes everything away unless you are in far northern VA...

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1 minute ago, wncsnow said:

But it quickly transitions to rain and washes everything away unless you are in far northern VA...

At this point in my life and this horrid winter, if I can get 3 or 4'' out of this it is a gosh darn win. Man all year everything is squashed and now we are headed toward warm and amped can't win.

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1 minute ago, Buddy1987 said:

Just cheating off Mid Atlantic forum, Euro looks better already for the snowier camps. Looks like a solid 2-5 or 3-6 front end thump for western VA. Farther up 81 is a warning event taken verbatim.

You are in a better spot than most of the NC posters that low track needs to move SE like the ICON/CMC has it and even then the cold air supply sucks and its a stale air mass...I just wouldnt hang to much hope on this one being more than a few hrs of snow before going to rain for most folks that do actually see snow....could be good though just east of the mts in VA north were the cold hangs on longer. The good thing is it has several days to trend towards a deeper trough and maybe keep that low track more on the coast and not over central NC....

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3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said:

At this point in my life and this horrid winter, if I can get 3 or 4'' out of this it is a gosh darn win. Man all year everything is squashed and now we are headed toward warm and amped can't win.

Yea I feel bad for some folks who have missed out. The pattern the next 7 days does not look great for snow or wintry precip for much of NC/VA. I am only disappointed because I detest cold rain (not the poster :)) 

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Lets hope some folks can score Sun/Mon. No matter how you slice it everyone below 3,000 come Monday has 1 solid month left/ exactly 4 weeks till its March 5th. Yes several have and will score past March 5th from time to time but opportunities will start winding way down/almost coming to a hault by the end of the 1st week of March. So pucker up and be willing to kiss / love on any pig slop mother nature will throw your way cause the saloon is about to shut down for the season. 

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17 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GSP's afternoon discussion sounds a lot worse for wintry weather fans, mostly rain Sun after brief mix at onset, outside of mtns and rain for clipper Tuesday outside the mtns! Winter going out with a bang! SMDH 

On the other hand RAH keeps things status quo for now.

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3 hours ago, Buddy1987 said:

Just cheating off Mid Atlantic forum, Euro looks better already for the snowier camps. Looks like a solid 2-5 or 3-6 front end thump for western VA. Farther up 81 is a warning event taken verbatim.

Isn't WNC warning event also, looks to be snow the whole event to me at this point.  

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Current forecast for my area, But will definitely change one way or another!!! At this point not expecting anything, token flakes mixed in would be a bonus..............

SATURDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight.
Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 40 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Snow and rain. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of
precipitation 80 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy with a chance of snow. Rain, mainly
in the evening. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation
80 percent. 
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Looking at today's models, as well as taking Climo into account, the Superbowl Sunday threat is something that should not be taken lightly, IMHO. I think one of two things will happen with this system:

1.) The small disturbance that is progged to push through on Friday will help slow down the HP that is funneling through. This will serve as a hybrid type of blocking, which will aid with keeping the HP from exiting stage right. The cold air will be able to hang around, which will alter the Precipitation type, which will be MORE of a MIXED BAG of ip/sn, with periods of rain mixed in. The CAD will be sorely underestimated by the models. I personally feel that when all is said and done, the surface temps will end up SIGNIFICANTLY colder than progged.

               ~OR~

2.) In-situ damning will take place, with the same end result, but possibly MORE rain than mix of ip/SN, because of kess colder air to work with. The models have been keying on this moreso than # 1. I feel the trends will turn tonight or by 12z runs tomorrow, which will show more deeper/colder solutions.

NOTE # 1:

I have included a shot of the 18z GFS. Notice the CAD showing up more pronounced than in previous, recent runs?? This will only deepen as we get closer to "go time".

NOTE # 2:

The OVERALL trend this year has been for winter threats to end up with a more deeper, colder solution, as we edge closer to the "go time". The Operational Models have been horrible with keying in on this, IN THIS TIMEFRAME WE ARE IN NOW. Watch for more changes tonight and especially tomorrow. It seems a blend of the ICON/Canadian has been the winner in the past Storms. No? 

Please flame away. I am trying to put my 2 pennies on this. Thanks and let's hope we can still have a FAB FEB, MACK BUFFET STYLE. LMAO!

20180131_175057.jpg

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29 minutes ago, Rankin5150 said:

Looking at today's models, as well as taking Climo into account, the Superbowl Sunday threat is something that should not be taken lightly, IMHO. I think one of two things will happen with this system:

1.) The small disturbance that is progged to push through on Friday will help slow down the HP that is funneling through. This will serve as a hybrid type of blocking, which will aid with keeping the HP from exiting stage right. The cold air will be able to hang around, which will alter the Precipitation type, which will be MORE of a MIXED BAG of ip/sn, with periods of rain mixed in. The CAD will be sorely underestimated by the models. I personally feel that when all is said and done, the surface temps will end up SIGNIFICANTLY colder than progged.

               ~OR~

2.) In-situ damning will take place, with the same end result, but possibly MORE rain than mix of ip/SN, because of kess colder air to work with. The models have been keying on this moreso than # 1. I feel the trends will turn tonight or by 12z runs tomorrow, which will show more deeper/colder solutions.

NOTE # 1:

I have included a shot of the 18z GFS. Notice the CAD showing up more pronounced than in previous, recent runs?? This will only deepen as we get closer to "go time".

NOTE # 2:

The OVERALL trend this year has been for winter threats to end up with a more deeper, colder solution, as we edge closer to the "go time". The Operational Models have been horrible with keying in on this, IN THIS TIMEFRAME WE ARE IN NOW. Watch for more changes tonight and especially tomorrow. It seems a blend of the ICON/Canadian has been the winner in the past Storms. No? 

Please flame away. I am trying to put my 2 pennies on this. Thanks and let's hope we can still have a FAB FEB, MACK BUFFET STYLE. LMAO!

20180131_175057.jpg

Nice post, and a high in that position could work! CMC might not be off its rocker!?

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27 minutes ago, BIG FROSTY said:

00z GFS is warmer again! Looks like we can stick a fork in this one, And punt till at least Mid Month............... :(

 

1 minute ago, BIG FROSTY said:

GEM has a pretty stout wedge look with no HP? 

It's because it tracks sfc lp futher south and east. Waa doesn't cause an inferno up at 5000 ft

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1 minute ago, NCSNOW said:

Cmc refuses to waiver. To early to fork this one frosty. I'd wait, espeacilly from you up into northern mtns. Gfs was even a tick colder at 850, still warm up there. Until canadian gives hang tight. Been consistent for 6 + runs now.

Yeah, you're right when the 12z Euro give me 2-3 inches, see which way it leans tonight, towards GFS or the CMC? 

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SATURDAY NIGHT...Cloudy. A chance of snow after midnight. Not as
cool with lows in the upper 20s. Chance of snow 50 percent. 
.SUNDAY...Snow in the morning. Rain. Moderate snow accumulation.
Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent. 
.SUNDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Rain likely in the evening. Lows
in the lower 30s. Chance of rain 70 percent. 

 

 Blacksburg says still a chance here?

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