Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

February is upon us - pattern change is in order


Baroclinic Zone

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply
1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

You know ... obviously we give a few minutes to absorb but it's just details again.

I still ...after all this ... think we are simply still dealing with a time slot of huge potential.

What that is may actually take < 48 hours to start getting a coherent picture. 

I wrote all this in that thread I started for this storm but ... folks are interested. Okay, but ... this thing as 135 pages in it?  really

Yeah we should prob migrate over to the thread you started. We're getting inside 5 days. Regardless of whether this turns into the juggernaut blue bomb or just a tempest rainstorm or even just a mundane system, the threat is clearly strong at this point. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Again seems to me where surface low ejects and it's subsequent trajectory under the block correlates well with how quickly the s/w tracks from the southwest and interacts with northern stream energy... 12z does this all faster than 0z run, so we get a qpf bomb tracking off of NJ

This is maybe north of earlier ensemble runs today, but I think relatively good consensus 

Nice to see Euro put this out entering 120 hr timeframe

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I used 925s and they match 850s so 12z Friday on its snow and TONS of it!

This is the type of system where it will basically go isothermal so it makes sense. With precip that heavy, you're gonna latently cool the column very fast...esp given that WAA shuts off pretty fast (or at least weakens)

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we should prob migrate over to the thread you started. We're getting inside 5 days. Regardless of whether this turns into the juggernaut blue bomb or just a tempest rainstorm or even just a mundane system, the threat is clearly strong at this point. 

my bad if I started that too soon ... but, heh, this is one of those "time slots" that's probably a higher tier one for action. 

Again ...what that is, not withstanding.  And i don't mean to be pissy about it, but I don't like these 100 page threads because I step on other people's contribution and riots start that way I've noticed. 

But then again...part of that is my fault admittedly, because I sometimes disappear for a day and half and fall out of sync..  all good i guess.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, wxsniss said:

Again seems to me where surface low ejects and it's subsequent trajectory under the block correlates well with how quickly the s/w tracks from the southwest and interacts with northern stream energy... 12z does this all faster than 0z run, so we get a qpf bomb tracking off of NJ

This is maybe north of earlier ensemble runs today, but I think relatively good consensus 

Nice to see Euro put this out entering 120 hr timeframe

 

Yes, It was ejected out sooner out of the SW and better phase with the northern stream ahead of the retrograding block, This is what some in NNE need to see.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

12-24" SNH into SW Maine.

That sounds good for GC.  It does not sound good for me connecting through JFK to PWM Friday morning.  Or for my daughter to be flying from BWI to PWM Friday morning.

I wonder if they cancel trans-continental flights for wind/rain.  I can always drive from JFK (which would suck).

Still snowing at PWM.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, wxeyeNH said:

Okay,  I have the Euro clown map.  10 to 1.  Im going to post it in Tips thread for the storm.  It seems like a real threat and we should migrate the postings to its own thread instead of the general Feb thread.   It will be over there if anyone wants to see it.

And why don't you start a new one for the modeling in general  - ... :thumbsup:

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, moneypitmike said:

That sounds good for GC.  It does not sound good for me connecting through JFK to PWM Friday morning.  Or for my daughter to be flying from BWI to PWM Friday morning.

I wonder if they cancel trans-continental flights for wind/rain.  I can always drive from JFK (which would suck).

Still snowing at PWM.

That run was good down to you as well.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

18 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Still have 3 days to buy a canoe but 0z eps members hinted at the most likely solution....only 1 rogue had a good hit for us. we cant overcome a crap airmass, for now. 

This being my 4th winter here now, I have realizes that in these marginal situations, it either never switches over to snow or when it does it is always too late. So hopefully I am wrong but, I have a feeling how this story is going to end. I have rivers running through my yard now, I can't foresee snow accumulating at 33 degrees after 2-4 inches of rain on top of what we already have. Probably have a bigger problem with trees uprooting...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

I think this is the warmest runs we’ll see. The teleconnections —and guidance in general—points to a nuke. Going forward we should see the surface temps respond favorably to much deeper solutions.

I’m optimistic. 

Dont forget the best snowstorms are typically the ones where you’re riding the (ptype) line.

Yes. Go big or go home

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, EastonSN+ said:

Any chance us coasties are close enough to some snow?

oh sure ...  I was kidding about 70 btw - yankin' chains there.

But, it depends what you mean by 'coast'?

Plymouth ...mmm probably would have to wait until the storm's winds back a bit more N ... Up toward coastal NH, a NE wind is really paralleling the coast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...