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Baroclinic Zone

February is upon us - pattern change is in order

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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

Lock it up, pretty sure the Euro gives me zero....

Still have 3 days to buy a canoe but 0z eps members hinted at the most likely solution....only 1 rogue had a good hit for us. we cant overcome a crap airmass, for now. 

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18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Still have 3 days to buy a canoe but 0z eps members hinted at the most likely solution....only 1 rogue had a good hit for us. we cant overcome a crap airmass, for now. 

This being my 4th winter here now, I have realizes that in these marginal situations, it either never switches over to snow or when it does it is always too late. So hopefully I am wrong but, I have a feeling how this story is going to end. I have rivers running through my yard now, I can't foresee snow accumulating at 33 degrees after 2-4 inches of rain on top of what we already have. Probably have a bigger problem with trees uprooting...

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

I think this is the warmest runs we’ll see. The teleconnections —and guidance in general—points to a nuke. Going forward we should see the surface temps respond favorably to much deeper solutions.

I’m optimistic. 

Dont forget the best snowstorms are typically the ones where you’re riding the (ptype) line.

Yes. Go big or go home

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8 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Spanks - However, -4C 850 and -1C 925 with N winds should yield snow... yet the algorithm shows rain. So maybe we arent that far off. 

With good rates that’s snow.  With crappy rates wh cares?

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9 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Spanks - However, -4C 850 and -1C 925 with N winds should yield snow... yet the algorithm shows rain. So maybe we arent that far off. 

Ignore the algorithms right now. 

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Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Any chance us coasties are close enough to some snow?

oh sure ...  I was kidding about 70 btw - yankin' chains there.

But, it depends what you mean by 'coast'?

Plymouth ...mmm probably would have to wait until the storm's winds back a bit more N ... Up toward coastal NH, a NE wind is really paralleling the coast. 

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11 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

I just fainted when I looked at the Canadian. 

The euro gives you a lot more snow though.   I usually fart when I see the Canadian.

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

oh sure ...  I was kidding about 70 btw - yankin' chains there.

But, it depends what you mean by 'coast'?

Plymouth ...mmm probably would have to wait until the storm's winds back a bit more N ... Up toward coastal NH, a NE wind is really paralleling the coast. 

I am on the CT coast. Probably means we have a better chance in the day 10 storm

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12 minutes ago, weathafella said:

The euro gives you a lot more snow though.   I usually fart when I see the Canadian.

This storm's potential is through the ceiling. High impact is nearly a lock right now IMO. Will would tell me it's too early for that. But it's more than likely.

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6 minutes ago, sbos_wx said:

This storm's potential is through the ceiling. High impact is nearly a lock right now IMO. Will would tell me it's too early for that. But it's more than likely.

Agree. And my hunch is this is the one.  If it flubs, wait till next year.

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Just now, sbos_wx said:

The euro ensembles trended way north and more amped. It's a bomb.

Jay, we have a storm thread where most of the posts for 3/1-4 are going.

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19 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

I am on the CT coast. Probably means we have a better chance in the day 10 storm

We could get stiffy N winds quickly though while se ct experiences the se/e flow longer. I kind of have the Oct 11 premonition. 

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2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

We could get stiffy N winds quickly though while se ct experiences the se/e flow longer. I kind of have the Oct 11 premonition. 

That would be awesome!

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52 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Spanks - However, -4C 850 and -1C 925 with N winds should yield snow... yet the algorithm shows rain. So maybe we arent that far off. 

Good point, I will give it until Tuesday...It would be nice to see a switch to heavy snow Friday morning. I am ready for spring, but the snow lover in me still wants snow! Even though I need to drive around in it with a minivan starting Wednesday, ugghhh.....

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19 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Next 4 days look great. Soak in the warmth before Friday.

Cut some brush before the ticks explode, look for the early bulbs starting to come up, give the chickens some shades, dream a little....

image.jpeg.e3087b0f021e15d209d5a80b5bac2eeb.jpeg

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2 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

starting to think we put winter to bed after maybe a storm next week.  At this point, I'm good with that.  Bring an early spring!

Winter has been over since January 10th.

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