February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[tamarack]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Good to hear, I was up in your neck of the woods last weekend, The pack was good, Not as much as i thought it would be in the Stratton/Eustis area, Probably will head back up there next weekend.

If you're ever on our town's club trails (unlikely when Stratton and Rangeley aren't much farther to trailer), you ought to stop by.

[dryslot]

1 minute ago, tamarack said:

If you're ever on our town's club trails (unlikely when Stratton and Rangeley aren't much farther to trailer), you ought to stop by.

I'll keep that in mind, Don't usually get over there as i have free stay in Eustis so i ride out of there mainly and head North or NW............

[Whineminster]

I'm heading up to Baker River Valley/Stinson Lake this weekend. On web-cam it still looks OK, although icy on the lake. 

Brap brap everyone!

http://bruhawachet2.axiscam.net:8888/view/viewer_index.shtml?id=131

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

28 minutes ago, tamarack said:

25" BN here, notwith'd label as "only a little".  D id not see a flake of real powder after the Jan 28 WINDEX.  That event was followed by 25 days w/o measurable precip, which overlapped with the 46-day run of AN temps. 
There's no way to minimize how disgusting that season was, except maybe by comparing it to CAR.  Their getting 7" less snowfall than BWI must be about a 500-year event.  They have almost 80 years of record and BWI 70, and CAR's 2nd least snowy winter had 6" more than BWI's 2nd highest.  The JFMA temps that year at CAR were 3.87° milder than the 2nd mildest.  The difference between #1 and #2 is greater than that between #2 and #27.  I've no idea what the statistical improbability is for that kind of 1-2 gap.

The last 3 sentences are quite unbelievable When you put them in perspective. Really just jaw dropping. What a disgusting putrid rotten marine airmass . Seeing days and days of Dews Not go below 30 at Caribou In mid winter..

[jbenedet]

Now down to -2 F in Northern Maine 12z Sunday per 12z Nam. 

We're going to get this Plains stemwinder to pop a coastal...

[Damage In Tolland]

[CoastalWx]

This could be another good icing event for NH. Congrats Pope.

[Typhoon Tip]

You can see the -NAO circulation effecting the GFS operational run at D7 on this particular cycle.  It's going to be interesting/fun to watch the model try and grind that Lakes cutter into the physically impossible - hahaha

[MJO812]

Gfs looks good for sne for next weekend

[dendrite]

58 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This could be another good icing event for NH. Congrats Pope.

Nice little mesolow this run.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

42 minutes ago, Snow88 said:

Gfs looks good for sne for next weekend

How so? 

[dryslot]

Looked like the block was squeezing that s/w south into the mid atlantic.

[Typhoon Tip]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Looked like the block was squeezing that s/w south into the mid atlantic.

yup ... 

the one after that ... resumes the previous dynamic.   Oh geez the NAO is shrinking at both ends...  

[Damage In Tolland]

First is a congrats Philly. The only one of interest for NYC north is the Morch 7-8 event 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

First is a congrats Philly. The only one of interest for NYC north is the Morch 7-8 event 

Its over a week out...its all of interest.

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Its over a week out...its all of interest.

Follow it as you wish and get angry like this in tandem

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Follow it as you wish and get angry like this in tandem

Who is angry?

It could miss, but I'm not sure the scenario portrayed at day 8-9 is always the correct one.

You dismissed the other blizzard at half the lead time, and it still hit.

[dryslot]

10 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

First is a congrats Philly. The only one of interest for NYC north is the Morch 7-8 event 

Yup, Once the -NAO relaxes that will be the shot in NE

[ORH_wxman]

Absolutely no robust reason to discount the early March signal about 7-8 days out. That could def hit us. It could miss too. Any prediction right now is 95% conjecture. 

[CoastalWx]

Doesn't seem like one of those deals where blocking lasts several weeks. At least on the ensembles. Already the NAO starts to look more positive at the end of the ensembles. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn't seem like one of those deals where blocking lasts several weeks. At least on the ensembles. Already the NAO starts to look more positive at the end of the ensembles. 

I'm not sure we'd want it into April.

[512high]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn't seem like one of those deals where blocking lasts several weeks. At least on the ensembles. Already the NAO starts to look more positive at the end of the ensembles. 

What? I thought we were heading -AO, you mean march 7th area time frame?

