February is upon us - pattern change is in order

[LurkerBoy]

26 minutes ago, dendrite said:

GFS has CON’s first ever Feb 70F.

Scary stuff. 

[CoastalWx]

Wx2fish will be feverishly tapping trees.

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's a shut down run for many places even up into Canada. Hopefully they can open back up by early Morch 

Not in northern Maine it’s not.   Sunday River will endure it, and not shut down. 

 

and sledding in Northern Maine will escape the big temps.  

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

70 a lock on Tues/Wed. No snow in sight after tonight. -NAO pushed back again

You said that last weekend we said don't sleep on this weekend, we tell you again don't sleep on next weekend

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Not in northern Maine it’s not.   Sunday River will endure it, and not shut down. 

 

and sledding in Northern Maine will escape the big temps.  

 

 

Kev has shutdown NNE so many times over the years they would be bankrupt if true.  Pretty sure they all survive

[dendrite]

Another shot of rum.

[HoarfrostHubb]

1 hour ago, dendrite said:

GFS has CON’s first ever Feb 70F.

What did they get to last Feb around the same date?   

We hit 69F last Feb during President’s week

[dendrite]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

What did they get to last Feb around the same date?   

We hit 69F last Feb during President’s week

69F

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It's a shut down run for many places even up into Canada. Hopefully they can open back up by early Morch 

lol.  
"warm" temps in february or a few days won't shut down CNE/NNE ski areas, especially after a good base has been established.  That is not the way it works.

[alex]

We've had several days in the 40s to near 50 and even a couple of above freezing nights and I still haven't been able to melt the driveway, and the stake is still at 17". We may be down to patches in the valley bottom but I'm pretty sure the groomed trails will be fine, especially the man made stuff

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

GFS has CON’s first ever Feb 70F.

Interesting Brian... It's been the most resistant model to this warm ridge episode..

Folks - the GEFs derived teleconnectors "seemed" to have resumed their previous dynamic, which featured a concerted dive in the AO among the members, as well as an accompanying NAO descent - though not as robustly in the latter.  

That was "sort of" lost yesterday ...leaving me to ponder whether the whole thing were a red-herring to begin with. It was an easy chin-scratch leeriness because let's face it... polar ward indexes have been flaky and non-committal (...particularly the NAO) spanning several years now.  And, though it could all still be proven so in this case, we do still have the destablizing strata stuff to consider. That might add some confidence ... might.  Anyway, adding to... the MJO is now stronger/strengthened in the cluster heading into Phase 8 -1 , which is more notoriously correlated to negative temperature anomalies over eastern N/A.

Despite the mega ridge next week ... and the Euro's forgetting what season it is in the days afterward... those two longer termed environmental signals cue a teleconnector convergence for ... not assuming warmer times are here to stay - the nice way to put it.  It's also [unfortunately] two forcing sources, both having the worst handling performance by guidances et al and regardless therein.  So, it's really more like waiting on it then you're suddenly getting modeled fun in the dailies while you're waiting on it... 

The simple version: MJO is a Pacific/tropical forcing that is correlated to +PNA [eventually]... it would be interesting to see that happen under a -AO umbrella, should all this come to pass. Talking ... end of the month first two weeks of March..

But, we'll see if yesterday's distraction does or doesn't return ... I gotta say - the pattern after these warm days this week, ... it seems like there's several different forcing's vying for proxy right now.  The early spring, the polar field index cold and storms, the Pac +PNA that's ghostly until the models actually physically detect the MJO's presence... but non of these aspects appear influenced by the other, leaving one to have pretty much no idea which one would take control.  Each model seems to favor either..

 

[Typhoon Tip]

It's a physics problem ... ice changes phase to liquid slower than aerated snow pack, because it simply has more mass per volume in the solid phase state, thus requiring more thermal input.

