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February is upon us - pattern change is in order

Baroclinic Zone

By Baroclinic Zone,
in New England

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Baroclinic Zone

Baroclinic Zone

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Just now, dryslot said:

Well which is it? Seems like you want it both ways.............lol, Myself, Its Feb, Its suppose to be full on winter, I'll wait until april to change thoughts of the next season.

Storm can still be south of you and give me rain.  Honestly, I think you get some snow as do i.  We compromise. 

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dryslot

dryslot

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Storm can still be south of you and give me rain.  Honestly, I think you get some snow as do i.  We compromise. 

I agree, I don't see this going way north either, But i think from here south has a good shot, I'm not expecting a whole lot anyways, Maybe 3-4", It won't be hanging around very long either, Quick hitter, If it made it into far NNE, There would be a lot of unhappy folks here with that track.

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Just now, dendrite said:

 

In like a lion?

Pretty classic bowling ball potential "squeezed under New England" with that pattern. I'd like to see the SE ridge a little less obvious there though if I'm nitpicking...could create a meat grinder with the NAO blocking offsetting to the northeast.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

I dont see it...

 

But anyways..that has the "little critters that bite" look to it. Nice compact ball of vorticity aimed at the waters S of the LI

 

 

Feb14_12zEuro.gif

It sure does have a juicy look.

One thing I noticed last night was that even north of the "goods" there was some really nice snow growth modeled. Worth keeping an eye on that some. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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1 minute ago, CT Rain said:

It sure does have a juicy look.

One thing I noticed last night was that even north of the "goods" there was some really nice snow growth modeled. Worth keeping an eye on that some. 

Yeah this is a pretty classic setup for a fluff bomb even well north of the best LL forcing. Someone who is going to get 3 tenths of L.E. gets surprised when they are shoveling 7 inches of feathers...that type of thing. There's actually some sneaky potential for a little instability with that vortmax looking like it is. Not predicting it yet, but this could go pretty solidly into warning territory if we see that vortmax trend a bit stronger/compact with the neg tilt there.

 

Anyways, still 3.5 days out...so plenty of time for changes for better or worse.

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CT Rain

CT Rain

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah this is a pretty classic setup for a fluff bomb even well north of the best LL forcing. Someone who is going to get 3 tenths of L.E. gets surprised when they are shoveling 7 inches of feathers...that type of thing. There's actually some sneaky potential for a little instability with that vortmax looking like it is. Not predicting it yet, but this could go pretty solidly into warning territory if we see that vortmax trend a bit stronger/compact with the neg tilt there.

 

Anyways, still 3.5 days out...so plenty of time for changes for better or worse.

Also plenty of moisture involved so we get a pretty good thump. 

Definitely a chance for 6"+ of snow... but the timing is going to make this pretty low impact given how quickly its in and out with most falling during the overnight. 

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ORH_wxman

ORH_wxman

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Just now, CT Rain said:

Also plenty of moisture involved so we get a pretty good thump. 

Definitely a chance for 6"+ of snow... but the timing is going to make this pretty low impact given how quickly its in and out with most falling during the overnight. 

Yeah I can easily see people wondering how it even snowed 6" 24 hours later when its already compacted and melted quite a bit. Overnight Sat night is about as low impact as it gets from a DOT standpoint. They always loved those storms with that type of timing.

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