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February is upon us - pattern change is in order


Baroclinic Zone

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Models will underestimate QPF in this scenario.

Yes, esp in the eastern facing slopes...but even the coastal plain gets speed convergence that the models underestimate when you have these huge firehose easterly flow events. Even in the Mar 2013 event, the models were trying to give like 0.25-0.35" every 6 hours but it turned out to be a lot heavier than that.

This is even an better setup than 2013 from a QPF standpoint. The bigger question will be the mid-level temps, but the polar high is in a good spot to advect that drier air into the system. This is of course this goes as modeled, which is obviously a dangerous assumption still. The blocking though might be starting to stabilize the solutions a little bit. If the solutions don't change too much for another 2-3 runs, then it's a pretty good sign we are honing in on some goalposts. We are starting to see fewer obnoxiously suppressed solutions now, and fewer storms that track up dendrite's fanny like the GFS was doing more consistently a day or two ago.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yes, esp in the eastern facing slopes...but even the coastal plain gets speed convergence that the models underestimate when you have these huge firehose easterly flow events. Even in the Mar 2013 event, the models were trying to give like 0.25-0.35" every 6 hours but it turned out to be a lot heavier than that.

This is even an better setup than 2013 from a QPF standpoint. The bigger question will be the mid-level temps, but the polar high is in a good spot to advect that drier air into the system. This is of course this goes as modeled, which is obviously a dangerous assumption still. The blocking though might be starting to stabilize the solutions a little bit. If the solutions don't change too much for another 2-3 runs, then it's a pretty good sign we are honing in on some goalposts. We are starting to see fewer obnoxiously suppressed solutions now, and fewer storms that track up dendrite's fanny like the GFS was doing more consistently a day or two ago.

How big of a role do you think elevation will play? Just wondering how much I'm going to wish I still lived in Watertown at around 700' as opposed to the sub-500' place I live now.

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4 minutes ago, H2Otown_WX said:

How big of a role do you think elevation will play? Just wondering how much I'm going to wish I still lived in Watertown at around 700' as opposed to the sub-500' place I live now.

It will prob play a role...a little early to tell how much role it will play though. It helps that it is early March and not December when we have deep layer easterly flow, so that should lessen the impact. Also, this high looks to be in a better position than the Dec '92 storm...more north of us rather than sliding off Nova Scotia. So we may have the sfc flow turned a little more ENE/NE rather than E/ENE.

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7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It will prob play a role...a little early to tell how much role it will play though. It helps that it is early March and not December when we have deep layer easterly flow, so that should lessen the impact. Also, this high looks to be in a better position than the Dec '92 storm...more north of us rather than sliding off Nova Scotia. So we may have the sfc flow turned a little more ENE/NE rather than E/ENE.

Is there any chance this goes powder or no matter the solution is interior still paste?

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Tip made this point in the so-far overlooked thread, which I thought salient and am curious as to what other mets think.

"One thing that is interesting is that the 500 mb heights deepen some 6 to 10 DAM as the axis passes quintessentially underneath LI by about 2 or 3 Deg latitude, descending to 528!  That's nooooot usually a rain event at those depths - red flag."

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2 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Tip made this point in the so-far overlooked thread, which I thought salient and am curious as to what other mets think.

"One thing that is interesting is that the 500 mb heights deepen some 6 to 10 DAM as the axis passes quintessentially underneath LI by about 2 or 3 Deg latitude, descending to 528!  That's nooooot usually a rain event at those depths - red flag."

We mentioned it last night 

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9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Is there any chance this goes powder or no matter the solution is interior still paste?

Wha Scott said...too early...but yeah, it could def go to powder at some point. Even Dec '92 did eventually away from immediate coast.

 

This thing could still wind up as no big deal too...gotta remember we're still over 5 days out.

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Working on Olympics and have not had time to check this. Going to Okemo on Friday - it appears this storm will have an impact in a good way correct? Any 30 second synopsis would be great as I am not able to go back and read thread. Thanks to anyone that will help a brother out.

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1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said:

Wha Scott said...too early...but yeah, it could def go to powder at some point. Even Dec '92 did eventually away from immediate coast.

 

This thing could still wind up as no big deal too...gotta remember we're still over 5 days out.

I'd watch for trends southward, only to be somewhat negated by late correction back north.

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