As we get toward the end of the season, ...the snow tends to be packed down and/or granulate - which is essentially ice cubes for brevity.  Employing the above ... the "base" on the ski slopes may in fact appear more resistant to warm days than a similar base depth would from a fortunate series of well-timed early season snows ..late October through early December.  But, that's kind of a misnomer, the word "resistant" - because frozen water is not resisting warm air any more or less in either case ... It's a mass problem -

[tamarack]

2 hours ago, dendrite said:

GFS has CON’s first ever Feb 70F.

Same for Augusta.  I'll take the under (though I said the same in March 2012 and lost big time.)

[gravitylover]

2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

It's a physics problem ... ice changes phase to liquid slower than aerated snow pack, because it simply has more mass per volume in the solid phase state, thus requiring more thermal input.

As we get toward the end of the season, ...the snow tends to be packed down and/or granular - which is essentially ice cubes for brevity.  Employing the above ... the "base" on the ski slopes may in fact appear more resistant to warm days than a similar base depth would from a fortunate series of well-timed early season snows ..late October through early December.  But, that's kind of a misnomer, the word "resistant" - because frozen water is not resisting warm air any more or less in either case ... It's a mass problem -

Yeah go on, bring science into an emotional debate. See where that gets ya  

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Same for Augusta.  I'll take the under (though I said the same in March 2012 and lost big time.)

I'm not sure we should any longer...

At some point we have to capitulate to the absurd ... much to the chagrin for harm to personal druthers in the matter.  After all, extremes do happen from time to time, and it would be nice to actually call one out ahead of time, rather than taking the "safe" route all the time.  This just "seems" like a nice neat, tidy period of two to three days being served up on an easy decision plate - in fact, the onus is really shifted away from climo and stuff ...more toward proving it can't at this point.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 minutes ago, gravitylover said:

Yeah go on, bring science into an emotional debate. See where that gets ya  

Oh .. heh, I only caught the tail end of that exchange - I wasn't aware of the tenor of it..

[dendrite]

5 minutes ago, tamarack said:

Same for Augusta.  I'll take the under (though I said the same in March 2012 and lost big time.)

March 2012 at least already had us past snowpack and mud season. All of the sun’s energy went toward warming the ground and we maximized on that record airmass. We will still have pack and mud for the duration of this so there will be albedo effects and sfc latent cooling with the melting and evaporation. CON can torch with the best of them lately so it wouldn’t shock me if they touch 70F...but it’ll probably be something like 62 or 63 here at the same time. 

[eyewall]

They won't shut down after this week but the conditions will suck. This is where I work hard to avoid a meltdown.

[wx2fish]

3 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Wx2fish will be feverishly tapping trees.

Yep. Tapped 2/3 of them so far. It's too warm too early though for liking

[wxeyeNH]

Now, this is a torch.   12Z GFS maxs temps for Wednesday.  I believe the NH state February record is 72F.  Would be quite a feat to break that and on the 21rst of the month.  Meanwhile the big ice fishing derby on Newfound Lake next weekend.  Ice is very thick right now but wonder how much deterioration by next weekend?

[Cold Miser]

11 minutes ago, wxeyeNH said:

Now, this is a torch.   12Z GFS maxs temps for Wednesday.  I believe the NH state February record is 72F.  Would be quite a feat to break that and on the 21rst of the month.  Meanwhile the big ice fishing derby on Newfound Lake next weekend.  Ice is very thick right now but wonder how much deterioration by next weekend?

 

Winter lives long on Martha's Vineyard.

[dendrite]

10 minutes ago, Cold Miser said:

Winter lives long on Martha's Vineyard.

 Congrats James.

[LurkerBoy]

Odds of backdoor extinguished ?

[Damage In Tolland]

Another shut down suite of runs today.

[HoarfrostHubb]

February torches in back to back years.  Almost to the day

[Typhoon Tip]

 

Noticing a tendency for the 12z versions of the Euro to look more ominous with the areal extent and longevity of this ... spectacular ridge expression. It's impressive regardless, but these 12z runs have been the under-scoring variations.

This run's no different!  wow... In April...even next months, those 850 mb thermal layouts together with those synoptic details would have it 75 on Tuesday and probably soaring to 83 or so on Wednesday. ...Don't know 'bout February though... 

