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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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weatherwiz

weatherwiz

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Yes...that’s the way I envisioned it too..your  last sentence sums it up well in my mind.  The distance between the ridge and the troughs shorten obviously...

Perfect. I'll be super excited if my interpretation is correct. Perhaps one day I'll be able to get the time again to explore all this stuff and study/analyze more. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Nah... that '97 thing was a point anomaly in a sea of foment ...  almost like one of those "rogue wave" deals....where some hapless cargo ship hauling 700,000 tons of iron ore in a standard chop sea suddenly keels from a 120' abyssal wall of N. Atlantic death out of no where. 

Only it wasn't so much a 'rogue wave' in the atmosphere ... but suffices to say, you can be rollin' along and then just have something like that happen.  

Although, my recollection of that event did have a better lead predictive skill then some may be aware.  I recall Harvey Leonard ...some 5 days prior, mentioning the off possibility of what that could do "...Should it pass under the latitude of Long Island..." - I recall that statement as precise.  At that time, the models had it well SE of Nova Scotia, ...however, the ensemble mean, as Walter Drag mentioned ( at the time still at BOX) had a lot of ensemble smearing back toward the west so it was something to keep an eye on ... Well, heh.

Sure enough, cycle after cycle...it plotted west by enough naut miles per run that eventually some 1.5 day prior...finally, they all coalesced quintessentially just as Harvey mused many days before. 

One thing that also stood out to me is just how incredulous the general forecasting ambit was about that whole scenario.  Oh, going 6-12" is nothing to flout on April 1... And so, they get a lot of credit. But, the kinematics were always there for much, much more than that.. I recall Barry Burbank was talking about 12" over Metro West in his forecast, and his were among the higher numbers.  That thing was so perfectly structured in all facet, spacial to temporal.. the perfection in its self was the anomaly.  That thing in May would have done something similar... though you'd be even less likely to set that up in the first place as the entire hemisphere wouldn't deliver it by then...

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

One thing I just want to get out there ... if not offering some reining conservatism ...  a -NAO is not a slam dunk for high-wheeler ice cream parties. 

Idiosyncrasies in structure and placement of any high latitude blocking over the NW arc of the Atlantic Basic could chagrin the schit out of that whole period.

Not saying it will, but... seems there's some tendency for hopes to fly here and that's okay, as long as you have a place to land that flight ...whether you are in this for practical or emotional reasons aside.

For winter enthusiasts... you can be happy that there is a signal.  For me, I'm leaving it at that though... NOA: giveth, and taketh away

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, wx2fish said:

Euros pretty wintry across CNE/NNE sunday

The models actually shows a good deal of 850mb thermal compression all the way down into N. Massachusetts 12z Sunday, where it's 0 C ... quite a sensible shock from Saturday afternoon to that point in time Sunday morning... but, it's probably indicative of a cold boundary layer knifing in from the NE all way to NYC or more... mix issues therein -

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Damage In Tolland

Damage In Tolland

Posted
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2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

The models actually shows a good deal of 850mb thermal compression all the way down into N. Massachusetts 12z Sunday, where it's 0 C ... quite a sensible shock from Saturday afternoon to that point in time Sunday morning... but, it's probably indicative of a cold boundary layer knifing in from the NE all way to NYC or more... mix issues therein -

Yeah that has all the earmarks of snow/ice all the way down to NYC burbs

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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Also - I'd be happy to go above MOS a couple clicks or more for Thursday given this Euro synopsis that morning.  Big high pressing in from the NW with only weak CAA, ... and you end up with d-slope kata drying under still +4 to +7 900 mb in that look and you're probably going to bust MOS, given no cloud/post Feb 15 sun. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
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10 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

When the first potential is squashed, I look forward to the whining.

haha :D

it's like... that far-side cartoon?  the illustration shows two dudes prostrated over a slurry pool under a single desert palm with the orb of the sun hammering down... their prints in the sand as though they had meandered upon the life saving water source from miles ... and the one guy's head is turned toward the other as they stoop with a caption bubble that reads, "What? -no cups!"

only in this case, the entitlement is the expecting dividends off a -NAO...   Right, like we said early, be cautious in one's optimism if not leery - these things are not always a good thing for winter enthusiasm.  We hedge our bets... that's all -

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Ha ha ... 'helluva way to run a torch'  ?  that's gotta be a joke, right...

like, it's snowing now at 53 F ... and will be snowing when it's 70 F on Wednesday ....   Yeah, helluva a way... 

The torch wasn't supposed to be next weekend...  less I'm missing something.

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Ginx snewx

Ginx snewx

Posted
Posted
10 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Ha ha ... 'helluva way to run a torch'  ?  that's gotta be a joke, right...

like, it's snowing now at 53 F ... and will be snowing when it's 70 F on Wednesday ....   Yeah, helluva a way... 

The torch wasn't supposed to be next weekend...  less I'm missing something.

Whoooosh

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