February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[CoastalWx]

Dryslot getting anxious.

[Bostonseminole]

47 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

What a melt.

Anyone that wants a realistic view of the next couple week, please read Donny post.

And this is for NYC area 

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/50883-february-2018-discussions-observations-thread/?do=findComment&comment=4803574

thanks for posting this twice, it helped more... we should have Don post his thoughts on our area.

[WinterWolf]

22 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I agree. This looks to break down late Feb and Morch looks very warm. We’ve got 3-4 weeks left imo 

Lol....look how fast this changed...nobody knows what happens next week...let alone a month from now.  Your opinion at this point is just speculation...you are entitled to it for sure...but it means very little when we don't know what next week brings. 

 

Next week could suck here...Beginning of March could be awesome...nobody knows.   

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Dryslot getting anxious.

You got being anxious out of mixed bag?   lol

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

You got being anxious out of mixed bag?   lol

I can tell. Soon you'll be on the NEST cam throwing around the children's toys.  

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can tell. Soon you'll be on the NEST cam throwing around the children's toys.  

Doubtful, There frozen solid in an 8" pack of ice, Ice fishing on Saturday, Its been a great winter so far, No complaints here, You seem to be moody lately, Hope everything is ok.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Pattern change or length of a good window starting to look like a flop. EPS are ugly. GEFS not nearly as bad... but I know where I’d put my money

[Typhoon Tip]

Again with this ICON model... still haven't had a chance to vet it for longer term biases and usefulness and so forth...  I know that in at least one occurrence, it was attempting to spin up a wave on the arctic boundary that no other guidance had (tomorrow) and thumped 4-6" of snow across the region up until two days ago, but... to it's credit it has since pulled that idea off the drafting table.  

In any case, it's got a synoptic look that is soooo marginal during heavy QPF across a 6 hour period at 120 hours over the blend of 00z and 06z ... if those other parameters verified it would be a 6:1 glopper for most.  33.5 parachutes ending as drizzle before a flash freeze .. .it even has 516 dm thickness wrapping in with CAA backside..   'Magine that...  6" of 1.00 liq, then temps crashing through the 20s. nice. 

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I can tell. Soon you'll be on the NEST cam throwing around the children's toys.  

He doesn’t even respond to my posts lol

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

He doesn’t even respond to my posts lol

I'm kidding with him. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I'm kidding with him. 

You have had a rough stretch, Hope everything is better, Dealing with sick children when your sick is no fun, I see it all winter long here.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, dryslot said:

You have had a rough stretch, Hope everything is better, Dealing with sick children when your sick is no fun.

LOL, I'm fine man. Just hope the EPS is wrong.

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

LOL, I'm fine man. Just hope the EPS is wrong.

If its not, There won't be much any of us is going to do about it anyways, So far this winter, A lot has gone right when it looked to be ominous.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

If its not, There won't be much any of us is going to do about it anyways, So far this winter, A lot has gone right when it looked to be ominous.

We may be in our own little corner. Good chance a chunk of the country goes into Speedos. I guess when I look at a pattern and it's borderline in a prime time of year..I get a little discouraged. Maybe Wednesday works out. 

[dryslot]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We may be in our own little corner. Good chance a chunk of the country goes into Speedos. I guess when I look at a pattern and it's borderline in a prime time of year..I get a little discouraged. Maybe Wednesday works out. 

Next week is pretty active, It would really be bad luck if all those threats went to total crap, Inland areas up in NNE obviously have the best shot if some of these want to hug or even cut on the front end anyways.