Thing is,... these Euro runs have been way cleaner with the sky and RH levels than the others. The GFS for example is trying everything in its power to make it this misty drizzly warm sector sky contaminated and dimming the fact that the sun is seasonally fledgling even further.  But there is a kind of climate for these early continental warm conveyor patterns and they are usually bone dry... In fact, if it does succeed 70F those two days, it's likely to be with very low DPs.  Although this particular 12z run of the GFS looks drier...  I think that's the way to go, and probably we get into the 90th percentile of what the sun can deliver ... crazy, but it's the perfect heat storm for smashing records in that look... 

Have to remember... major anomalies sometimes happen?  We can't keep "taking the under.." because we sound precocious and in fact, that probably really is the course of least regret.  Just keep in mind, that fantastic events happen too, albeit extraordinarily rare.  Maybe this is one of those... 80 in February?  I tell ya - I was the heaviest doubter, at least writing about it, that I didn't believe it because of the persistence of the runs over recent years ...YEARS really, to over sell warm spells... This one just seemingly in defiance of that persistence.  interesting.

[LurkerBoy]

1 hour ago, Typhoon Tip said:

 

Noticing a tendency for the 12z versions of the Euro to look more ominous with the areal extent and longevity of this ... spectacular ridge expression. It's impressive regardless, but these 12z runs have been the under-scoring variations.

This run's no different!  wow... In April...even next months, those 850 mb thermal layouts together with those synoptic details would have it 75 on Tuesday and probably soaring to 83 or so on Wednesday. ...Don't know 'bout February though... 

Thing is,... these Euro runs have been way cleaner with the sky and RH levels than the others. The GFS for example is trying everything in its power to make it this misty drizzly warm sector sky contaminated and dimming the fact that the sun is seasonally fledgling even further.  But there is a kind of climate for these early continental warm conveyor patterns and they are usually bone dry... In fact, if it does succeed 70F those two days, it's likely to be with very low DPs.  Although this particular 12z run of the GFS looks drier...  I think that's the way to go, and probably we get into the 90th percentile of what the sun can deliver ... crazy, but it's the perfect heat storm for smashing records in that look... 

Have to remember... major anomalies sometimes happen?  We can't keep "taking the under.." because we sound precocious and in fact, that probably really is the course of least regret.  Just keep in mind, that fantastic events happen too, albeit extraordinarily rare.  Maybe this is one of those... 80 in February?  I tell ya - I was the heaviest doubter, at least writing about it, that I didn't believe it because of the persistence of the runs over recent years ...YEARS really, to over sell warm spells... This one just seemingly in defiance of that persistence.  interesting.

Your writing, while good and well thought-out, never fails to make me feel uneasy. You'd be a great science fiction author. 

So do we think that records get smashed both days? And as far as sensible weather, will it be 70 and sunny like Easter or an overcast 70 like Xmas? lol

[Typhoon Tip]

17 minutes ago, LurkerBoy said:

Your writing, while good and well thought-out, never fails to make me feel uneasy. You'd be a great science fiction author. 

So do we think that records get smashed both days? And as far as sensible weather, will it be 70 and sunny like Easter or an overcast 70 like Xmas? lol

Well, like I said... the Euro has been bone dry, indicating/implicating a 'cleaner' sky texture with it's low RH ...subsidence (which dries more) in a warm, well-mixed boundary layer, with parallel flow over the top arc of that ridge.   Man, in June, that would be a juggernaut heat pop there... But under the pallid suns of February ...?

I think the 74 range is doable.  The Euro's consistency has been nothing shy of stunning, and seeing the GFS finally capitulating ..not sure what else besides climo - which is always a bad argument when plied alone - there is to offset this. 

I don't have a cache of records per date I don't know, but my rip-and-read response is that yeah...some records should fall.

[eyewall]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

February torches in back to back years.  Almost to the day

It would be awesome if we ended up with another Pi Day event

[weathafella]

EPS is rather wintry in the longer range.