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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

I'm confused too...I don't see Congrats Freak or anyone on Friday.

Now Sunday/Monday time looks more interesting.

Noting big but like I said this morning some sigs for some snow in the air. Euro has it, steady accumulation  in PA modeled right now but we watch especially western zones

index (7).png

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

It's bizarre ...the Euro tries to bring the warm air right back in the next day ..before the more meaningful collapse over the weekend.  Extremes over short duration... Nothing like sleet under 580 dam heights ...

In any case, ...I feel as though this ridge was well handled by the Euro... the fact that today was cut and this boundary is bullying in ahead of mechanics to really do so on Thursday, really fits the shirk warm thing I opined over last week.  interesting...  It's just doing it in the short term and knocking chunks of the ends...

Anyway, if we things turn wintry prior to next week, it's not the same drive behind it that's associated with the crashing AO and counterpart NAO, btw -

It's really just us ending up on the N side of the warm air mass where the same fast pattern that supports faux mix events is still in place.  Just sayn'

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's bizarre ...the Euro tries to bring the warm air right back in the next day ..before the more meaningful collapse over the weekend.  Extremes over short duration...

In any case, ...I feel as though this ridge was well handled by the Euro... the fact that today was cut and this boundary is bullying in ahead of mechanics to really do so on Thursday, really fits the shirk warm thing I opined over last week.  interesting...  It's just doing it in the short term and knocking chunks of the ends...

Anyway, if we things turn wintry prior to next week, it's not the same drive behind it that's associated with the crashing AO and counterpart NAO, btw -

It's really just us ending up on the N side of the warm air mass where the same fast pattern that supports faux mix events is still in place.  Just sayn'

This is a great point. It is very difficult to really drive warm fronts well through the region this time of year (obviously it happens) but if you look at the pattern this weekend and into next weekend it is not a pattern which favors strong warm front penetration. 

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

The warm up is over after Wed. Watch the Friday threat get pushed all the way south into the Northern Mid Atlantic. I have no idea where the AN temps are coming from on guidance for Saturday and Sunday—big correction lower coming. Backdoors incoming.

yeah there is no warm signal for this weekend. Good time to find out who the folks are who rip and read MOS 

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jbenedet

jbenedet

Posted
Posted

UL ridge is overhead but UL troughing is really building into SE Canada by late Friday into Saturday, and we’re going to see some really robust surface highs underneath that...I think this week is going to be remembered as one helluva whip saw. I think slightly BN is even possible by Friday, through the weekend.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

Posted
Posted
35 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Unless I'm reading this wrong but wouldn't this be a pretty good cold indicator? 

gfs_mslpa_atl_20.png

That is not a particularly cold look. You have low pressure coming up the Ohio valley and a high over the Flemish cap. We want that high more over Quebec or at the very least northeast of Maine to be a colder look. The setup shown is about to produce mild southwest flow at the surface once that low moves a little further northeast. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

You know... the "events" tend to happen at the initial mode change of the large mass fields...  This 18z GFS reminds us [sort of]...  It shows a sneaky modeate snow bomb on early Monday followed by system after system diving too far S to be players suddenly thereafter.     Interesting...

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is not a particularly cold look. You have low pressure coming up the Ohio valley and a high over the Flemish cap. We want that high more over Quebec or at the very least northeast of Maine to be a colder look. The setup shown is about to produce mild southwest flow at the surface once that low moves a little further northeast. 

 

1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

flip the pressures over Greenland and NewFound. That looks warmish with sw winds.

So at this stage this is more of a transition between cooler and warmer temperatures? I was not really incorporating wind directions here (although I guess I should have). I was using thinking how higher sfc pressures this time of year usually are associated with colder temps and lower pressures with warmer temps. 

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