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Baroclinic Zone

February is upon us - pattern change is in order

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Ray, you’ve been honorable about analysis and what went wrong,  But I seem to recall you thInking the Big EPO ridge would eventually come back.  All guidance had this and you may have wanted to delay it but the guidance completed failed.  You did suggest nao help and that looks like it may come true but the EPO part has been a dud.

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51 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Ray, you’ve been honorable about analysis and what went wrong,  But I seem to recall you thInking the Big EPO ridge would eventually come back.  All guidance had this and you may have wanted to delay it but the guidance completed failed.  You did suggest nao help and that looks like it may come true but the EPO part has been a dud.

So far, yea...I wasn't avoiding anything...I do the verification in the spring.

I did predict a slightly positive D-M EPO in the mean, though.

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2 hours ago, backedgeapproaching said:

Looks like 40.5".   35" from synoptic and 5" Upslope.  Terrain enhanced both ways

Considerable terrain enhancement during the main storm occurred in the higher elevations of Berkshire and Bennington counties to push snow totals at our two high elevation WxNet 6 spotters sites on top of Woodford, MT, VT in Bennington County to 35.0" and to 40.5" on top of the mountain in Savoy, MA, Berkshire County, both 2000' + elevation locations. In Woodford, approximately 25" of snow fell from the main storm, with approximately 35" of snow @ Savoy, MA. The additional accumulations at these locations came from upslope induced snowfall which continued well into Wednesday night and early Thursday morning the 13th, after the main storm had moved east.

 

 

I'm coming up on my 10-year anniversary at the Pit.  The first couple years were really pretty exciting.  It's really been relatively benign the last several years though.  Rocktober 2011 was fantastic.  

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1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

There is a "sneaky" southern streamer next weekend that we could keep track of.

Just so you can all see what I am alluding to.  Yes, these are the OP runs, but all 3 show what I am talking about in that time period (next weekend)ecmwf_z500_mslp_namer_9.thumb.png.f5dbe743c64cd6339d3275c6d6c861d0.png

gem_z500_mslp_namer_37.thumb.png.e81dcb243f416ef56a04bd2fdbf646bf.png

gfs_z500_mslp_namer_37.thumb.png.3b9923b43cb50fc27e51ca0750940b71.png

 

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12 hours ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Man, this feels like the week before the blizzard, when everyone had their respective minds made up-

Next 7 days are ugly

Maybe we turn the corner after that

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7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

How the bones feeling after today?   Looked like a bluebird day.

Great only one minor digger. Was partly sunny then light snow

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3 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Lol “turn the corner” on 2/18.....come on man.....

Ice waterfalls were just beautiful on the Mass Pike,  deep deep winter just to your North. Turn the corner means on the 4 warm days coming up this week. Have a great night Deb

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7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Ice waterfalls were just beautiful on the Mass Pike,  deep deep winter just to your North. Turn the corner means on the 4 warm days coming up this week. Have a great night Deb

Ya and they were detaching and crumbling to the ground hopelessly....that’s it dude.....when those ice crumbles melt that’s it.....you know it.....we all do...it’s ovah...

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25 minutes ago, ice1972 said:

Ya and they were detaching and crumbling to the ground hopelessly....that’s it dude.....when those ice crumbles melt that’s it.....you know it.....we all do...it’s ovah...

Night night Deb

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Night night Deb

Is there a bet we could legit carry out here?  Like you cover first round at your bar of choice if I get a 12”+ event here in WEHA.....if not I cover yours....in person.....CT only.....Bet?

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I go back n forth. I know climo says its not over until early April for a siggy event... but the wounded weenie in me says our chances are very very slim for a sustained 2-3 week stretch of good to great chances.  

I’d take Ice’s bet but he’s a heavy drinker...and I don’t want to encourage addictive behaviors.

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1 hour ago, ice1972 said:

Is there a bet we could legit carry out here?  Like you cover first round at your bar of choice if I get a 12”+ event here in WEHA.....if not I cover yours....in person.....CT only.....Bet?

You are unhinged.

Step away from the laptop...spend some time with family....a family of therapists.

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4 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

I go back n forth. I know climo says its not over until early April for a siggy event... but the wounded weenie in me says our chances are very very slim for a sustained 2-3 week stretch of good to great chances.  

I’d take Ice’s bet but he’s a heavy drinker...and I don’t want to encourage addictive behaviors.

And yet here we are hitting F5 for the next panel of the 18z GFS.

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