February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[dryslot]

Looking at the 12z Ukie, Looks like it brought the primary pretty far to the NE into Eastern NY.

[Baroclinic Zone]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Despite the pretty TT colors many are looking at, the CMC was really tasty synoptically. That is something we can work with, even if it starts out wet.

agreed

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Jerry's NAVGEM leaves us with a nice day. 

Oh believe me ... the secret deviant Schadenfreudean in me privately covets the clean whiff after 70 pages of devotion and people arguing their "storm" scenarios from a perspective of assumption ... if not entitlement. 

Alas, I don't think that will be the case here... just being sardonic -

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Oh believe me ... the secret deviant Schadenfreudean in me privately covets the clean whiff after 70 pages of devotion and people arguing their "storm" scenarios from a perspective of assumption ... if not entitlement. 

Alas, I don't think that will be the case here... just being sardonic -

Evil Tippy.

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looking at the 12z Ukie, Looks like it brought the primary pretty far to the NE into Eastern NY.

And then sags south through hr 144. That would probably be a massive QPF event if so.

[weathafella]

22 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I said Feb would have some balmy days, and the next storm window would open up in early March.....I'm not sure what more you want. Daily departures from November??

When I miss, I'm pretty honest about it.

I think your forecast for the winter was very good to excellent so far and even if March craps out you have to think about bad luck given the nao.   But I don’t think anyone could have predicted the level of touchiness during the last half of February.

[CoastalWx]

I know Ryan is aware and it's not as "sexy" as snow, but tides are very high. Those stalled or retro depictions would be really...really bad on the coast. Unlike Jan 4, you would have much higher wave action I think.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

And then sags south through hr 144. That would probably be a massive QPF event if so.

Brick wall affect.

[Baroclinic Zone]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looking at the 12z Ukie, Looks like it brought the primary pretty far to the NE into Eastern NY.

thats a torch

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

thats a torch

Euro may be a similar track, Going to be pretty amped this run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think your forecast for the winter was very good to excellent so far and even if March craps out you have to think about bad luck given the nao.   But I don’t think anyone could have predicted the level of touchiness during the last half of February.

Well, the problem there is subjectivity....my fault because I don't mention numerical departures. Will address that next year, but sorry for OT. This thread is for the threat, not my outlook.

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Well, the problem there is subjectivity....my fault because I don't mention numerical departures. Will address that next year, but sorry for OT. This thread is for the threat, not my outlook.

Isn’t this the general guidance thread?

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Isn’t this the general guidance thread?

Model thread.  Anyway, don't want to make it about me. Will make a verification thread this spring.

[Damage In Tolland]

5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

thats a torch

Not really no

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Isn’t this the general guidance thread?

Tip started a separate thread  that everyone is ignoring.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Did the unkmet erode the block faster....why does the primary get so far ne?

[ORH_wxman]

47 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Not speaking for Will and ...probably petty distinctions here, but I suspect by polar he just means intermediate air ... which Canadian probably suffices.

But, anyway... what I am seeing across the last three days worth of cycles is that we have rotted air in the lower troposphere over the whole region as these mid-llv mechanics operate over head. The models don't have to be wrong about that, per se... but, seeing as the entire surface PP shows the ballast + is N of the area, that "to me" is a red flag. Thicknesses are around 534 from upstate NY to middle Main or even S of that axis a little bit... and north of that axis, there is higher surface pressure anchored by the arrive influences of a blocky -NAO and so forth.  That air is getting entangled in a deepening circulation .. I dunno. I don't buy these warm solutions combining that factor with dynamics at this time of year. 

Yeah when I say polar, I mean just your sort of stale Canadian airmass. When I mean much colder, I'll usually call it an Arctic high and not polar. 

The polar airmass should be cold enough as long as the Synoptics cooperate...obviously that is still a big if. 

[weathafella]

Euro goes heavy rain to blue bomb.   Big solution!

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Euro goes heavy rain to blue bomb.   Big solution!

Yes please, That's a blue bomb to fluff bomb.

[Damage In Tolland]

Euro would collapse some Condos and Destroy some decks 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know Ryan is aware and it's not as "sexy" as snow, but tides are very high. Those stalled or retro depictions would be really...really bad on the coast. Unlike Jan 4, you would have much higher wave action I think.

Plus ... I mentioned this in other thread but the successive tides is the biggie...  You get that one with the lop overs and couple of hole punches in the causeways and shore roads here and there. But ... the interim low tide stays elevated ...such that the next one is one the big damage happens. 

Jan 4 was a one and done deal.  Impressive ...not trying to sell that short.. but it didn't have the stalled/maintenance aspect.

[EastonSN+]

GEFS looks a lot colder for the day 10 threat. That may be a better storm than the upcoming super soaker.

[ORH_wxman]

Wow. Euro is ridiculous qpf. Heavy rain to nuking heavy snow. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Euro goes heavy rain to blue bomb.   Big solution!

Figured. Nice.

[Typhoon Tip]

NO!!

everyone has to stay in a rip schit mood....   - ahhahahahaha  awesome.  Pop corn and coke me please - this is the best movie around.

[weathafella]

Wow-crippling Friday on the euro!

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

NO!!

everyone has to stay in a rip schit mood....   - ahhahahahaha  awesome.  Pop corn and coke me please - this is the best movie around.

You'll prob get another 2-3 days min of big emotional swings on each run. 

[dryslot]

To bad this isn't Weds...........

[Typhoon Tip]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wow. Euro is ridiculous qpf. Heavy rain to nuking heavy snow. 

You know ... obviously we give a few minutes to absorb but it's just details again.

I still ...after all this ... think we are simply still dealing with a time slot of huge potential.

What that is may actually take < 48 hours to start getting a coherent picture. 

I wrote all this in that thread I started for this storm but ... folks aren't apparently interested in a focused thread. Okay, but ... this thing as 135 pages in it?  really

[Baroclinic Zone]

Euro looked closer to the CMC earlier on at 12z Thurs.  Primary further south and east than the GFS .