February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Some ratters in there but then there is some Gold Medal winners

I think it will be somewhere in between....not epic, but we should cash in nonetheless....heightened risk of a big event imo.

[Damage In Tolland]

Noyes has more 50's this weekend for BOS

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Noyes has more 50's this weekend for BOS

Dandy day for Saturday. 

[MJO812]

4 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think it will be somewhere in between....not epic, but we should cash in nonetheless....heightened risk of a big event imo.

I agree

Mecs possible

[jbenedet]

40 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dandy day for Saturday. 

Looks like backdoor to me down to the pike.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Looks like backdoor to me down to the pike.

Maybe aftn temps drop right at the coast, but that's a mild look to me. Obviously not like today, but AN.

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Maybe aftn temps drop right at the coast, but that's a mild look to me. Obviously not like today, but AN.

Yea I dunno I’d take the under 40 for BOS on Saturday. Atmosphere is warm but BL is a different story with that high anchored in southern Quebec. GEFS was even showing a strong CAD signal which is pretty telling considering how GFS typically can’t see CAD inside 24 hrs.

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I dunno I’d take the under 40 for BOS on Saturday. Atmosphere is warm but BL is a different story with that high anchored in southern Quebec. GEFS was even showing a strong CAD signal which is pretty telling considering how GFS typically can’t see CAD inside 24 hrs.

40? Oh I'll take way over. 

[qg_omega]

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I dunno I’d take the under 40 for BOS on Saturday. Atmosphere is warm but BL is a different story with that high anchored in southern Quebec. GEFS was even showing a strong CAD signal which is pretty telling considering how GFS typically can’t see CAD inside 24 hrs.

under 40? Its going to be mid 50s easily 

[dendrite]

Sat looks warm

[weathafella]

Today we’re going to the moon!

[jbenedet]

34 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

under 40? Its going to be mid 50s easily 

Where?

20 degrees AN? Feeling THAT confident?

[jbenedet]

It is late February, and that means peak winter climo; just sayin'. 

Btw, my back yard barely broke 50 yesterday and that was with a much better WAA setup than Saturday.

[dendrite]

Sun, N-NW flow, and torchy 850s. I'll take the under on Sunday though.

[jbenedet]

1 minute ago, dendrite said:

Sun, N-NW flow, and torchy 850s. I'll take the under on Sunday though.

That flow flips Northeast in the afternoon; could easily come in earlier than current guidance as well.

Plus fighting clouds all day...

Agree with Sunday.

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

That flow flips Northeast in the afternoon; could easily come in earlier than current guidance as well.

Plus fighting clouds all day...

Agree with Sunday.

Damage may be done before any possible BD or seabreeze.

[jbenedet]

3 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Damage may be done before any possible BD or seabreeze.

You're counting on a lot from a late February sun. Cold surfaces, cold ocean - way may even have snow/ice otg come Saturday...

[dendrite]

I’ll stick to the DSD torch

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’ll stick to the DSD torch

Yep.

[MJO812]

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 42m42 minutes ago

More

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

[Typhoon Tip]

Saturday really depends on the sun ...  The train wreck frontal logic that crumbles through the region from Friday to overnight does exit with somewhat of a more organized laminar flow and weak CAA on the backside during Saturday, but the problem is the llv RH ... is it all enough to scour out the ceilings and get the sun shining. 

850s are still mild relative to this time of year, and with WNW to NW drift in the air, that's typically an over achiever on temperature from mid February on... provided the sun is shining proficiently enough.  I could see [conceptually...] tomorrows cold regression and Friday's 2ndary stuff as all being a big glorified BD event that usually happens around here in the spring...  Rarely would we get 4 days of unadulterated +10 without some sort of fly in the ointment... this interruption tomorrow ... it's really a dragonfly.  

There may in fact be another warm frontal penetration early next week as the previous -NAO diving system appeal is gone now, and we are left with yet another Lakes cutter... Maybe toward the end of next week we can finally see if this things been a lie or not...  It shouldn't prove that way, with the -AO and the stuff ..but that's another discussion.  Anyway, until that time, it's really same pattern we been in for the past 6 weeks playing out, we just happened to be passing through a ridgy variation this week... I recall, cleary, that about 2.5 weeks ago we started seeing inside/outside sliders rollin'/cutting down the West Coast, and it was probably a matter of time before the SE monster roared.

[WinterWolf]

9 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 42m42 minutes ago

More

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

Too much of a good thing?????   Hopefully we can cash in on something and not have things be suppressed if the above plays out??

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Too much of a good thing?????   Hopefully we can cash in on something and not have things be suppressed if the above plays out??

there's so many moving part to that ... it could also be positioned (the blocking features...) west, neutral, or east as biases, and either one can effect on our circulation make-up differently, ...also, differently relative to the magnitude of the NAO blocking its self.  There's really no one size fits all NAO.

It's part and parcel in why I cringe when I read blanket optimism because of -NAO's whether here or elsewhere - and I've opined why in the past the NAO is overrated in general. Which, I still believe so ... but, that does not mean the NAO doesn't contribute to huge events, either, just that there's a bit of a culture to slam dunk assume cold/snow trophies there.   

[dryslot]

20 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Too much of a good thing?????   Hopefully we can cash in on something and not have things be suppressed if the above plays out??

That's not a good thing.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

31 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 42m42 minutes ago

More

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

Your blocking calls since 2011 are finally coming, great work.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

That's not a good thing.

Here's the thing, that tweet  is a moment in time, blocking gets super strong then relaxes , as it relaxes we get better PNA and some STJ. I like the look myself. That is how NAO is beneficial, slow it down

[codfishsnowman]

36 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Too much of a good thing?????   Hopefully we can cash in on something and not have things be suppressed if the above plays out??

sounds like the day after tomorrow...that guy is so dramatic

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 hour ago, Snow88 said:

Michael Ventrice‏Verified account @MJVentrice 42m42 minutes ago

More

According to our definition of the NAO, models are calling for the all-time strongest -NAO value observed since our archive (beginning in 1980). The record low value since 1980 is from February 2006 (-2.77sigma). We are seeing models call for -3sigma during late February 2018.

Not surprised at all.

[Typhoon Tip]

To anyone that may want/need learning in larger scale synoptic mechanisms...  This 12z operational GFS is a wonder free introduction course work.  

Toggle through the charts for the time period of 90 hours through 120 ... take note of the Great Lakes cutter low's full evolution up and through the area...  

Next ... toggle through the charts from ~ 200 through 240 hours, and take note of the difference in total behavior, over the same region of the country.

The latter is the effects of the -NAO blocking ...  the former is the effects of limited/no -NAO 

[tamarack]

1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Too much of a good thing?????   Hopefully we can cash in on something and not have things be suppressed if the above plays out??

This is February #126 at the nearby long-term co-op, and none have had less snow than the 1.1" recorded in 2006.  (And March 2006 had only 3.5".)  Would not appreciate a repeat.