February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[8611Blizz]

That one was a bit painful. 10 miles from my house it doubled the totals.  15 miles from there it doubled again!  Of course that winter worked out fine so it turned out to not be that big of a deal in the long run.

[powderfreak]

9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean less than interior,  but that is sick on the mean. I know PF just mentioned some members well south. 

The mean is definitely south of the operational guidance.  About half of them bomb out over the mid-Atlantic and track due east or even SE.

 

[Hoth]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's my map i made years ago of Dec 1992

 

 

Let's hope the cooler sea temps help us coastal/valley folk this go around.

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Yeah?  How much fall in Taunton and Foxboro for that?  No memory of that.

There was 25 inches in North Foster with 5 plus qpf. Being Dec highly elevation dependant Taunton had 4

[wxsniss]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

I would feel real good if i was in your area right now.

Stronger consensus for ORH area into SNH I think.

12z suite including ensembles had remarkably good consensus for 6 days away, I don't think we've seen that this season.

But still a long way away. Confident of a big system squashed and prolonged by blocking, but where it dumps...? anywhere from Philly to Maine is definitely in the game.

[Hoth]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The mean is definitely south of the operational guidance.  

 

Good. Makes some intuitive sense. That block can repel firepower of this magnitude.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Stronger consensus for ORH area into SNH I think.

12z suite including ensembles had remarkably good consensus for 6 days away, I don't think we've seen that this season.

But still a long way away. Confident of a big system squashed and prolonged by blocking, but where it dumps...? anywhere from Philly to Maine is definitely in the game.

Its going to come down to timing the retrograding block and the s/w ejecting out of the SW, So we will see this shuffle around some.

[40/70 Benchmark]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Here's my map i made years ago of Dec 1992

 

 

Second favorite event.

[powderfreak]

6 minutes ago, Hoth said:

Good. Makes some intuitive sense. That block can repel firepower of this magnitude.

It'll be interesting to follow the thermal part of this too as the ensembles arent cold.  They are further south with the low but it looks like this system will have to dynamically make its own low level cold.

[Ginx snewx]

19 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That euro run is worst case for people south of the pike. So close they can smell the snow... but the only thing they have is flooding rain.

Not all

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

The mean is definitely south of the operational guidance.  About half of them bomb out over the mid-Atlantic and track due east or even SE.

 

Spread is North 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

It'll be interesting to follow the thermal part of this too as the ensembles arent cold.  They are further south with the low but it looks like this system will have to dynamically make its own low level cold.

Agreed. I won't worry about thermals too much at this range, but it certainly is not an ideal preceding airmass.

[Ginx snewx]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Second favorite event.

How old were you

[CoastalWx]

23 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

That euro run is worst case for people south of the pike. So close they can smell the snow... but the only thing they have is flooding rain.

It’s gonna happen sooner or later. You are due for a violent correction 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

It'll be interesting to follow the thermal part of this too as the ensembles arent cold.  They are further south with the low but it looks like this system will have to dynamically make its own low level cold.

I wouldn't look at location of L.P. centers so much this is about inflow and 5 h 7h 8h centers 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Finally

We don’t meh this.   

[CoastalWx]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Its 5.5-6 days out....but the guidance is strangely in good agreement right now and the consensus absolutely annihilates ORH county and S NH...esp east slopes. That synoptic setup is tailor-made for the east slopes of the Berks/ORH hills/Monads.

 

A lot can change still obviously.

Deep easterly flow in a maritime airmass. ORH special. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

How old were you

12

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s gonna happen sooner or later. You are due for a violent correction 

Aren’t most of us? A lot of people cry poverty, but are also above normal with snow over the last decade plus.

Either way, if this consensus holds... I won’t make a peep in this thread after Wednesday. No point in discussing rain down this way. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Deep easterly flow in a maritime airmass. ORH special. 

If I mustered 20" in Dec 1992, a do over should be fun with March ssts

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Not all

Dudes got no clue 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I mustered 20" in Dec 1992, a do over should be fun with March ssts

I just mean in terms of max potential. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It’s gonna happen sooner or later. You are due for a violent correction 

Yes, we are due for this.

[HoarfrostHubb]

A long ways out still, but even if the less cold solutions occur, major coastal issues.

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I just mean in terms of max potential. 

I know...Just saying.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Aren’t most of us? A lot of people cry poverty, but are also above normal with snow over the last decade plus.

Either way, if this consensus holds... I won’t make a peep in this thread after Wednesday. No point in discussing rain down this way. 

In terms of anomalies you are off the charts. 

 

Abyways way too early to get into details. Just saying.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If I mustered 20" in Dec 1992, a do over should be fun with March ssts

Yeah, don't forget that in 1992, even ORH wasted several hours with rain and RN/SN mix in the early stages. With a bit better low levels this time around, we'd prob not waste as much.

Still not an ideal airmass, but it's probably good enough.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

There was 25 inches in North Foster with 5 plus qpf. Being Dec highly elevation dependant Taunton had 4

Took a drive from Raynham Where we had 2" or so to Diamond Hill, RI. Amazing that last few miles up to base of hill. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah, don't forget that in 1992, even ORH wasted several hours with rain and RN/SN mix in the early stages. With a bit better low levels this time around, we'd prob not waste as much.

Still not an ideal airmass, but it's probably good enough.

Models will underestimate QPF in this scenario.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

12

Excellent  perfect storm to develop a young weenies mind, my youngest was 14. We drove all over SNE together looking at damage at the beach to feet of snow in NWRI.  He often talks about that when people say RI sucks for snow. That storm was brutal for its intensity on the coast. We went sledding in Groton Ct the next day when they flipped for a couple on the backside.