February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[8611Blizz]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Man would I give up a teste for that. 

Would you say that before you had kids?

 

[#NoPoles]

32 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

And I'm still rain

[jbenedet]

18z GEFS is sweet. No complaints. 

[jbenedet]

6 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I realize you didn't ask me, but ... I dunno if I'd get that quick with it .. but I see why you're saying it.  

( I suppose if we can go from a last night to Wednesday at 18z ...we can go the other way too - we'll keep that in mind. )

However, there is a midland possibility that the models are eroding the ridge too quickly ... Sending a cfropa through the NW arc of it while paralleling the flow as early as mid day Thursday is a little questionable.  Upon closer inspection of that .. the flow is actually more west to east at 500 mb over the top o the ridge, by the time Thursday arrives, and that may just be enough to punch SOME kind of front through.  However, even if so... I don't see that as an aggressive cold transport behind it...

I mean I don't want to be paradoxical here, either.. I realize I was just 'sounding' winter optimistic a couple hours back.  But I'm just considering this week as an entirely separate entity in time ... not to be confused with this:

Which may need some time to marinade.  I think we have to get past 200 hours. That won't take as long as people may think. I bet by this Thursday, 120's worth of that temporal journey we may already have something interesting in the middle range of the time ...

Can something happen early? I am not hugely confident in saying no.. but I'm not leaning that way.  

Yea don’t get me wrong, the best of the pattern begins next week. I’m on board with the idea that the shift will take a while to settle into a “favorable” state. I’m just trying to bring home the idea that there will be winter storms for us to track between now and March 1st. Great storms? Likely not. But the wintery appeal is coming back much faster than many think imo, especially up here. The medium term guidance is likely too warm for us; it looks rife with backdooring and that means highs in the 20’s and 30’s for a good chunk of the forum in late feb.

[Cold Miser]

59 minutes ago, #NoPoles said:

And I'm still rain

lol.

Close to a Benchmark Special on that.  Too much fantasy this far out.  But still fairly delicious looking.

[CoastalWx]

1 hour ago, 8611Blizz said:

Would you say that before you had kids?

 

I’d have to debate it. 

[OceanStWx]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

Man would I give up a teste for that. 

Would make my first midnight shift very interesting.

[dendrite]

Congrats picnic tables.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Man would I give up a teste for that. 

I would give up both.

[Bigfoot]

Sorry ,a little off topic ,want to take a trip to ocean city n.j. Boardwalk and wondered about advice if it is worth it in feb,going wed in 70 degree weather ,is the shops and Boardwalk even open ,comming from upstate ny ,so about 5 hrs.2 adults and 1 pup ,any advise would be appreciated before I make this trip ,not looking for amusement park just a calm experience in good weather,thanks guys

[dendrite]

2 hours ago, #NoPoles said:

And I'm still rain

Would you give up an ovary?

[Bigfoot]

3 minutes ago, Bigfoot said:

Sorry ,a little off topic ,want to take a trip to ocean city n.j. Boardwalk and wondered about advice if it is worth it in feb,going wed in 70 degree weather ,is the shops and Boardwalk even open ,comming from upstate ny ,so about 5 hrs.2 adults and 1 pup ,any advise would be appreciated before I make this trip ,not looking for amusement park just a calm experience in good weather,thanks guys

Sorry meant to put this in Banter thread and screwed up

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

7 minutes ago, Bigfoot said:

Sorry ,a little off topic ,want to take a trip to ocean city n.j. Boardwalk and wondered about advice if it is worth it in feb,going wed in 70 degree weather ,is the shops and Boardwalk even open ,comming from upstate ny ,so about 5 hrs.2 adults and 1 pup ,any advise would be appreciated before I make this trip ,not looking for amusement park just a calm experience in good weather,thanks guys

You’re better off asking in nyc and or philly subforums. It’s Boston centric up here. 

