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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

What an aesthetic image, The North Pacific ridge is very far Southwest. There is really no analog for this type of intensity/placement. 83-84 was pretty close with a +PNA but this is something special about this Winter, how far south big ridges have set up. It has to be a La Nina 

35 years into the future of GW ... that's what? 

Frankly, [entirely hypothesis/suppositional] but I've been wondering for some time, if the propensity over recent years to drive heights high in the NE Pacific, ..subsequently, physically instructive on carving out the JB "polar vortex" ...isn't all part of that.  

The problem is, surplus oceanic heat in the winter months... First, water's specific heat is several orders of magnitude greater than air. Second, the Pacific's oceanic SSTs and thermocline numbers have been elevated for some time, regardless of ENSO. The whole domain, including the middle latitudes are above normal... Perhaps not true at all times? But certainly the majority over the last ..decades really.  And, not just the Pacific; this has been true over the Global oceanic regions, not just in the equitorial band/districts associated with Pacific NINO monitoring.  Pervasively...there is a thermal surplus out there in the whole of the ocean.  Such that when the hemisphere starts to cool in the Autumn, that becomes an ever increasing heat source that is exposed by the steepening gradient (seasonal)... Eventually, exhausting into billowing atmospheric heights nearing/ivo Alaska... 

I have noticed that regardless of El Nino or La Nina ... this tendency/flow construct has been steadily more favored over the last 10 or even 20 years. So, that immediately questions the cause as not being entirely related to either leading state of the ENSO.  So, ...something other than 'just that' is contributing.  

Then, all of that has to hide behind the dogma and mantra about 'any one pattern can't be blamed on x-y-z' while it's entirely x-y-z's fault... but that's another point of rage in the minds of GW deniers - haha. 

Anyway, part of this isn't really all my idea.  I remember reading an article way back in the day... late 1980s or very early 1990s, Scientific American I think was the publication. The article had to do with GW, early days style ... when everything was speculative and there was far less actual empirical data/results observable in the environment.  Since? Oh we have a cornucopia of them, too long to list here... the most shocking of which is the triggering of the next major extinction event (chapter four in this science "fiction"..). This article dealt specifically with the base-line weather pattern in a warmer(ing)world, leading to harsh winters over N/A...  The cause? The tendency for raising heights causing sloped flow downstream over the continent.  It also delved into the science of the thermalhaline cycle and the north Atlantic triggering harsh winters over eastern Canada and western Euro. This latter stuff deals with surface salinity altering the density ...and deflecting the Gulf stream south and/or eventually shutting down the conveyor system that delivers warmth to higher Atlantic Basin latitudes.  ...  The gist of the article was the counter-intuitive interim effects of GW...  

Well... bounce ahead 30 years... I am not sure what the status of the back-ground salinity of the N Atlantic surface waters are, or if there is any quantized measuring of the Gufl stream losing any momentum/effectiveness... But, the NE Pacific propensity to encourage blocking there, seemingly doing so regardless of aspects such as ENSO... mm, interesting. 

 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Yeah I'll take the under Thursday on 40s...I just hope we keep the forcing south.

Heh, and that's with a high temp around 12 a.m. Thursday. Looks like 20's for us during the day...

As crazy as this may seem, I think N Mid Atlantic and southern most points of this sub forum (away from the coast) are at highest risk for frozen precip on Thurs. Not us. But we'll see...

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SJonesWX

SJonesWX

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Whineminster said:

Up at Stinson Lake this weekend...amazing how there is like 0 snow in Tilton but less than 20 miles north its game on.  

Too bad it'll all be gone everywhere by Thursday. 

that area is great for snow retention, especially the higher elevations. i have never been, but i hear the snowmobiling in the Baker River area is in great shape as of yesterday

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dendrite

dendrite

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Whineminster said:

Up at Stinson Lake this weekend...amazing how there is like 0 snow in Tilton but less than 20 miles north its game on.  

Too bad it'll all be gone everywhere by Thursday. 

There may be 0" at the torched parking lots, but there's a general 8-10" depth here.

depth022018.gif

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

not sure if anyone's notice this or not ...but the NAO was delayed as far as how it may stress the pattern/effect on the flow... This 12z GFS continues that.  Monday's system is now allowed to penetrate eastern Canada via the Lakes route instead of diving ESE like the runs prior to 00z ... 

Let's monitor this NAO lie day by day and watch it squished to 18 hours worth of it in mid May when it sends seasonal mirth assassinating BD down to Mertle Beach

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

funny ...i haven't watched the weather channel in years ... but, it was on television down in the cafe at lunch... and here was their extended out look temperatures for "Your area" they featured in their graphics. 

     WED 21| THU 22| FRI 23| SAT 24| SUN 25| MON 26| TUE 27|WED CLIMO
N/X  48  68| 37  40| 22  40| 32  51| 36  47| 34  48| 28  43|
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