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Baroclinic Zone

February is upon us - pattern change is in order

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2 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

You can’t use the excuse that the GFS is always to amped. This one very well could be amped and West with +NAO and weakly negative AO.

Ha ha... when on goodness sands over the isles of angels was THAT ever the case  -

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12 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha... when on goodness sands over the isles of angels was THAT ever the case  -

Well some people have said the GFS is to amped today with the Monday storm.

Im not saying just specially the GFS but some people like the use the, “it’s to amped excuse” regardless of what model it is. Most of the time a modeled system ends up being too amped, but sometimes it’s not.

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6 minutes ago, Powderboy413 said:

Well some people have said GFS is to amped today with the Monday storm

gotcha... heh.   

was thinking you meant on-going bias of something.   yeah, I agree ...there's ample support from multiple guidance sourcing/ensembles.   

hey guys, if the flow wasn't so compressed I'd say the 96 hour Euro was setting stage for something special ... but with that flow so fast and smashed the lead s/w ridging doesn't room to blossom and that might keep that whole look moving right along

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

Euro is pretty mild too for SNE. Maybe NW areas or nrn orh are more on the snowy side,  but pretty mild through 925. Does seem to end briefly as snow?

It's cooler compared to 0z but looks similiar to the ukie.

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Just now, Snow88 said:

It's cooler compared to 0z but looks similiar to the ukie.

That’s my gripe with this. There isn’t a whole lot of room. It’s eiher too amped or shunted out to sea. At least on the euro, it’s not the best wintry pattern. Maybe it improves after next week and still some

time for Monday. 

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5 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

So much for the pattern changing, the flow is still too fast which is what we've been dealing with all season. 

oyyyye

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7 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

So much for the pattern changing, the flow is still too fast which is what we've been dealing with all season. 

Enjoy your blue bomb monday.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, but needs to amplify enough to bring the moisture.

Its walking a fine line because it will also bring the warmth with it.

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12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

True, but needs to amplify enough to bring the moisture.

Despite a weak system, I'm thinking this is a situation where we get a decent warm conveyor to tap the Gulf, and moisture feed is pumped right into our backyard. Easier to conceptualize if look at it more as a frontal wave, rather than a developing mid latitude cyclone....

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12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

boy that Euro run is as marginal as it gets temp wise , we blue bomb

Eps also is cooler than 0z

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20 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

boy that Euro run is as marginal as it gets temp wise , we blue bomb

oh damn the weather.us site and Maues site are way different its  torchy on weather.us, I mean like 6 degrees warmer. Maues site has 33 34 degree surface and 0/1 850, weather.us has +7 925 42 degrees surface. IDK why

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2 hours ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

 Oh' don't worry, I will be a miserable poster if I don't have a new base of snow soon.   We are close to seeing the 10 or so posters that live from Runnaway to Snowgeek to me start snapping.

 I won't include MPM or Codfish  because they have probably already snapped.

I snapped years ago...I just enjoy washing down the milltown and xanax with a strong bit of Kettle One when things are bleak these days

  • Haha 1

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 I thought it was mild. Especially 925 and 850. It doesn’t matter if the low passes southeast of the Cape when it’s a complete furnace aloft. Maybe it means more ice or mixed precip in the interior. 

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

oh damn the weather.us site and Maues site are way different its  torchy on weather.us, I mean like 6 degrees warmer. Maues site has 33 34 degree surface and 0/1 850, weather.us has +7 925 42 degrees surface. IDK why

ah 3 hr increments, oh that does suck lol. EPS looks like the Op congrats MPMers

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