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February is upon us - pattern change is in order


Baroclinic Zone

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28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Man the GFS is epic for the Maine mtns. Holy sh*t. Congrats Ginxy and his brokeback ski trip.

Got that 2013 vibe heading into March. We will deal with a highly anomalous pattern, models will suck. Look at the animated DT PVU  pressure and wind and how that west wind abruptly turns east. Buckle up kids and for God's sake don't take anything the GFS puts out at the surface verbatim

gfs_DTpres_us_44.png

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From what I'm seeing in this operational GFS cycle ... the thickness layout is getting mangled for cold air prior to the initial onset of the -NAO's effecting the circulation ... 

The mid levels have really ample mechanics for some fantastic slow moving Miller B'easts but ... the lax surface thicnkness gradients are normalizing the baroclinic zones too much for coherently focused surface lows...  This looks like a page out of any early April -NAO more so than March 1

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