[Bigfoot]

Thanks ,I did ,no reply there either,thought there was more members here who might have traveled there , Thanks for the reply anyways 

[Redmorninglight]

11 minutes ago, Bigfoot said:

Thanks ,I did ,no reply there either,thought there was more members here who might have traveled there , Thanks for the reply anyways 

I doubt we hit 70 here with a 40 degree ocean so close. The pine barrens to the west of the beaches heat quickly and draw in a sea breeze that is shockingly cool. As far as the boardwalk, there will be a few shops open but no rides or amusements open. OCNJ is a dry town too so all restaurants are BYO. The Cape May pedestrian mall and shops, bars and restaurants are busier on weekends. Hope this helps. If you like nature, Brigantine wildlife refuge has a great driving loop through marsh and woods just outside AC. 

[#NoPoles]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

Would you give up an ovary?

For a 40hr snowstorm? Yes, but I need to stay all snow

[Bigfoot]

18 minutes ago, Redmorninglight said:

I doubt we hit 70 here with a 40 degree ocean so close. The pine barrens to the west of the beaches heat quickly and draw in a sea breeze that is shockingly cool. As far as the boardwalk, there will be a few shops open but no rides or amusements open. OCNJ is a dry town too so all restaurants are BYO. The Cape May pedestrian mall and shops, bars and restaurants are busier on weekends. Hope this helps. If you like nature, Brigantine wildlife refuge has a great driving loop through marsh and woods just outside AC. 

Thanks for the tip,agree ocean wind will make it cooler,maybe I will reconsider our plans,thanks

[moneypitmike]

Looks like I've picked a couple good weeks to get away.  Off to FL today-Thursday, then to the west coast Sun/Thursday.

Try to have winter in store come March 2.

 

[Damage In Tolland]

NAM jams ruins it?

if we are jammed up
in a bunch of low clouds. NAM soundings suggests this as a
possibility...but often southwest flow is able to allow for
these to break up. However...if the low clouds remain in place
high temps would be cooler than currently forecast

[CoastalWx]

Hopefully not.

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

If its gonna be warm then torch it. Flock of birds chirping this morning at work, they must know something.

[CoastalWx]

Might have to watch Sunday Monday next week. Could sneak something in, esp north of pike. 

Beyond that, first week of March looks interesting. 

[dendrite]

52 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

NAM jams ruins it?

if we are jammed up
in a bunch of low clouds. NAM soundings suggests this as a
possibility...but often southwest flow is able to allow for
these to break up. However...if the low clouds remain in place
high temps would be cooler than currently forecast

Glad we don’t live there. I’ll take my SW flow off the Monads instead of LIS.

[jbenedet]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might have to watch Sunday Monday next week. Could sneak something in, esp north of pike. 

Beyond that, first week of March looks interesting. 

That’s the most interesting over next 7 days but Tucky Tucky on Friday-Saturday. I still think that’s the next wintry event for north of pike.

[Ginx snewx]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Might have to watch Sunday Monday next week. Could sneak something in, esp north of pike. 

Beyond that, first week of March looks interesting. 

Yes and sneaky WAA overunning on Friday for south of the Pike will need to be watched. Right now its PA but that could come east some to affect SWCT especially. Kev do you see what I was saying about this upcoming weekend?

[Baroclinic Zone]

Well not the pattern change people were envisioning.  LOL

[Ginx snewx]

7 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

That’s the most interesting over next 7 days but Tucky Tucky on Friday-Saturday. I still think that’s the next wintry event for north of pike.

Yea CAD situation, Friday popped up out of nowhere.  On the toes pattern

[jbenedet]

Looking further into Sunday-Monday, I think could be wintry for most—interior SNE to north of pike type deal.

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Well not the pattern change people were envisioning.  LOL

Not the torch weekend some others envisioned. Nice wintry appeal morning low was 19

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, jbenedet said:

Looking further into Sunday-Monday, I think could be wintry for most—interior SNE to north of pike type deal.

Its been me and you against the world on this end of weekend  setup,  I see Scooters weenie inflated a little, have to watch this pretty interesting