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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Isotherm said:

 

How? December verified - colder/snowier than normal in the Eastern US. January finished near normal in the Mid-west and Northeast after a very cold first half, so this was slightly cooler than my forecast. My first window for a large storm in the Northeast verified (late Dec/beginning of Jan). The NAO has been positive this winter as I expected, with a near neutral/slightly negative AO. Unless, you've been reading different forecast ideas, I think things have gone fairly well to date. We'll see where we are 1.5 months from now. But your assertion is not correct.

The lack of objectivity that I've seen on various boards this winter has reached an all-time high.

I am still high on the 7 inches no one would get before Feb 10th my bad. IDK 

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40/70 Benchmark

40/70 Benchmark

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I am still high on the 7 inches no one would get before Feb 10th my bad. IDK 

Jesus, you always do that....steal one moderate event during a $hit pattern at the climo peak of winter, and its supposed to invalidate every assertion made about said pattern.

The pattern was supposed to stink in late Jan/early Feb, and it has stunk and stinks. It was also made clear that some spots could still scrore because its the dead of winter.

 

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Jesus, you always do that....steal one moderate event during a $hit pattern at the climo peak of winter, and its supposed to invalidate every assertion made about said pattern.

The pattern was supposed to stink in late Jan/early Feb, and it has stunk and stinks. It was also made clear that some spots could still scrore because its the dead of winter.

 

 he put out that statement I didn't and you didnt. You are so defensive about your seasonal call, lol. 

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nzucker

nzucker

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Ginx snewx said:

Isotherm is having a very very rough year

Not really...he nailed the transition to warm following the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone and 1/6-7 arctic outbreak. He had a colder than normal December and a slightly warmer than normal January, which was off by only a few days. We were -16 after the first week of January and finished the month within a degree of normal. We've seen only 1.5" of snow here since 1/4. His idea of a change to a pattern that was warmer than normal and unfavorable for snow on the coast was largely correct. The second half of January was a torch for sure. 

His ideas regarding February are likely to be largely correct as well. The -EPO will keep the cold air supply fresh, but the PNA is displaced westward and the Atlantic is awful. You can see on the GFS that the placement of the vortex is MUCH too far north for our area, over Baffin Island when we'd want it into Hudson Bay (and this has been the main adjustment in ensemble modeling the last 2 days, keeping the vortex farther north with high heights in the fast flow to the south)...that's a ++NAO:

vortexplacement.thumb.gif.9ba9c2bba55f1a160c7e7343278962a7.gif

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, nzucker said:

Not really...he nailed the transition to warm following the 1/4 Bomb Cyclone and 1/6-7 arctic outbreak. He had a colder than normal December and a slightly warmer than normal January, which was off by only a few days. We were -16 after the first week of January and finished the month within a degree of normal. We've seen only 1.5" of snow here since 1/4. His idea of a change to a pattern that was warmer than normal and unfavorable for snow on the coast was largely correct. The second half of January was a torch for sure. 

His ideas regarding February are likely to be largely correct as well. The -EPO will keep the cold air supply fresh, but the PNA is displaced westward and the Atlantic is awful. You can see on the GFS that the placement of the vortex is MUCH too far north for our area, over Baffin Island when we'd want it into Hudson Bay (and this has been the main adjustment in ensemble modeling the last 2 days, keeping the vortex farther north with high heights in the fast flow to the south)...that's a ++NAO:

vortexplacement.thumb.gif.9ba9c2bba55f1a160c7e7343278962a7.gif

You guys have a different climo  good luck 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted

Meh. Next week is a long ways out. Not worrying about it yet. Def could end up more cutterish...but that's a risk in this pattern. 

Sun/Mon is def not trending the right direction. But there is still even time on that on to end up a bit more CADish...esp for interior folks. The coast is probably skunked. 

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
Posted
Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Meh. Next week is a long ways out. Not worrying about it yet. Def could end up more cutterish...but that's a risk in this pattern. 

Sun/Mon is def not trending the right direction. But there is still even time on that on to end up a bit more CADish...esp for interior folks. The coast is probably skunked. 

In looking at stuff..there are some models that develop a secondary off of NJ.. should that happen any mix flips back to snow. We'll see how it shakes out

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

In looking at stuff..there are some models that develop a secondary off of NJ.. should that happen any mix flips back to snow. We'll see how it shakes out

I think the better hope for Sunday/Monday is that we just end up more CADish. That would help the interior more than the coast...but I'm not sure we get a full blown coastal secondary. It's kind of a diffuse system. But more CAD would turn it into mostly a WAA snow event. 

As for next week around Wednesday. That one trended ugly overnight but we all know the caveats on a 6 day forecast. It seems like cutterish systems around day 6 this year have generally been too amped on guidance. Hopefully that is the case this time. We have a good antecedent airmass for that one so there is good potential if we can avoid a track through BGM. 

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snowgeek

snowgeek

Posted
Posted
6z GFS looks real nice over the next 7 days too.  That's a 1-2 feet type deal over the 7 day period, especially throwing in the snow showers/squalls stuff.
Threaded the needle that run.
 

Ski areas up north will definitely do better than areas to the south, but some of the model runs showing rain to Canada for the Wed event are disconcerting. Hopefully they trend colder today. Pump up that -EPO.


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