[Damage In Tolland]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn't seem like one of those deals where blocking lasts several weeks. At least on the ensembles. Already the NAO starts to look more positive at the end of the ensembles. 

And you asked me earlier where I got that same **** 

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I'm not sure we'd want it into April.

I do. I want to see people miserable, and my grass green up. I am sick.

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, 512high said:

What? I thought we were heading -AO, you mean march 7th area time frame?

 

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

And you asked me earlier where I got that same **** 

LOL, not sure what you guys mean, other than it seemed like the -NAO relaxes quite a bit after the 7th or so.  Might have a better Pacific to help out at that point. 

[Typhoon Tip]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Doesn't seem like one of those deals where blocking lasts several weeks. At least on the ensembles. Already the NAO starts to look more positive at the end of the ensembles. 

 

Just going to bring this up ...  you beat me to it! 

yeah, I realize my own contribution to this thread leveled 'perhaps' enhanced potential around March 2-5th ...but folks, it's entirely possible this NAO has lied to you - just like we warned many times, days and days ago...

We've been in a horrible NAO performance decade.  We even cited an example earlier this season. The NAO was progged around X-mass to tank ...never happened. People forget.  Perhaps desperation? 

I dunno, but for now ..I'm still going to assume a -NAO does transpire and retrograde ... but if chagrins and falls apart.  Meh. If it gets appreciably negative and then starts to rise (March 2-6th) I suspect there could be a correction event in there. Seems to coincide with a subtle relaxation in the deep PNA numbers, too, ..if it helps.. 

 

 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Just going to bring this up ...  you beat me to it! 

yeah, I realize my own contribution to this thread leveled 'perhaps' enhanced potential around March 2-5th ...but folks, it's entirely possible this NAO has lied to you - just like we warned many times, days and days ago...

We've been in a horrible NAO performance decade.  We even cited an example earlier this season. The NAO was progged around X-mass to tank ...never happened. People forget.  Perhaps desperation? 

I dunno, but for now ..I'm still going to assume a -NAO does transpire and retrograde ... but if chagrins and falls apart.  Meh. If it gets appreciably negative and then starts to rise (March 2-6th) I suspect there could be a correction event in there. Seems to coincide with a subtle relaxation in the deep PNA numbers, too, ..if it helps.. 

 
 

 

Well I am not poo pooing it or anything. Besides, perhaps as everything retros, might be our best chance?  Also that block is strong, so even if it weakens, residual higher heights near Hudson bay may be enough to slow the flow down for another week or so. 

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Well I am not poo pooing it or anything. Besides, perhaps as everything retros, might be our best chance?  Also that block is strong, so even if it weakens, residual higher heights near Hudson bay may be enough to slow the flow down for another week or so. 

I don't have any problem's or compunctions about abruptly pulling any plugs in this game ...

That's all...  I'm a realist. 

Not you per se, but people miss-construe that as some sort of contrarian agenda when no - the agenda at hand is usually based upon some pretty unique perspectives (to put it nicely) to begin with. 

I'm not sure how more clear I can make this:  (NAO have not been verifying very well for many years) + ( seeing the models back off any at all ) = should give objective readers of this crap pause in the minimum.  

There is overwhelming support coming from the the GEFs and as far as I can tell, the EPS ... perhaps more than previous attempts?  I dunno - but it seems that way. For that, I'm still on board but I give it all a short leash. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Just going to bring this up ...  you beat me to it! 

yeah, I realize my own contribution to this thread leveled 'perhaps' enhanced potential around March 2-5th ...but folks, it's entirely possible this NAO has lied to you - just like we warned many times, days and days ago...

We've been in a horrible NAO performance decade.  We even cited an example earlier this season. The NAO was progged around X-mass to tank ...never happened. People forget.  Perhaps desperation? 

I dunno, but for now ..I'm still going to assume a -NAO does transpire and retrograde ... but if chagrins and falls apart.  Meh. If it gets appreciably negative and then starts to rise (March 2-6th) I suspect there could be a correction event in there. Seems to coincide with a subtle relaxation in the deep PNA numbers, too, ..if it helps.. 

 

 

Either that or science...one of the two-

[Ginx snewx]

euro with a non inconsequential snow in  Orh CNE NNE sunday mon ( Ray won't like us talking about it)