[Typhoon Tip]

the difference between some of these recent guidance' by midday Sunday is pretty spectacular.  

the NAM has so much deep colder air that is snows for 12 hours prior to the thickness advance (extrapolating) finally catching up to things...  Low pressure over SW Ontario, with a weak saturated wave down in the MA.   Then you have that dark-horse ICON model with almost no Lakes presentation and a more important closed isobaric system down the coast, with implications for dynamical type system heading this way...  The GFS sides with the NAM and the GGEM is sort of mid way between.   The Euro has it's own unique idea; it has the eastern Lakes low, but it's weak... meanwhile, east of the cordillera over NE it has a robust SW flow normal to  the isotherms with ample time for snow to fall during Sunday daylight, prior to what almost has to be a flip to rain by evening... It has the southern wave but it's considerably farther down the coast and almost looks convectively driven and is suspect. almost like that wouldn't even be part of things..  

all told... weird

[Typhoon Tip]

for more reasons than the usual .. the NAM can't be trusted tho - it's got almost no southern wave and I suspect that it's domain being conic in shape ...such that it truncates off the California Coast where the southern system is presently traversing over the open Pacific, may have something to do with it.  The g-models at least benefit from interpolations/assimilation out there,.. which may be better than nada in this circumstance - ya think.. 

[codfishsnowman]

11 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

We may be in our own little corner. Good chance a chunk of the country goes into Speedos. I guess when I look at a pattern and it's borderline in a prime time of year..I get a little discouraged. Maybe Wednesday works out. 

For whatever it's worth there are those of us who really appreciate your honesty and frankness regarding possible caveats to the winter opus that is being touted for the second half

Maybe we get lucky again, maybe not

Thanks for keeping it real

[Typhoon Tip]

Actually ...heh.. at 06z the initialization over the vast expanse of the middle Pacific domain features a ginormous REX block, with a west based -EPO ridge, and a giant SPV whirling around ...pinned beneath centered around 40N/160W ... It wasn't until 48 hours from 06z that a piece of said SPV gets ejected out... curves over the top of a fledgling western ridge, and then zips ESE through the MVP and off the EC.  

That's the total evolution...  I think there is ample room to feature a more(less) amplified solution wrt to that ejection into the flow...  wow, I wasn't paying attention to that. 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, codfishsnowman said:

For whatever it's worth there are those of us who really appreciate your honesty and frankness regarding possible caveats to the winter opus that is being touted for the second half

Maybe we get lucky again, maybe not

Thanks for keeping it real

I've been moody and I apologize. Sometimes it's good to vent..lol. Good news is that in New England, it can snow pretty easily.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I've been moody and I apologize. Sometimes it's good to vent..lol. Good news is that in New England, it can snow pretty easily.

Esp in SEMA.

[jbenedet]

22 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

for more reasons than the usual .. the NAM can't be trusted tho - it's got almost no southern wave and I suspect that it's domain being conic in shape ...such that it truncates off the California Coast where the southern system is presently traversing over the open Pacific, may have something to do with it.  The g-models at least benefit from interpolations/assimilation out there,.. which may be better than nada in this circumstance - ya think.. 

Yea I don't agree with completely dissipating the southern wave idea. Some semblance of the 0z Euro/0z GEM will be much closer to reality in my view...

Developing PNA ridge should also help keep the southern stream system alive --albeit weak-- and convective processes near the gulf should help with modest synoptic wave development as it jets Northeast...

The longwave pattern isn't conducive to outright suppression/dissipation with PNA ridge, and WAR; it is FAST/progressive though.

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Most of us have been very reasonable admitting there’s equal chances of rains to Maine or snow. Only Ginx and Dryslot have been on the all snow train. Monday and Wednesday storms can still go either way as Will pointed out. 

Well since I said we would have a foot in the next 10 days 6 days a go we have had 7 inches with maybe 2 tonight and 3 Sunday  so there ya go. We foot in ten days

[Ginx snewx]

57 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Doubtful, There frozen solid in an 8" pack of ice, Ice fishing on Saturday, Its been a great winter so far, No complaints here, You seem to be moody lately, Hope everything is ok.

MOF 

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

Yea I don't agree with completely dissipating the southern wave idea. Some semblance of the 0z Euro/0z GEM will be much closer to reality in my view...

