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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

Posted
Posted

Been waiting for Euro to start correcting it's ridge signal next week, and I thought we were seeing that begin on the 00z?    This runs seems to have gone back to the previous appeal with that... Yikes. 

+14.5 at 850 mb is the warmest yet!   It's also a day longer to collapse the pattern than the 00z ...about mid way between it and the previous amount of duration from the run 24 hours ago. 

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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welp.. .I had my doubts, and heh, still do  ... but, if it comes to fruition, can't say I mind.

I sort of start checking out after the perennial solar nadir ends on February 10 anyway ... Slow at first, and if the season's magnificent, yeah, I'll put it away and celebrate in hypocrisy with y'all...  But my own variation on unrealistic dreams are already visualizing the warm season.  

Too bad the clocks aren't already moved ahead ... then we might actually enjoy that after work.  

This Euro run?  It's spring man. Not sure that's even arguable beyond the expectation that no model really does that well that far out. But it terms the warm up with more SE ridging and no west based-NAO ...  That'll even start greening open fields 

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EastonSN+

EastonSN+

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25 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

welp.. .I had my doubts, and heh, still do  ... but, if it comes to fruition, can't say I mind.

I sort of start checking out after the perennial solar nadir ends on February 10 anyway ... Slow at first, and if the season's magnificent, yeah, I'll put it away and celebrate in hypocrisy with y'all...  But my own variation on unrealistic dreams are already visualizing the warm season.  

Too bad the clocks aren't already moved ahead ... then we might actually enjoy that after work.  

This Euro run?  It's spring man. Not sure that's even arguable beyond the expectation that no model really does that well that far out. But it terms the warm up with more SE ridging and no west based-NAO ...  That'll even start greening open fields 

So the EPS does not migrate the block west at all?

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Typhoon Tip

Typhoon Tip

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21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

but THAT Euro run has a couple of very warm days then a transition back to seasonable with a snow threat on the 23rd 24th

I don't think seasonality is a fair and objective observation of that synoptic appeal in that time frame, Steve. It has the SE ridge in tact and lots of warmish 850 mb temps near by - which is spring-like.

That's the point.  And snow in the spring?  I think we can  both agree that's common around here. 

I think what's going to happen here over the next couple weeks is a lot of denial, and those objective observers that bring doses of reality ...spark vitriol from those steeped in it. 

If the model runs changes appreciably away from that look in future cycles, we can re-engage wintry appeals if/when necessary, but THAT run is spring-like.  There was no other point made -

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Hazey

Hazey

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Surprised it was that winter, as New England generally had AN snowfall and BN temps, and most of NNE had much above snow - top snow winter on record for both BTV and PWM.

It wasn't...lol. I looked a bit more and I was wrong on the year. The correct info was in a tweet that has long since been buried. I know it was in the 70's but not sure exactly what year.
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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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2 minutes ago, Hazey said:


It wasn't...lol. I looked a bit more and I was wrong on the year. The correct info was in a tweet that has long since been buried. I know it was in the 70's but not sure exactly what year.

Good chance '73-'74 was the year...absolutely putrid in Maine.

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weathafella

weathafella

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Long range stuff like EPS/ weeklies has lost the BN pattern, but does show storminess. So they’ll likely be lots of rain/ snow lines to track in Morch. Just don’t be expecting big events or all snow events . Not a great look with no cold 

EPS is cold enough 

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