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February is upon us - pattern change is in order


Baroclinic Zone

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

To anyone that may want/need learning in larger scale synoptic mechanisms...  This 12z operational GFS is a wonder free introduction course work.  

Toggle through the charts for the time period of 90 hours through 120 ... take note of the Great Lakes cutter low's full evolution up and through the area...  

Next ... toggle through the charts from ~ 200 through 240 hours, and take note of the difference in total behavior, over the same region of the country.

The latter is the effects of the -NAO blocking ...  the former is the effects of limited/no -NAO 

Yea good juxtaposition there. 

That said, GFS is ticking colder run to run for this weekend; it was particularly noticeable on the 12z vs 6z run. Seeing a cold tuck like that on GFS at 84 hr is a red flag to me that there will be significant low level CAD, at least in the areas north of the pike.

NAO is modeled to be negative by the 25th, so I would expect that the operational guidance (particularly the GFS, which has a +NAO look) trends toward a more -NAO setup going forward.

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1 hour ago, jbenedet said:

Yea people are probably going to want to hit me for this, but I think Sunday may be our best and only shot at a significant winter event over the next 10 days...

 

And 12z GFS seems a couple degrees milder than the 06z, looks dodgey for frozen, AUG to RUM.  Latest run shows 16 consecutive daily minima at least 5° AN for everywhere in the south half of Maine.

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I love that D10 Euro... Goes for a full subsume phased juggernaut while squatting the whole construct squarely on top of the SE ridge... 

Pacific vs the Atlantic in a battle of ages there...  

But, for entertainment sake only:  that depiction is probably a seasonal corrective snow event for the MA and NE regions ... and one of such duration that it probably ends as as a core wrapped wind swept light drizzle 72 hours later.... 

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26 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I love that D10 Euro... Goes for a full subsume phased juggernaut while squatting the whole construct squarely on top of the SE ridge... 

Pacific vs the Atlantic in a battle of ages there...  

But, for entertainment sake only:  that depiction is probably a seasonal corrective snow event for the MA and NE regions ... and one of such duration that it probably ends as as a core wrapped wind swept light drizzle 72 hours later.... 

Bring it on....we're due for a long duration beast anyway.  

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