Developing PNA ridge should also help keep the southern stream system alive --albeit weak-- and convective processes near the gulf should help with modest synoptic wave development as it jets Northeast...

The longwave pattern isn't conducive to outright suppression/dissipation with PNA ridge, and WAR; it is FAST/progressive though.

That latter observation was actually how this period from Feb 1 thru the 15th was supposed to set up, too.  Not so much for details about the flow/dailies therein...just in general. 

It manifests in the models by 'compression' ...when there is 'too many' isotachs curvi-linearly demarcating the streams.  That means fast fast fast velocities...  Among other mechanical implications, it limits/takes some away from individual S/W ...because those discrete wave structures' wind maxes "disappear" in an already velocity saturated medium as they traverse through. I have noticed over the years, this sort of discussion point doesn't garner much reply if at all - either because folks don't understand why that is limitation, or don't care for the implication... or don't care either way. Not sure, but.. the take away from that is that fast relays between systems may be the highest confidence about this first two weeks of the month - pending a relaxation.  It doesn't mean we can't get bigger deals... the blizzard three weeks ago was in a fast flow regime...  But it is taking something away nonetheless - 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

Entering peak climo for big systems. Things will shuffle around, dont sweat it. Unless we see a complete torch pattern, we are fine. I guess some need absolute perfect teles to make their bellys comfy. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Entering peak climo for big systems. Things will shuffle around, dont sweat it. Unless we see a complete torch pattern, we are fine. I guess some need absolute perfect teles to make their bellys comfy. 

I was ecstatic with negative EPO.  Some wanted nothing but PNA, we snowed thanks to EPO tanking now their leg humping of PNA has led to uncertainty and precip type issues. Congrats on the PNA. Congrats ski areas and NNE

[jbenedet]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That latter observation was actually how this period from Feb 1 thru the 15th was supposed to set up, too.  Not so much for details about the flow/dailies therein...just in general. 

It manifests in the models by 'compression' ...when there is 'too many' isotachs curvi-linearly demarcating the streams.  That means fast fast fast velocities...  Among other mechanical implications, it limits/takes some away from individual S/W ...because those discrete wave structures' wind maxes "disappear" in an already velocity saturated medium as they traverse through. I have noticed over the years, this sort of discussion point doesn't garner much reply if at all - either because folks don't understand why that is limitation, or don't care for the implication... or don't care either way. Not sure, but.. the take away from that is that fast relays between systems may be the highest confidence about this first two weeks of the month - pending a relaxation.  It doesn't mean we can't get bigger deals... the blizzard three weeks ago was in a fast flow regime...  But it is taking something away nonetheless - 

I completely understand this point. From a mechanical standpoint - the dampening of synoptic wave development --is clear to understand when the background flow is moving the disturbance faster than it can "spin-up", if you will. 

Something I know you understand but for the sake of clarity - there's also different levels of fast/progressive flow. The - - AO was a key ingredient for the blizzard earlier this month...I think this current period is probably the most progressive we have seen thus far and I'd be very skeptical of any deep storm systems until either the AO or NAO flip decisively negative, or at least closer to a net-neutral state.

[dryslot]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was ecstatic with negative EPO.  Some wanted nothing but PNA, we snowed thanks to EPO tanking now their leg humping of PNA has led to uncertainty and precip type issues. Congrats on the PNA. Congrats ski areas and NNE

This upcoming pattern is better then the one we just came out of, We may walk the line but i would rather have it be active even if we have to taint then what we just came out of, I'll take my chances.

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I was ecstatic with negative EPO.  Some wanted nothing but PNA, we snowed thanks to EPO tanking now their leg humping of PNA has led to uncertainty and precip type issues. Congrats on the PNA. Congrats ski areas and NNE

EPO is overrated. PNA is not ans has been statistically correlated to good events here. Unfortunately, the EPS is not a PNA pattern. The GEFS is better looking for that.