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Baroclinic Zone

February is upon us - pattern change is in order

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Would really make us western mass folks happy, as I’m only sitting with 25 inches on the season so far imby.


I’m at 25” too, about 9” below normal. No WSW’s yet. 5.5” was biggest event. Western folks need some love and the ski areas need it bad. It’s a loose granular icy mess on the hills. Gotta get the woods back in shape for tree skiing. Chances are if we win, the ski areas win. I like the trend last night that shifted the trough axis a bit west. Heck, I’d even take rain if it meant the mountains getting pounded. Of course I’d prefer a region wide pasting, but if we can’t all win, then bring it west.


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4 minutes ago, snowgeek said:

 


I’m at 25” too, about 9” below normal. No WSW’s yet. 5.5” was biggest event. Western folks need some love and the ski areas need it bad. It’s a loose granular icy mess on the hills. Gotta get the woods back in shape for tree skiing. Chances are if we win, the ski areas win. I like the trend last night that shifted the trough axis a bit west. Heck, I’d even take rain if it meant the mountains getting pounded. Of course I’d prefer a region wide pasting, but if we can’t all win, then bring it west.

 

Agreed. I hope upcoming pattern favors folk out west. I will gladly take warm pattern here.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

The euro suite of guidance shows why I’m not exactly thrilled yet with this so called pattern change. It’s just not quite ideal yet verbatim. 

With the -EPO , the low should shift east .

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1 minute ago, Snow88 said:

With the -EPO , the low should shift east .

It's not that. The ridge is getting beat down by some s/w energy rounding the N Pole. It's bizarre, but the GFS has it now. Of course the GFS is also the coldest as usual. Something to watch. 

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Scooter is humble but I'm taking notice over his relative bearishness on the upcoming pattern. He nailed the mid level potential with this last event and except for will very few of his peers were paying attention to this component. There are lots of guys in weather who couldn't tell you the intricacies of the mid levels if it came up and bit them in the fanny.

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Just now, 25thamendmentfan said:

Scooter is humble but I'm taking notice over his relative bearishness on the upcoming pattern. He nailed the mid level potential with this last event and except for will very few of his peers were paying attention to this component. There are lots of guys in weather who couldn't tell you the intricacies of the mid levels if it came up and bit them in the fanny.

Thanks, but I was too bearish as a whole with that. Besides, Will and others also spoke about it tremendously. It was just strange that the output did not reflect this.

 

Anyways, all I am saying is to keep an eye out. I don't see this as a great pattern change as of now, but I mean the details that regard snow are even much more difficult to predict. You can easily get events to sneak in with something not so ideal. Or perhaps the GFS is closer to being correct. For anyone following H5 anomalies, loop the EPS watch that evolution. So weird.

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5 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whatever happens Sunday looks snowy with light stuff. The Monday storm seems like it couid be a paster 

Or a rainer. Basically anything goes.

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1 hour ago, snowgeek said:

 


I’m at 25” too, about 9” below normal. No WSW’s yet. 5.5” was biggest event. Western folks need some love and the ski areas need it bad. It’s a loose granular icy mess on the hills. Gotta get the woods back in shape for tree skiing. Chances are if we win, the ski areas win. I like the trend last night that shifted the trough axis a bit west. Heck, I’d even take rain if it meant the mountains getting pounded. Of course I’d prefer a region wide pasting, but if we can’t all win, then bring it west.


.

 

Got a chance to look a little closer.  Looks like Monday storm tracks further NW because it's a stronger shortwave that digs a little more.  All options are on the table.  

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21 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

I know, off topic, but anyone catch the blood moon this morning?  First thing I saw when I rolled out of bed, thought I was still dreaming!

 

 

4A4CE5D6-6D89-4C2D-A8B7-E5DA49856091.jpeg

nice shot what time was that? 730-8am?

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1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Whatever happens Sunday looks snowy with light stuff. The Monday storm seems like it couid be a paster 

Monday also looks like it could be a nice rain storm too for a good chunk of SNE if going by some of the guidance....   I'm not ready to go there just yet, but that is a distinct possibility at this stage of the game.  Might want to just take that as some food for thought...and not try and fool ones self too much?  Hoping for the snowier outlook obviously.

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There are two systems on the docket through next week the way I see things:  Monday;  Friday. 

I'd almost be willing to bet that the Monday one becomes more dominant moving forward, and the one for next Friday begins to attenuate ... in total, much in the same way that this last system became more significant, while this Friday's fun is ever appearing more and more so to be just an aggressive frontal passage. 

The only aspect stopping me from that ...  technically we are amid a pattern change. That asserts changes in both timing and frequencies should be afoot. I'm not sure the model depictions over the next 8 to 10 days are completely coherent to those changes.   Experience for/in such times mandates caution.

Namely, the PNA is in question.  Both agencies show rising PNA numbers. The CDC backed off the PNA last night, however, and opted to return more to a stronger -EPO type/dominant signal ... That's discontinuous over the previous three or four days however, so I wonder....  The CPC however ( which uses the geopotential anomaly distribution for it's assessment of index values) has a more coherent +PNA mode ending D9.  Overall, the average in getting there should be construed as a pattern change.   

In stable patterns ... timing and events tend to repeat. 

The MJO's constructive wave interference is also a bit of a wild card. It's still very robust in Phase 6 and is progged by multiple modeled base-lines to charge into 7 as a potent and clear signal.  The longer termed correlation on temp and moisture anomalies is negative(positive) respectively over the Lakes/OV/MA regions heading deeper into 7 anyway, so having a powerful wave mechanical input/tropical forcing working up under a -WPO/-EPO /AA Pacific arc ... interesting to put it softly.  EDIT... crap, it's Phase 8 where the correlations go stormier... sorry.  Not 7! ... NCEP seems to think it is constructively interfering right now, which is odd then.  

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Kind of a screwy evolution on the the 12z GGEM with those dual lows but it would be a big hit for the interior on Monday away from the SE coast for snow post SB.

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2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Kind of a screwy evolution on the the 12z GGEM with those dual lows but it would be a big hit for the interior on Monday away from the SE coast for snow post SB.

That would work here, but the GFS looking ugly it seems.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

That would work here, but the GFS looking ugly it seems.

Yes it would work, That's a hugger on the GFS but a paste bomb inland.

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Just now, HIPPYVALLEY said:

That would be a crush for me, MPM and Lurker.   Gas up the genny paste maker verbatim. 

That was the same here, But i would be riding the line.

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